US · MAT
Mattel, Inc.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
- Headquarters
- El Segundo, CA 90245-5012
- Website
- mattel.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$14.93
Market cap 5.27B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $45.90 | +207.43% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $7.68 | -48.56% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $8.90 | -40.42% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $9.44 | -36.76% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $25.90 | $44.07 | $3.50 | $2.56 | $33.05 |
| 2012 | $33.31 | $47.82 | $4.46 | $0.00 | $23.69 |
| 2013 | $31.45 | $48.05 | $3.07 | $0.00 | $23.92 |
| 2014 | $21.84 | $36.81 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $1.83 |
| 2015 | $30.61 | $38.81 | $0.16 | $0.00 | $3.23 |
| 2016 | $24.89 | $35.09 | $1.25 | $0.00 | $3.59 |
| 2017 | $14.84 | $21.79 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $5.58 |
| 2018 | $14.49 | $31.65 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2019 | $11.67 | $47.29 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2020 | $20.98 | $39.77 | $0.41 | $0.00 | $3.50 |
| 2021 | $22.63 | $47.79 | $1.63 | $13.41 | $67.86 |
| 2022 | $16.70 | $42.97 | $0.17 | $7.48 | $8.63 |
| 2023 | $19.79 | $45.85 | $0.70 | $5.19 | $5.04 |
| 2024 | $21.00 | $51.07 | $2.60 | $10.55 | $11.11 |
| 2025 | $16.40 | $45.90 | $2.28 | $8.90 | $9.44 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Mattel, Inc.'s (MAT) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $45.90
- Current price
- $14.93
- AI upside
- +207.43%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$7.68
-48.56% upside
Graham-Dodd
$8.90
-40.42% upside
Graham Formula
$9.44
-36.76% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| MAT | Mattel, Inc. | $14.93 | 5.27B | +207% | -49% | -40% | -37% | 13.12 | 2.34 | 0.98 | 8.84 | — | 6.19 | 48.87% | 11.59% | 7.44% | 17.68% | 13.63% | 6.03% | 1.28 | 5.22 | 2.15 | 1.61 | 2.10 | -2152.00% | -59.00% | -10000.00% | 0.00% | 0.41 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 11.04 | — | 1.28 | 2.13 |
| BOOT | Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. | $189.22 | 5.77B | -19% | -36% | -68% | -31% | 27.81 | 4.45 | 2.63 | 18.17 | 123.59 | 5.75 | 37.52% | 12.52% | 9.47% | 17.44% | 12.19% | 9.72% | 0.50 | 159.89 | 2.45 | 0.25 | 1.62 | 2250.00% | 1464.00% | -10064.00% | -0.01% | 0.42 | -0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 23.08 | -7337.12 | 2.89 | 5.67 |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | $102.33 | 6B | +23,471% | -60% | — | -63% | 0.03 | 0.01 | 2.37 | 1.51 | — | 0.13 | 47.26% | 11.70% | 7.37% | 47.72% | 0.03% | 15.96% | 1.20 | 0.00 | 2.38 | 0.62 | 1.50 | -801.00% | 414.00% | 7030426.00% | 1979.09% | 0.45 | 14.31% | 925.93% | 30.00% | 929.42% | 3002.01 | 7.49 | 351.30 | 0.39 |
| KMX | CarMax, Inc. | $43.17 | 6.34B | +155% | -39% | +28% | -39% | 20.51 | 1.64 | 0.36 | 27.03 | 326.03 | 1.68 | 11.43% | 2.80% | 1.77% | 8.13% | 2.35% | 1.83% | 3.11 | 7.31 | 2.31 | 0.20 | 17.61 | 629.00% | -2.00% | -243931.00% | 1.52% | 0.28 | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.17% | 37.32 | 188.16 | 1.04 | 1.76 |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | $131.25 | 6.98B | -17% | -61% | -58% | -51% | 12.97 | 1.36 | 0.29 | 13.63 | — | 2.17 | 6.47% | 3.34% | 1.88% | 11.11% | 7.78% | 3.65% | 0.81 | 7.71 | 1.35 | 0.87 | 4.23 | -914.00% | -18.00% | -609.00% | 7.71% | 0.19 | 6.77% | 2.41% | 31.30% | 7.17% | 12.73 | 18.77 | 0.43 | 2.91 |
