US · NGVC
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores
- Headquarters
- Lakewood, CO 80228
- Website
- naturalgrocers.com
Price · as of 2025-09-30
$29.57
Market cap 622.58M
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $19.41 | -34.36% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $9.98 | -66.25% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $11.96 | -59.56% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $30.41 | +2.84% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $1.40 | $3.76 | |||
| 2012 | $14.98 | $28.95 | $460.15 | $4.72 | $10.15 |
| 2013 | $27.72 | $36.20 | $498.25 | $6.11 | $16.45 |
| 2014 | $17.86 | $28.18 | $404.87 | $7.38 | $16.92 |
| 2015 | $14.36 | $25.64 | $335.17 | $8.51 | $19.64 |
| 2016 | $8.84 | $32.25 | $115.64 | $7.95 | $10.49 |
| 2017 | $5.90 | $17.58 | $2.61 | $7.27 | $5.14 |
| 2018 | $12.72 | $22.40 | $0.00 | $9.16 | $10.24 |
| 2019 | $6.76 | $23.94 | $0.00 | $8.87 | $5.99 |
| 2020 | $11.26 | $4.50 | $0.00 | $7.71 | $19.82 |
| 2021 | $10.99 | $14.09 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.97 |
| 2022 | $8.52 | $12.67 | $0.00 | $5.36 | $10.55 |
| 2023 | $16.14 | $6.46 | $0.00 | $6.40 | $12.82 |
| 2024 | $42.97 | $17.19 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $24.66 |
| 2025 | $24.94 | $19.41 | $0.00 | $11.96 | $30.41 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s (NGVC) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $19.41
- Current price
- $29.57
- AI upside
- -34.36%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$9.98
-66.25% upside
Graham-Dodd
$11.96
-59.56% upside
Graham Formula
$30.41
+2.84% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| NGVC | Natural Grocers by Vitami… | $29.57 | 622.58M | -34% | -66% | -60% | +3% | 12.32 | 2.69 | 0.43 | 9.46 | 34.17 | 2.85 | 29.90% | 4.66% | 3.49% | 24.02% | 9.40% | 7.01% | 1.56 | 20.24 | 1.06 | 0.18 | 3.36 | 3605.00% | 719.00% | -3129.00% | 4.21% | 0.35 | 4.64% | 1.92% | 23.70% | 6.12% | 14.31 | 36.80 | 0.67 | 3.37 |
| AVO | Mission Produce, Inc. | $14.19 | 1.01B | +79% | -66% | -27% | -25% | 21.45 | 1.48 | 0.62 | 10.12 | 1115.14 | 1.59 | 11.55% | 5.14% | 2.71% | 7.14% | 6.25% | 4.14% | 0.46 | 7.61 | 1.95 | 1.27 | -0.48 | 192.00% | 1268.00% | -3922.00% | 4.28% | 0.66 | 4.97% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 24.85% | 14.99 | 28.82 | 0.77 | 3.73 |
| DDL | Dingdong (Cayman) Limited | $2.84 | 615.35M | +62% | -34% | -47% | +55% | 16.98 | 6.47 | 0.22 | 7.77 | — | 6.47 | 30.11% | 0.93% | 1.28% | 51.54% | -39.61% | 4.11% | 3.79 | 4.54 | 1.02 | 0.88 | 4.44 | -29565.00% | 1550.00% | -36133.00% | 16.07% | 0.18 | -161.46% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 23.29% | 17.46 | 4.51 | 0.16 | 1.22 |
| DNUT | Krispy Kreme, Inc. | $3.75 | 642.38M | +469% | -34% | — | -97% | 337.57 | 0.92 | 0.63 | 11.10 | — | -1.43 | 75.43% | -0.52% | 0.19% | 0.27% | -0.14% | 0.10% | 1.19 | -0.15 | 0.36 | 0.20 | 6.20 | -10778.00% | -123.00% | -122.00% | -7.17% | 0.09 | -3.01% | 2.27% | 765.50% | 6.06% | -271.17 | -31.60 | 1.42 | 0.60 |
| EPC | Edgewell Personal Care Co… | $22.74 | 1.06B | +107% | -71% | — | -84% | 31.02 | 0.51 | 0.35 | 11.34 | — | -1.20 | 41.60% | 4.34% | 1.14% | 1.62% | 3.43% | 0.68% | 0.99 | 1.32 | 1.76 | 0.74 | 7.09 | -7310.00% | -134.00% | -7628.00% | 5.25% | 0.21 | 1.47% | 3.72% | 115.40% | 15.17% | 21.79 | 50.84 | 0.95 | 1.43 |
