US · AA
Alcoa Corporation
- Sector
- Basic Materials · Aluminum
- Headquarters
- Pittsburgh, PA 15212-5858
- Website
- alcoa.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$62.63
Market cap 16.08B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $38.10 | -39.17% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $29.01 | -53.68% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $39.47 | -36.98% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $55.13 | -11.98% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | |||||
| 2012 | |||||
| 2013 | |||||
| 2014 | $30.45 | ||||
| 2015 | $21.64 | $21.11 | $0.28 | $27.27 | $202.30 |
| 2016 | $32.98 | $21.45 | $0.59 | $19.17 | $17.40 |
| 2017 | $45.71 | $74.71 | $10.48 | $29.57 | $39.28 |
| 2018 | $25.62 | $48.82 | $231.97 | $36.07 | $29.92 |
| 2019 | $10.52 | $13.70 | $4.47 | $0.00 | $80.85 |
| 2020 | $30.10 | $25.70 | $3.87 | $12.45 | $2.01 |
| 2021 | $75.66 | $71.09 | $23.33 | $34.34 | $91.11 |
| 2022 | $43.31 | $30.70 | $8.23 | $17.88 | $0.00 |
| 2023 | $29.13 | $11.65 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $26.94 |
| 2024 | $32.43 | $12.97 | $5.15 | $18.67 | $6.03 |
| 2025 | $64.08 | $38.10 | $7.01 | $39.47 | $55.13 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Alcoa Corporation's (AA) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $38.10
- Current price
- $62.63
- AI upside
- -39.17%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$29.01
-53.68% upside
Graham-Dodd
$39.47
-36.98% upside
Graham Formula
$55.13
-11.98% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| AA | Alcoa Corporation | $62.63 | 16.08B | -39% | -54% | -37% | -12% | 14.77 | 2.73 | 1.31 | 8.11 | 0.99 | 2.73 | 13.58% | 7.62% | 9.01% | 20.05% | 17.07% | 7.48% | 0.00 | 6.15 | 1.45 | 0.76 | -0.86 | 148571.00% | 453.00% | 125000.00% | 3.39% | 0.31 | 9.97% | 0.63% | 9.30% | 20.22% | 15.58 | 26.67 | 1.19 | 2.09 |
| CDE | Coeur Mining, Inc. | $27.15 | 17.43B | +87% | +295% | -67% | +241% | 29.21 | 5.17 | 8.27 | 16.55 | 5.84 | 6.37 | 39.30% | 36.27% | 28.30% | 26.41% | 26.88% | 16.75% | 0.11 | 24.26 | 2.00 | 1.58 | -0.18 | 50000.00% | 9641.00% | -753486.00% | 3.89% | 2.26 | 27.77% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.35% | 22.55 | 25.43 | 8.18 | 7.76 |
| EMN | Eastman Chemical Company | $75.51 | 8.61B | +2% | -60% | — | -91% | 18.22 | 1.45 | 0.99 | 10.20 | — | 6.51 | 21.07% | 10.64% | 5.42% | 8.07% | 7.53% | 3.15% | 0.85 | 4.48 | 1.37 | 0.59 | 3.50 | -4654.00% | -671.00% | -3837.00% | 4.91% | 0.37 | 4.10% | 4.41% | 80.40% | 5.57% | 14.12 | 31.00 | 1.50 | 2.42 |
| HL | Hecla Mining Company | $24.91 | 16.7B | +56% | -40% | -75% | +17% | 49.91 | 6.20 | 11.28 | 22.73 | 6.52 | 6.20 | 41.12% | 37.46% | 22.61% | 13.89% | 13.89% | 9.52% | 0.12 | 12.82 | 2.72 | 2.11 | 0.08 | 76572.00% | 5303.00% | 809680.00% | 1.93% | 2.43 | 12.04% | 0.06% | 3.20% | 2.98% | 30.12 | 51.75 | 11.28 | 9.01 |
