US · HLMN
Hillman Solutions Corp.
- Sector
- Industrials · Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
- Headquarters
- Cincinnati, OH 45231
- Website
- hillmangroup.com
Price · as of 2025-12-27
$7.86
Market cap 1.62B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $28.80 | +266.41% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $3.25 | -58.65% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $3.04 | -61.39% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $2.71 | -65.47% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | |||||
| 2012 | |||||
| 2013 | |||||
| 2014 | |||||
| 2015 | |||||
| 2016 | |||||
| 2017 | |||||
| 2018 | |||||
| 2019 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| 2020 | $10.31 | $25.88 | $0.68 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2021 | $10.92 | $32.11 | $0.00 | $0.99 | $0.00 |
| 2022 | $8.23 | $31.11 | $0.00 | $1.33 | $0.00 |
| 2023 | $9.71 | $27.01 | $0.00 | $1.45 | $0.00 |
| 2024 | $9.55 | $31.10 | $0.00 | $2.24 | $0.70 |
| 2025 | $8.12 | $28.80 | $0.00 | $3.04 | $2.71 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Hillman Solutions Corp.'s (HLMN) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $28.80
- Current price
- $7.86
- AI upside
- +266.41%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$3.25
-58.65% upside
Graham-Dodd
$3.04
-61.39% upside
Graham Formula
$2.71
-65.47% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| HLMN | Hillman Solutions Corp. | $7.86 | 1.62B | +266% | -59% | -61% | -65% | 39.78 | 1.31 | 1.03 | 9.30 | 32.55 | -10.80 | 39.64% | 7.57% | 2.60% | 3.34% | 4.23% | 1.72% | 0.67 | 2.08 | 2.51 | 0.55 | 3.10 | 12222.00% | 541.00% | -6424.00% | 2.19% | 0.41 | 1.77% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.77% | 20.45 | 68.52 | 1.55 | 1.77 |
| CDRE | Cadre Holdings, Inc. | $44.39 | 1.81B | +7% | +422% | -92% | -49% | 37.30 | 4.33 | 2.37 | 18.63 | — | 24.15 | 41.14% | 11.76% | 6.37% | 14.21% | 13.05% | 6.67% | 0.77 | 8.54 | 3.48 | 2.32 | 1.45 | -1176.00% | 1762.00% | -6073.00% | 1.94% | 0.34 | 7.66% | 1.03% | 38.60% | 1.03% | 21.89 | 55.98 | 2.58 | 4.02 |
| CECO | CECO Environmental Corp. | $60.45 | 2.15B | +26% | +640% | -87% | +6% | 40.81 | 6.43 | 2.64 | 26.56 | 14.55 | -30.21 | 32.68% | 6.68% | 6.46% | 17.71% | 8.62% | 6.05% | 0.08 | 2.47 | 1.34 | 0.67 | -0.11 | 28056.00% | 3879.00% | -17349.00% | -0.27% | 0.02 | -1.43% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.79% | 39.34 | -371.07 | 2.63 | 3.43 |
| HLIO | Helios Technologies, Inc. | $71.32 | 2.36B | -53% | -79% | -84% | -92% | 31.30 | 1.41 | 1.51 | 11.13 | 1189.39 | -65.98 | 31.31% | 10.15% | 4.84% | 4.54% | 4.75% | 2.52% | 0.55 | 2.42 | 2.77 | 1.18 | 2.88 | 263.00% | -355.00% | 11862.00% | 7.79% | 0.88 | 7.14% | 0.97% | 30.50% | 8.27% | 20.14 | 17.33 | 2.04 | 2.52 |
| HNI | HNI Corporation | $44.96 | 2.15B | — | -51% | -46% | -50% | 39.53 | 1.17 | 0.75 | 15.24 | — | 16.11 | 41.43% | 8.42% | 1.91% | — | — | — | 0.89 | 6.72 | 1.24 | 0.69 | 6.09 | — | — | — | -1.96% | 0.02 | — | 2.95% | 116.40% | 6.85% | 14.88 | -84.93 | 1.25 | 1.23 |
| KMT | Kennametal Inc. | $40.28 | 3.07B | -50% | -78% | -83% | -87% | 17.98 | 1.30 | 0.85 | 7.42 | — | 1.79 | 30.41% | 7.28% | 4.73% | 7.35% | 6.02% | 3.69% | 0.50 | 5.74 | 2.46 | 1.03 | 1.71 | -1241.00% | -391.00% | -2960.00% | 7.13% | 0.49 | 6.72% | 3.69% | 66.40% | 8.18% | 15.21 | 18.24 | 1.11 | 2.73 |
