US · NVAX
Novavax, Inc.
- Sector
- Healthcare · Biotechnology
- Headquarters
- Gaithersburg, MD 20878
- Website
- novavax.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$8.04
Market cap 1.65B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $61.39 | +663.56% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $1,347.77 | +16,663.31% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $12.10 | +50.51% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $190.05 | +2,263.83% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $25.80 | $640.28 | $43.73 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2012 | $41.00 | $39.67 | $2,928.03 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2013 | $119.00 | $85.23 | $1,183.24 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2014 | $185.80 | $79.94 | $598.40 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2015 | $97.60 | $39.04 | $7.84 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2016 | $29.20 | $11.68 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $971.09 |
| 2017 | $41.20 | $29.68 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2018 | $10.40 | $5.10 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2019 | $12.48 | $22.24 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $191.57 |
| 2020 | $202.77 | $93.12 | $2.42 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2021 | $72.99 | $144.55 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2022 | $6.52 | $77.18 | $275,816.22 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2023 | $5.45 | $14.19 | $1,540.48 | $0.00 | $293.36 |
| 2024 | $8.34 | $28.34 | $123.24 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2025 | $10.11 | $61.39 | $535.10 | $12.10 | $190.05 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Novavax, Inc.'s (NVAX) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $61.39
- Current price
- $8.04
- AI upside
- +663.56%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$1,347.77
+16,663.31% upside
Graham-Dodd
$12.10
+50.51% upside
Graham Formula
$190.05
+2,263.83% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| NVAX | Novavax, Inc. | $8.04 | 1.65B | +664% | +16,663% | +51% | +2,264% | 3.72 | -12.82 | 1.46 | 2.34 | — | -6.79 | 93.50% | 50.14% | 39.19% | -117.16% | -58.11% | 32.17% | -1.95 | 24.98 | 2.13 | 1.83 | 0.02 | -30650.00% | 6469.00% | 14940.00% | -15.28% | -0.53 | 25.92% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.29% | 2.04 | -4.60 | 1.02 | -1.62 |
| CVAC | CureVac N.V. | $4.66 | 1.05B | +3,460% | -35% | +67% | +15,600% | 3.05 | 0.84 | 1.09 | 0.65 | — | 0.87 | 80.23% | 33.20% | 30.30% | 31.46% | 74.77% | 23.99% | 0.06 | — | 7.28 | 7.16 | -2.11 | -16102.00% | 89554.00% | -12582.00% | 14.31% | 1.41 | 41.31% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 14.10% | 0.77 | 1.64 | 0.25 | 2.92 |
| NKTR | Nektar Therapeutics | $68.98 | 1.4B | -92% | -92% | — | — | -1.52 | 2.98 | 1.84 | -0.33 | — | 2.98 | 68.82% | -106.88% | -120.86% | -124.10% | 143.06% | -33.90% | 1.69 | -3.74 | 4.26 | 4.18 | -0.67 | -6017.00% | 922.00% | -842.00% | -97.90% | -2.86 | 241.42% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 15.02% | -0.27 | -0.16 | 0.29 | -16.15 |
| NTLA | Intellia Therapeutics, In… | $13.78 | 1.6B | +45% | -49% | — | — | -3.22 | 2.49 | 24.73 | -3.27 | — | 2.49 | 76.47% | -651.67% | -609.85% | -67.26% | -110.87% | -51.06% | 0.14 | — | 5.08 | 4.42 | 0.15 | -2743.00% | 1692.00% | 0.00% | -21.19% | -3.36 | -89.17% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.97% | -2.99 | -3.71 | 19.46 | 0.53 |
