US · UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc.
- Sector
- Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services
- Headquarters
- San Mateo, CA 94403
- Website
- upstart.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$32.74
Market cap 2.67B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $101.67 | +210.54% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $265.69 | +711.51% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $10.41 | -68.2% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $35.93 | +9.75% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | |||||
| 2012 | |||||
| 2013 | |||||
| 2014 | |||||
| 2015 | |||||
| 2016 | |||||
| 2017 | |||||
| 2018 | |||||
| 2019 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| 2020 | $58.00 | $116.11 | $178.15 | $15.16 | $7.91 |
| 2021 | $100.08 | $174.01 | $1,097,367.21 | $18.14 | $460.95 |
| 2022 | $15.51 | $82.63 | $1,084.66 | $0.75 | $0.00 |
| 2023 | $27.34 | $33.92 | $1.84 | $0.00 | $74.86 |
| 2024 | $53.69 | $80.63 | $2.39 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2025 | $28.28 | $101.67 | $297.29 | $10.41 | $35.93 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s (UPST) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $101.67
- Current price
- $32.74
- AI upside
- +210.54%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$265.69
+711.51% upside
Graham-Dodd
$10.41
-68.2% upside
Graham Formula
$35.93
+9.75% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| UPST | Upstart Holdings, Inc. | $32.74 | 2.67B | +211% | +712% | -68% | +10% | 50.67 | 3.40 | 2.53 | 49.37 | — | 3.75 | 95.21% | 5.05% | 4.98% | 7.49% | 3.26% | 2.01% | 2.32 | 1.05 | 2.99 | 1.88 | 15.07 | -13125.00% | 5887.00% | -19421.00% | -6.12% | -0.37 | -10.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 71.94 | -23.53 | 3.63 | 1.32 |
| AX | Axos Financial, Inc. | $86.82 | 4.92B | -26% | +569% | -4% | +48% | 11.92 | 1.93 | 2.68 | 5.50 | — | 2.05 | 61.47% | 31.79% | 22.44% | 17.42% | 52.84% | 1.82% | 0.14 | 0.89 | 0.11 | 0.11 | -2.43 | -300.00% | 916.00% | 6182.00% | 8.45% | 0.02 | 53.23% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.13% | 5.76 | 8.11 | 1.83 | -0.46 |
| BGC | BGC Group, Inc | $9.52 | 4.53B | +275% | +1,938% | -76% | +47% | 30.22 | 4.82 | 1.56 | 12.68 | 125.91 | -44.99 | 89.54% | 10.52% | 5.15% | 16.56% | 12.19% | 3.87% | 1.85 | 2.52 | 89.14 | 89.14 | 2.09 | 2400.00% | 3633.00% | -10000.00% | 0.00% | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.72 | — | 1.86 | 1.97 |
| CACC | Credit Acceptance Corpora… | $473.18 | 5.22B | +70% | +10% | -31% | +32% | 12.60 | 3.51 | 2.31 | 10.58 | 14.18 | 3.51 | 98.75% | 47.63% | 18.29% | 25.90% | 11.32% | 4.38% | 4.17 | 2.38 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 5.54 | 8888.00% | 857.00% | -731.00% | 19.71% | 0.48 | 14.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.13 | 10.62 | 4.83 | 0.98 |
| JSM | Navient Corporation SR NT… | $19.37 | 5.31B | +82% | +72% | -44% | -60% | -23.76 | 0.79 | 0.61 | 1623.40 | — | 0.97 | 95.21% | 81.66% | -2.57% | -3.17% | 7.45% | -0.16% | 2.11 | 0.98 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 989.67 | -16833.00% | -1840.00% | -392.00% | 23.20% | 0.09 | 1.80% | 3.31% | -78.70% | 2086.42% | 1.92 | 11.04 | 1.57 | 0.32 |
| LAZ | Lazard Ltd | $50.60 | 4.8B | +106% | -48% | -58% | -46% | 20.91 | 5.67 | 1.55 | 13.04 | — | 10.35 | 31.79% | 13.03% | 7.43% | 31.37% | 20.99% | 4.87% | 2.95 | 4.74 | 29.35 | 31.84 | 2.39 | -1903.00% | 325.00% | -2755.00% | 10.20% | 6.66 | 33.32% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.84% | 14.11 | 11.60 | 1.84 | 2.65 |
| LMND | Lemonade, Inc. | $51.74 | 3.87B | -22% | +441% | — | — | -23.11 | 7.17 | 5.52 | -23.53 | — | 7.55 | 36.27% | -23.60% | -24.15% | -29.37% | 188.70% | -8.77% | 0.00 | — | — | — | 2.72 | -1930.00% | 3172.00% | 2452.00% | -0.68% | — | 29.86% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 3.35% | -20.94 | -132.36 | 4.94 | 1.16 |
| MC | Moelis & Company | $59.36 | 4.39B | +75% | +94% | -61% | +78% | 19.20 | 7.87 | 2.95 | 11.69 | 29.47 | 7.87 | 99.22% | 18.06% | 15.36% | 46.14% | 139.08% | 14.94% | 0.00 | — | 65.09 | 65.09 | -1.50 | 6517.00% | 2698.00% | 2999.00% | 12.07% | 63.50 | 345.89% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 7.14% | 14.48 | 7.35 | 2.62 | 3.68 |
| NNI | Nelnet, Inc. | $129.46 | 4.64B | +156% | -47% | -11% | +68% | 11.17 | 1.30 | 2.11 | 467.85 | 24.27 | 1.37 | 87.04% | 50.58% | 11.76% | 12.18% | 8.97% | 3.08% | 2.12 | 2.19 | 2666.66 | 2666.66 | 242.71 | 4602.00% | 2256.00% | -11219.00% | -1.64% | -16.50 | -0.81% | 0.90% | 10.00% | 64.15% | 8.68 | -127.05 | 4.39 | 2.49 |
| RDN | Radian Group Inc. | $34.52 | 4.7B | +46% | -24% | +16% | -40% | 8.28 | 1.01 | 3.87 | 6.80 | 147.46 | 1.01 | 92.30% | 61.19% | 46.73% | 12.39% | 16.57% | 6.94% | 0.24 | 11.64 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1.24 | 561.00% | -336.00% | -15048.00% | 6.98% | 0.32 | 9.32% | 3.02% | 25.00% | 37.30% | 7.77 | 17.62 | 4.75 | 2.08 |
| SNEX | StoneX Group Inc. | $127.50 | 6.69B | +169% | +64,309% | -85% | +99% | 14.48 | 1.86 | 0.03 | 10.73 | 132.57 | 2.70 | 1.95% | 1.55% | 0.23% | 14.97% | 9.90% | 0.84% | 7.79 | 1.39 | 1.57 | 0.71 | 8.51 | 1092.00% | 3253.00% | 87870.00% | 97.59% | 0.20 | 27.85% | 4.02% | 58.20% | 4.02% | 10.40 | 4.94 | 0.16 | 3.53 |
About Upstart Holdings, Inc.
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. Its platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its network of the company's AI-enabled bank partners. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
- CEO
- David J. Girouard
- Employees
- 1.19K
- Beta
- 2.39
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($265.69 ÷ $32.74) − 1 = +711.51% (DCF, example).