US · UGP
Ultrapar Participações S.A.
- Sector
- Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
- Headquarters
- São Paulo, SP 01317-910
- Website
- ultra.com.br
Price · as of 2024-12-31
$5.97
Market cap 5.4B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $0.20 | -96.65% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $1.58 | -73.53% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $2.30 | -61.47% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $5.50 | -7.87% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | $5.49 | $5.15 | $1,105.52 | $0.60 | $0.00 |
| 2011 | $7.82 | $6.63 | $164.52 | $0.10 | $1.50 |
| 2012 | $9.17 | $7.07 | $0.14 | $0.20 | $1.50 |
| 2013 | $8.21 | $6.39 | $0.35 | $0.10 | $2.00 |
| 2014 | $6.76 | $3.87 | $0.71 | $0.10 | $4.00 |
| 2015 | $7.20 | $4.18 | $0.03 | $0.30 | $5.00 |
| 2016 | $8.59 | $6.09 | $0.09 | $0.10 | $1.20 |
| 2017 | $9.29 | $4.19 | $0.00 | $0.30 | $3.10 |
| 2018 | $5.69 | $4.64 | $0.00 | $0.10 | $1.90 |
| 2019 | $3.18 | $4.26 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2020 | $3.13 | $2.34 | $0.80 | $1.50 | $0.00 |
| 2021 | $2.23 | $0.89 | $141.79 | $0.50 | $7.90 |
| 2022 | $2.44 | $0.98 | $1,085.74 | $1.70 | $11.60 |
| 2023 | $5.54 | $3.58 | $114.01 | $3.20 | $0.00 |
| 2024 | $2.78 | $1.11 | $6.28 | $2.30 | $5.50 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Ultrapar Participações S.A.'s (UGP) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $0.20
- Current price
- $5.97
- AI upside
- -96.65%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$1.58
-73.53% upside
Graham-Dodd
$2.30
-61.47% upside
Graham Formula
$5.50
-7.87% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| UGP | Ultrapar Participações S.… | $5.97 | 5.4B | -81% | -74% | -61% | -8% | 7.04 | 1.10 | 0.12 | 5.49 | — | 1.26 | 6.45% | 3.80% | 1.77% | 16.49% | 13.62% | 6.07% | 1.04 | 3.70 | 1.53 | 1.13 | 2.71 | -452.00% | 591.00% | -2396.00% | 11.71% | 0.36 | 8.31% | 5.01% | 35.30% | 5.91% | 5.48 | 14.27 | 0.21 | 4.68 |
| AROC | Archrock, Inc. | $35.33 | 6.2B | +22% | +17% | -86% | +86% | 19.91 | 4.30 | 4.31 | 10.39 | 26.46 | 5.25 | 48.57% | 38.65% | 21.63% | 22.90% | 11.79% | 7.89% | 1.62 | 3.48 | 1.54 | 0.01 | 2.85 | 7524.00% | 2870.00% | 6956.00% | 1.86% | 3.16 | 3.22% | 2.21% | 43.90% | 2.21% | 15.34 | 73.85 | 5.93 | 1.43 |
| CRC | California Resources Corp… | $58.84 | 5.25B | -25% | -39% | -20% | +6% | 8.45 | 0.90 | 1.07 | 3.74 | — | 0.90 | 40.65% | 22.02% | 12.72% | 13.06% | 14.11% | 6.75% | 0.35 | 7.48 | 1.04 | 0.86 | 0.79 | -4062.00% | 512.00% | -2391.00% | 11.02% | 0.62 | 10.41% | 3.56% | 30.10% | 9.60% | 6.19 | 11.51 | 1.36 | 1.58 |
| CVI | CVR Energy, Inc. | $24.16 | 2.43B | +32% | -59% | -64% | -97% | 92.80 | 3.43 | 0.35 | 6.96 | 33.99 | 3.43 | 4.18% | 2.02% | 0.38% | 3.77% | 7.84% | 0.67% | 2.51 | 1.38 | 1.79 | 1.06 | 2.40 | 27303.00% | -590.00% | -12384.00% | -1.64% | 0.20 | -2.22% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 26.38 | -93.30 | 0.53 | 2.42 |
| MGY | Magnolia Oil & Gas Corpor… | $27.82 | 5.03B | +24% | -54% | -64% | -51% | 15.71 | 2.73 | 4.04 | 6.14 | — | 2.73 | 46.70% | 33.48% | 24.79% | 17.50% | 17.18% | 11.78% | 0.20 | 20.32 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.14 | -979.00% | -31.00% | -523.00% | 7.72% | 3.05 | 19.81% | 2.13% | 33.50% | 6.46% | 12.35 | 13.26 | 4.14 | 4.93 |