| LNW | Light & Wonder, Inc. | $99.75 | 8.43B | — | — | — | -34% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 70.80% | 20.95% | 10.54% | 47.97% | 12.36% | 6.12% | 6.16 | 2.28 | 1.61 | 1.06 | 3.41 | 11029.00% | 986.00% | -287.00% | — | 0.86 | 7.83% | — | 0.00% | — | — | — | — | — |
| LTH | Life Time Group Holdings,… | $27.00 | 5.95B | +10% | -61% | -36% | +38% | 15.43 | 1.84 | 1.92 | 14.08 | 12.41 | 3.37 | 88.68% | 16.07% | 12.48% | 13.03% | 4.49% | 4.69% | 2.16 | 5.85 | 0.63 | 0.44 | 7.47 | 12432.00% | 1428.00% | -14143.00% | -0.36% | 1.43 | -0.26% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 25.52 | -586.03 | 4.10 | 1.09 |
| MNSO | MINISO Group Holding Limi… | $18.02 | 5.61B | +65% | -26% | -88% | +4,259% | 16.43 | 4.20 | 2.55 | 12.31 | 2.53 | 5.01 | 44.94% | 19.51% | 15.40% | 27.05% | 49.62% | 16.17% | 0.30 | 256.83 | 2.04 | 1.50 | -1.00 | 65000.00% | 68876.00% | -1560.00% | 3.25% | 0.38 | 26.72% | 2.87% | 47.20% | 3.60% | 11.98 | 28.26 | 2.34 | 5.61 |
| TMHC | Taylor Morrison Home Corp… | $65.89 | 6.35B | +50% | -58% | +46% | -9% | 8.18 | 1.01 | 0.79 | 6.92 | — | 1.13 | 23.03% | 13.98% | 9.63% | 12.85% | 11.20% | 8.18% | 0.37 | 24.15 | 6.24 | 0.96 | 1.32 | -605.00% | -57.00% | 36468.00% | 12.62% | 0.74 | 10.49% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 9.09% | 6.97 | 9.80 | 0.97 | 3.03 |
| URBN | Urban Outfitters, Inc. | $66.20 | 5.94B | +57% | -27% | -14% | +45% | 12.74 | 2.10 | 0.96 | 8.90 | 67.86 | 2.10 | 35.97% | 9.82% | 7.54% | 17.59% | 14.97% | 9.76% | 0.44 | — | 1.51 | 0.71 | 1.18 | 1878.00% | 1107.00% | 3899.00% | 7.51% | 0.51 | 14.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.84% | 10.66 | 14.50 | 1.05 | 4.18 |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts,… | $81.80 | 6.18B | -0% | -58% | — | -70% | 31.57 | 13.02 | 4.26 | 19.50 | — | -4.55 | 58.85% | 28.41% | 13.51% | 34.53% | 9.13% | 4.59% | 6.53 | 2.92 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 6.42 | -3158.00% | 149.00% | 3320.00% | 5.27% | 0.74 | 9.92% | 2.08% | 65.80% | 6.83% | 22.38 | 28.31 | 6.36 | 1.76 |
About Mattel, Inc.
Mattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company operates through North America, International, and American Girl segments. It offers dolls and accessories, as well as content, gaming, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, Monster High, American Girl, Polly Pocket, Spirit, and Enchantimals brands; dolls and books under the American Girl brand name; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids of all ages, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Monster Trucks, Matchbox, CARS, and Mario Kart brand names; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising content, toys, live events, and other lifestyle products under the Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends, Power wheels, and Fireman Sam brands. The company also provides action figures, building sets, and games under the Masters of the Universe, MEGA, UNO, Lightyear, Jurassic World, WWE, and Star Wars brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney, NBCUniversal, WWE, Microsoft, Nickelodeon, Warner Bros, and Sanrio. It sells its products directly to consumers through its catalog, website, and proprietary retail stores; retailers, including discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; and wholesalers, as well as through agents and distributors. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.
- CEO
- Ynon Kreiz
- Employees
- 34K
- Beta
- 0.69
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($7.68 ÷ $14.93) − 1 = -48.56% (DCF, example).