| HLF | Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. | $19.52 | 2.02B | +570% | -61% | -74% | +1% | 8.68 | -3.84 | 0.39 | 7.05 | — | -2.13 | 75.61% | 8.76% | 4.53% | -34.61% | 26.90% | 8.26% | -4.54 | 2.06 | 1.13 | 0.44 | 3.53 | -1200.00% | 89.00% | 5477.00% | 12.79% | 0.33 | 18.57% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 3.83% | 8.98 | 15.68 | 0.79 | 2.46 |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son,… | $82.61 | 967.14M | +19% | -69% | -71% | -28% | 12.54 | 2.05 | 0.67 | 7.45 | — | 2.15 | 18.38% | 7.65% | 5.32% | 17.25% | 15.31% | 10.59% | 0.28 | 23.85 | 2.22 | 0.50 | 0.90 | -233.00% | 379.00% | -12749.00% | -2.73% | 0.20 | -4.82% | 3.30% | 41.40% | 3.37% | 9.92 | -41.69 | 0.76 | 5.09 |
| KLC | KinderCare Learning Compa… | $3.50 | 414.11M | +645% | +105% | — | — | -18.59 | 2.00 | 0.65 | 19.32 | — | -2.52 | 23.68% | 2.98% | -3.49% | -13.54% | 2.54% | -2.54% | 2.77 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.44 | 11.10 | -20749.00% | 609.00% | -10942.00% | -0.95% | 0.28 | -0.53% | 18.54% | -344.70% | 30.52% | 51.13 | -246.78 | 1.52 | 1.12 |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | $138.98 | 956.33M | +597% | -73% | -12% | -31% | 15.79 | 1.03 | 0.41 | 7.36 | — | 1.03 | 9.51% | 4.93% | 2.61% | 6.78% | 5.36% | 3.21% | 0.59 | 2.27 | 3.52 | 0.65 | 2.49 | -3107.00% | 825.00% | -34937.00% | 45.83% | 1.56 | 27.18% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 50.06% | 12.64 | 3.30 | 0.62 | 3.70 |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc… | $39.15 | 577.6M | +57% | -63% | -5% | +15% | 9.55 | 1.09 | 0.23 | 6.97 | 77.35 | 1.15 | 28.57% | 3.11% | 2.43% | 12.00% | 6.98% | 5.68% | 0.69 | 18.70 | 1.13 | 0.72 | 2.09 | 1235.00% | 376.00% | 9428.00% | 6.40% | 0.51 | 4.84% | 2.47% | 23.60% | 7.03% | 10.66 | 22.30 | 0.33 | 3.80 |
About Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; bulk food products; private label products comprising pasta, pasta sauce, ketchup, canned beans and vegetables, frozen vegetables, frozen fruits, frozen meals, frozen pizza, bread, baking mixes, plant based butter, olive and coconut oil, coconut milk, honey, maple syrup, preserves, chocolate, coffee, bacon, beef jerky, canned seafood, popcorn, tortilla chips, taco shells, eggs, cheese, apple sauce, apple cider vinegar, spring water, paper products, cleaning products, and other products; dry, frozen, and canned groceries; meat and seafood products; dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs; prepared foods; bread and baked products; beverages; and beer, wine, and hard cider products. Its stores also provide private label dietary supplements; body care products consisting of cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care products containing natural and organic ingredients; pet care and food products; books and handouts; and household and general merchandise, including cleaning supplies, paper products, and dish and laundry soaps, as well as other common household products, such as diapers. The company operates its retail stores under the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark. As of February 1, 2022, it operated 162 stores in 20 states. The company also offers science-based nutrition education programs to help customers make informed health and nutrition choices. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.
- CEO
- Kemper Isely
- Employees
- 3.33K
- Beta
- 1.32
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($9.98 ÷ $29.57) − 1 = -66.25% (DCF, example).