| MTDR | Matador Resources Company | $51.40 | 6.39B | +80% | -13% | +9% | +55% | 7.83 | 1.19 | 1.84 | 3.62 | — | 1.19 | 43.74% | 32.46% | 20.76% | 16.02% | 13.23% | 8.12% | 0.37 | 5.69 | 0.79 | 0.01 | 0.86 | -1471.00% | 510.00% | -1371.00% | 3.58% | 2.35 | 3.23% | 2.42% | 18.90% | 3.25% | 7.45 | 36.61 | 2.42 | 2.07 |
| PBF | PBF Energy Inc. | $35.60 | 4.16B | -5% | -56% | -35% | -89% | -27.98 | 0.84 | 0.15 | -27.07 | — | 0.84 | -1.95% | -0.19% | -0.54% | -2.95% | -0.49% | -1.25% | 0.55 | -0.30 | 1.21 | 0.46 | -9.36 | -6978.00% | -1142.00% | 12538.00% | -17.44% | -0.02 | -10.43% | 2.82% | -78.80% | 2.82% | -126.41 | -8.76 | 0.23 | 3.01 |
| TGS | Transportadora de Gas del… | $29.62 | 4.46B | -39% | +41% | -31% | +99% | 13.56 | 2.25 | 4.16 | 6.19 | 0.92 | 2.25 | 52.33% | 46.44% | 30.68% | 18.07% | 17.69% | 11.02% | 0.24 | 10.06 | 2.73 | 2.62 | 0.61 | 147407.00% | 2471.00% | 6380.00% | 3.87% | 1.31 | 9.65% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 8.68% | 8.48 | 24.45 | 3.94 | 3.87 |
| VAL | Valaris Limited | $95.85 | 6.64B | +12% | -53% | +19% | +21% | 9.11 | 2.06 | 2.76 | 8.94 | 5.34 | 2.06 | 25.03% | 20.93% | 41.49% | 26.53% | 14.59% | 14.76% | 0.38 | 5.02 | 1.72 | 1.57 | 0.74 | 17070.00% | 27.00% | -30331.00% | 3.10% | 0.79 | 5.96% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.74% | 14.37 | 35.16 | 3.01 | 3.33 |
| VIST | Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C… | $57.74 | 6.02B | +58% | +1,000% | -28% | +308% | 9.18 | 2.70 | 2.66 | 4.71 | 58.30 | 2.77 | 76.20% | 37.95% | 28.98% | 33.30% | 24.53% | 13.98% | 0.95 | 9.30 | 0.99 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 1575.00% | 4098.00% | -67354.00% | -2.13% | 0.91 | -4.54% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.28% | 8.26 | -55.24 | 3.13 | 2.22 |
| VVV | Valvoline Inc. | $37.80 | 4.81B | -5% | -36% | -85% | -41% | 18.51 | 11.52 | 2.28 | 10.80 | 993.60 | -9.70 | 38.50% | 22.80% | 12.32% | 80.40% | 15.50% | 8.25% | 4.93 | 5.27 | 0.70 | 0.41 | 3.16 | 186.00% | 564.00% | -663.00% | 0.97% | 0.86 | 2.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.97% | 14.15 | 145.18 | 3.23 | 2.22 |
About Ultrapar Participações S.A.
Ultrapar Participações S.A. engages in the gas distribution, fuel distribution, and storage businesses primarily in Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Venezuela, other Latin American countries, the United States, Canada, the Far East, Europe, and internationally. Its Gas Distribution segment distributes liquefied petroleum gas to residential, commercial, and industrial consumers primarily in the South, Southeast, and Northeast regions of Brazil. The company's Fuel Distribution segment distributes and markets gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and lubricants; operates convenience stores; and offers lubricant-changing and automotive specialized services. The company's Storage segment operates liquid bulk terminals primarily in the Southeast and Northeast regions of Brazil. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated through 7,104 Ipiranga service stations and 1,841 AmPm convenience stores; 1,149 Jet Oil franchises; 4 distribution centers; and 7 Ultracargo terminals with storage capacity of 983 thousand cubic meters. It also operates Abastece Aí, a digital payments app; and offers Km de Vantagens, a loyalty program. The company was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
- CEO
- Rodrigo de Almeida Pizzinatto
- Employees
- 10K
- Beta
- 0.58
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($1.58 ÷ $5.97) − 1 = -73.53% (DCF, example).