| ORIC | ORIC Pharmaceuticals, Inc… | $13.45 | 1.31B | — | — | — | — | -9.41 | 3.17 | — | -7.40 | — | 3.17 | 0.00% | — | — | -41.27% | -272.98% | -37.79% | 0.03 | — | 14.13 | 13.79 | 0.27 | -1967.00% | — | 20.00% | -9.36% | -5.55 | -217.77% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -6.63 | -8.32 | — | 24.72 |
| PGEN | Precigen, Inc. | $3.79 | 1.14B | +633% | -73% | — | +239% | -3.94 | 12.93 | 126.87 | -3.28 | -19.23 | 33.38 | -8.71% | -3440.23% | -3216.18% | -160.80% | -3010.47% | -85.20% | 0.14 | -22504.83 | 4.76 | 4.60 | 0.19 | 2051.00% | -3695.00% | 1211.00% | -15.41% | -3.17 | -1735.60% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.73% | -3.00 | -5.28 | 103.33 | -19.72 |
| TERN | Terns Pharmaceuticals, In… | $42.12 | 3.79B | — | — | — | — | -3.12 | 0.80 | — | 0.79 | — | 0.80 | 0.00% | — | — | -29.56% | 1106.27% | -28.10% | 0.00 | — | 23.14 | 22.89 | 1.59 | -1181.00% | — | 388.00% | -25.25% | -4.47 | 760.80% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 29.11% | 0.78 | 1.13 | — | 7.82 |
| TRVI | Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. | $11.92 | 1.53B | — | — | — | — | -9.07 | 4.36 | — | -6.86 | -14.61 | 4.36 | 0.00% | — | — | -52.59% | 1707.29% | -47.84% | 0.01 | -12881.00 | 10.41 | 10.29 | 0.69 | 6207.00% | — | 2023.00% | -8.81% | -3.64 | 1269.60% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.46% | -6.36 | -8.56 | — | 19.07 |
| UPB | Upstream Bio, Inc. | $7.68 | 415.02M | +226% | +2% | -60% | — | -7.31 | 0.98 | 193.67 | 0.12 | -17.44 | 0.98 | 100.00% | -3281.18% | -2650.04% | -36.23% | 67.14% | -20.97% | 0.00 | — | 44.63 | 43.93 | 4.17 | 4190.00% | -42.00% | 5677.00% | -13.00% | -5.51 | 51.53% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 64.98% | 0.12 | 0.16 | -4.06 | 23.29 |
| WVE | Wave Life Sciences Ltd. | $13.93 | 2.59B | +134% | -54% | — | +334% | -11.43 | 4.51 | 54.67 | -8.57 | -15.69 | 4.51 | 0.00% | -504.09% | -478.33% | -56.16% | 323.63% | -108.74% | 0.03 | — | 6.47 | 6.35 | 2.86 | 7286.00% | -6055.00% | 2338.00% | -8.03% | -1.97 | 281.72% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13.17% | -8.13 | -9.34 | 40.99 | 1.20 |
| ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma, Inc. | $26.35 | 1.1B | -12% | -81% | — | +1,012% | -1.98 | 1.00 | 62.26 | 0.23 | -0.69 | 1.00 | -2682.78% | -3277.76% | -3139.76% | -361.99% | 109.71% | -71.66% | 0.00 | — | 6.21 | 6.12 | 1.95 | 28763.00% | -9000.00% | 29221.00% | -38.49% | -2.09 | 80.20% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 90.91% | 0.23 | 0.32 | -7.69 | 1.30 |
About Novavax, Inc.
Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs. The company's vaccine candidates include NVX-CoV2373, a coronavirus vaccine candidate that is in two Phase III trials, one Phase IIb trial, and one Phase I/II trial; NanoFlu, a nanoparticle seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate that is in Phase 3 clinical trial; and ResVax, a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion (F) protein nanoparticle vaccine candidate. It is also developing RSV F vaccine that is in Phase II clinical trial for older adults (60 years and older), as well as that is in Phase I clinical trial for pediatrics. It has a collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of NVX-CoV2373, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Novavax, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
- CEO
- John Charles Jacobs
- Employees
- 952
- Beta
- 2.59
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($1,347.77 ÷ $8.04) − 1 = +16,663.31% (DCF, example).