| LZ | LegalZoom.com, Inc. | $7.03 | 1.25B | +431% | -6% | -91% | -77% | 80.20 | 7.20 | 1.64 | 13.05 | — | 94.99 | 65.88% | 1.90% | 2.04% | 11.64% | -28.60% | 3.41% | 0.14 | 11.10 | 0.75 | 0.71 | -2.20 | -5000.00% | 1088.00% | 4800.00% | 11.96% | 0.56 | -619.47% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.11% | 73.71 | 7.16 | 1.40 | 0.41 |
| PBI | Pitney Bowes Inc. | $10.73 | 1.85B | +240% | -60% | — | -86% | 12.88 | -2.32 | 0.98 | 9.34 | — | -1.19 | 54.10% | 20.45% | 7.65% | -20.96% | 27.64% | 4.41% | -2.77 | 3.81 | 0.71 | 0.62 | 4.77 | -17434.00% | -661.00% | 9118.00% | 16.08% | 0.24 | 28.48% | 2.74% | 35.30% | 23.04% | 9.79 | 12.64 | 2.00 | 2.29 |
| ROCK | Gibraltar Industries, Inc… | $45.48 | 1.34B | +48% | -60% | -25% | — | -30.39 | 1.42 | 1.19 | 8.18 | — | 2.69 | 26.88% | 10.81% | 8.59% | -4.44% | 11.09% | -3.31% | 0.05 | — | 1.72 | 0.64 | -0.44 | -2713.00% | -1324.00% | -4105.00% | 6.74% | 0.37 | 10.67% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.73% | 10.42 | 14.07 | 1.13 | 4.97 |
| SCS | Steelcase Inc. | $16.14 | 1.85B | +94% | -66% | -69% | -45% | 9.73 | 1.23 | 0.37 | 5.77 | 19.47 | 1.95 | 33.05% | 4.99% | 3.81% | 13.13% | 12.04% | 5.29% | 0.63 | 6.15 | 1.54 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 5000.00% | 20.00% | -6124.00% | 8.63% | 0.22 | 8.58% | 4.05% | 39.40% | 12.00% | 8.78 | 13.69 | 0.44 | 2.87 |
| VVX | V2X, Inc. | $69.75 | 2.17B | -13% | +50% | — | -59% | 28.76 | 2.06 | 0.50 | 10.19 | 22.67 | -2.69 | 8.33% | 4.34% | 1.74% | 7.38% | 7.90% | 2.35% | 1.08 | 2.29 | 1.22 | 1.09 | 2.68 | 12685.00% | 365.00% | -2985.00% | 7.59% | 0.18 | 8.96% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.06% | 15.65 | 17.88 | 0.68 | 2.31 |
About Hillman Solutions Corp.
Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in North America. It offers hardware products, including anchor shackles and eye bolts, door hinges and chains, garage doors, safety hasps, gate hooks and latches, magnets, hooks and storage, corner braces and mending plates, and springs; and fasteners, such as anchors, ball bearings, bolts, kits, nails, nuts, pins, rivets, screws, spacers, threaded inserts, tools/brushes, washers, wire hardware, and other accessories. The company also offers driveway markers/reflectors, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, survey and flagging tapes, and safety and caution products; threaded rods, aluminum tubes, and slotted and aluminum angles; wall hangings, including frame hardware, hooks, picture hanging, adhesives, mirrors, wires, and accessories, as well as picture hanging and tool-free mounting products; face masks, gloves, and glasses; keys and engravings; and electrical, plumbing, and automotive products and accessories. It offers its products under the DECK PLUS, GORILLA GRIP, HILLMAN, HARDWARE Essentials, minute key, POWERPRO, OOK, Fas.n.Tite, Distinctions, AWP, OZCO, The Steel Works, and Digz brand names. The company sells its products to hardware stores, home centers, mass merchants, pet supply stores, and other retail outlets, as well as industrial original equipment manufacturers. Hillman Solutions Corp. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
- CEO
- Jon Michael Adinolfi
- Employees
- 3.89K
- Beta
- 1.66
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($3.25 ÷ $7.86) − 1 = -58.65% (DCF, example).