| HMY | Harmony Gold Mining Compa… | $22.75 | 14.21B | -48% | +191% | -64% | +60% | 10.69 | 3.19 | 2.08 | 5.44 | 15.78 | 3.19 | 39.65% | 27.55% | 19.47% | 32.32% | 36.90% | 20.85% | 0.05 | — | 1.72 | 1.38 | -0.41 | 6774.00% | 2039.00% | 4881.00% | 7.02% | 1.83 | 28.51% | 1.34% | 14.30% | 6.85% | 7.02 | 13.24 | 1.93 | 5.40 |
| IAG | IAMGOLD Corporation | $24.57 | 14.58B | +78% | -61% | -46% | +295% | 20.63 | 3.33 | 4.80 | 9.19 | — | 3.33 | 41.22% | 38.91% | 23.29% | 17.98% | 19.51% | 11.55% | 0.20 | 10.38 | 1.75 | 0.94 | 0.27 | -2267.00% | 7776.00% | -65460.00% | 5.53% | 2.07 | 17.65% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 3.14% | 12.72 | 18.62 | 4.95 | 5.30 |
| ICL | ICL Group Ltd | $4.80 | 6.2B | +345% | -57% | -55% | -54% | 28.78 | 1.09 | 0.91 | 6.65 | — | 1.29 | 30.56% | 9.83% | 3.16% | 3.86% | 5.64% | 1.90% | 0.46 | 2.36 | 1.33 | 0.59 | 1.87 | -4375.00% | 456.00% | -8000.00% | 2.00% | 0.30 | 1.64% | 3.44% | 99.10% | 3.44% | 12.47 | 67.42 | 1.23 | 1.50 |
| MOS | The Mosaic Company | $27.84 | 8.84B | -31% | -57% | +8% | -1% | 15.17 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 3.53 | 7.26 | 0.79 | 15.08% | 8.71% | 4.49% | 4.88% | 3.52% | 2.43% | 0.06 | 4.82 | 1.32 | 0.34 | 0.18 | 20909.00% | 836.00% | -122785.00% | -6.12% | 0.21 | -3.79% | 3.21% | 48.70% | 45.53% | 8.78 | -17.23 | 0.76 | 1.93 |
| MP | MP Materials Corp. | $58.87 | 10.43B | +137% | -48% | -85% | — | -126.26 | 5.48 | 39.36 | 3052.89 | — | 5.48 | -2.40% | -44.57% | -31.18% | -5.66% | -13.42% | -2.77% | 0.03 | -3.90 | 7.24 | 6.61 | -369.40 | -1228.00% | 3512.00% | 8959.00% | -3.03% | -0.52 | -49.18% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 15.96% | -73.95 | -27.67 | 32.96 | 5.05 |
| SUZ | Suzano S.A. | $11.33 | 14B | +35% | -46% | -8% | +103% | 5.63 | 1.69 | 1.51 | 6.96 | — | 2.40 | 31.11% | 22.81% | 26.75% | 34.56% | 6.06% | 7.88% | 2.43 | 1.71 | 3.19 | 2.47 | 4.09 | -29016.00% | 365.00% | 3650.00% | 7.51% | 1.29 | 4.56% | 2.93% | 16.50% | 14.45% | 13.84 | 27.91 | 3.16 | 1.09 |
| WLK | Westlake Corporation | $105.38 | 13.52B | -52% | -59% | — | — | -9.36 | 1.57 | 1.23 | -56.96 | — | 1.57 | 2.59% | -14.13% | -13.50% | -15.23% | -14.72% | -7.23% | 0.06 | -9.80 | 12.51 | 8.92 | 11.19 | -35280.00% | -801.00% | -27320.00% | -3.85% | 0.94 | -5.51% | 1.98% | -18.50% | 35.72% | -7.18 | -21.39 | 1.01 | 1.42 |
About Alcoa Corporation
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Iceland, Norway, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. It engages in bauxite mining operations; and processes bauxite into alumina and sells it to customers who process it into industrial chemical products, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company offers primary aluminum in the form of alloy ingot or value-add ingot to customers that produce products for the transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it owns hydro power plants that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in October 2016. The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
- CEO
- William F. Oplinger
- Employees
- 13.9K
- Beta
- 1.86
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($29.01 ÷ $62.63) − 1 = -53.68% (DCF, example).