US · WCN
Waste Connections, Inc.
- Sector
- Industrials · Waste Management
- Headquarters
- Woodbridge, ON L4H 4G3
- Website
- wasteconnections.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$161.23
Market cap 44B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $109.01 | -32.39% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $69.73 | -56.75% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $0.63 | -99.61% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $61.01 | -62.16% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $19.46 | $28.41 | $77.71 | $3.24 | $14.08 |
| 2012 | $21.08 | $26.65 | $22.98 | $2.04 | $18.50 |
| 2013 | $27.10 | $29.57 | $7.36 | $3.12 | $24.73 |
| 2014 | $29.40 | $29.97 | $0.85 | $4.37 | $19.46 |
| 2015 | $40.23 | $29.67 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2016 | $54.51 | $42.32 | $100.97 | $4.78 | $69.52 |
| 2017 | $69.75 | $48.97 | $299.29 | $9.45 | $95.62 |
| 2018 | $80.72 | $53.14 | $447.69 | $7.09 | $29.56 |
| 2019 | $96.62 | $59.88 | $71.72 | $6.18 | $36.79 |
| 2020 | $99.60 | $57.43 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $7.07 |
| 2021 | $130.68 | $75.32 | $0.00 | $2.25 | $48.67 |
| 2022 | $128.50 | $79.32 | $14.81 | $2.87 | $79.81 |
| 2023 | $164.79 | $94.99 | $1.29 | $0.17 | $55.81 |
| 2024 | $187.34 | $103.62 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $45.11 |
| 2025 | $173.16 | $109.01 | $0.66 | $0.63 | $61.01 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Waste Connections, Inc.'s (WCN) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $109.01
- Current price
- $161.23
- AI upside
- -32.39%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$69.73
-56.75% upside
Graham-Dodd
$0.63
-99.61% upside
Graham Formula
$61.01
-62.16% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| WCN | Waste Connections, Inc. | $161.23 | 44B | -32% | -57% | -100% | -62% | 40.44 | 5.38 | 4.66 | 17.83 | 53.99 | -20.61 | 38.96% | 18.13% | 11.37% | 13.62% | 7.75% | 5.34% | 1.14 | 5.19 | 0.62 | 0.53 | 3.11 | 7490.00% | 655.00% | 581.00% | 2.80% | 1.16 | 7.35% | 0.77% | 31.00% | 1.93% | 31.14 | 43.23 | 5.64 | 3.06 |
| AME | AMETEK, Inc. | $239.22 | 55.07B | -40% | -53% | -88% | -61% | 37.59 | 5.24 | 7.52 | 30.58 | 474.33 | -43.12 | 36.38% | 26.15% | 20.00% | 14.59% | 13.24% | 9.64% | 0.21 | 23.82 | 1.06 | 0.55 | 0.97 | 793.00% | 663.00% | -178.00% | 3.00% | 0.63 | 13.89% | 0.51% | 19.30% | 1.52% | 29.69 | 34.38 | 7.77 | 7.01 |
| CARR | Carrier Global Corporatio… | $64.40 | 53.83B | -27% | -57% | — | -86% | 35.88 | 3.88 | 2.46 | 23.23 | — | -6.68 | 25.91% | 9.89% | 6.87% | 10.71% | 7.47% | 4.00% | 0.92 | 6.23 | 1.20 | 0.59 | 3.99 | -7236.00% | -329.00% | 375682.00% | 3.17% | 0.29 | 7.11% | 1.44% | 51.70% | 6.84% | 30.09 | 38.12 | 2.97 | 2.67 |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | $46.04 | 52.86B | -8% | -53% | — | -61% | 42.25 | 13.48 | 6.48 | 32.21 | 469.45 | 13.48 | 45.01% | 20.19% | 15.35% | 33.29% | 31.65% | 25.81% | 0.11 | 267.05 | 4.85 | 2.13 | 0.10 | 900.00% | 867.00% | 1096.00% | 1.98% | 1.81 | 26.41% | 1.89% | 79.80% | 2.01% | 32.21 | 50.76 | 6.50 | 33.19 |
| FER | Ferrovial SE | $74.38 | 53.6B | -15% | -40% | -84% | -75% | 51.77 | 7.78 | 4.78 | 26.26 | — | 8.56 | 88.32% | 12.23% | 9.22% | 14.82% | 9.34% | 3.15% | 1.82 | 2.69 | 1.13 | 0.99 | 3.25 | -7230.00% | 525.00% | 6298.00% | 3.78% | 0.30 | 13.80% | 0.34% | 17.60% | 1.93% | 44.57 | 30.17 | 5.45 | 2.07 |
| FERG | Ferguson plc | $260.76 | 50.99B | -38% | -65% | -90% | -58% | 24.71 | 7.86 | 1.49 | 16.72 | 266.77 | 17.36 | 30.67% | 8.47% | 6.03% | 32.42% | 18.41% | 10.82% | 1.02 | 13.72 | 1.68 | 0.77 | 1.73 | 926.00% | 380.00% | 680.00% | 3.50% | 0.32 | 14.78% | 1.07% | 26.30% | 3.13% | 19.63 | 31.91 | 1.66 | 5.35 |
| GWW | W.W. Grainger, Inc. | $1,144.73 | 54.43B | -32% | -57% | -90% | -61% | 30.53 | 13.33 | 3.08 | 20.89 | — | 15.70 | 39.06% | 15.00% | 9.51% | 48.22% | 32.76% | 20.32% | 0.76 | 33.22 | 2.83 | 1.50 | 0.93 | -855.00% | 451.00% | -1522.00% | 2.41% | 1.04 | 21.78% | 0.85% | 25.80% | 2.74% | 21.47 | 43.40 | 3.22 | 10.34 |
| HEI | HEICO Corporation | $319.46 | 44.46B | -37% | -30% | -92% | -63% | 65.92 | 11.41 | 10.96 | 41.92 | 196.68 | -59.37 | 39.83% | 22.72% | 15.39% | 18.77% | 14.16% | 9.27% | 0.51 | 7.85 | 2.83 | 1.17 | 1.62 | 3351.00% | 1626.00% | 4027.00% | 1.75% | 1.12 | 14.35% | 0.07% | 4.30% | 0.34% | 50.17 | 59.35 | 11.40 | 8.89 |
| PAYX | Paychex, Inc. | $93.65 | 33.62B | +8% | +3% | — | -34% | 30.08 | 12.08 | 8.95 | 21.36 | — | -21.36 | 72.35% | 39.62% | 29.74% | 41.80% | 31.57% | 12.30% | 1.22 | 20.95 | 1.28 | 0.52 | 1.36 | -193.00% | 556.00% | 132.00% | 3.53% | 0.28 | 33.03% | 2.91% | 87.40% | 3.12% | 24.10 | 30.25 | 9.55 | 3.52 |
| ROK | Rockwell Automation, Inc. | $407.45 | 45.81B | -37% | -59% | — | -83% | 60.62 | 12.43 | 5.44 | 34.75 | — | -43.28 | 48.14% | 17.06% | 10.42% | 20.94% | 16.67% | 6.67% | 1.00 | 9.12 | 1.14 | 0.70 | 2.27 | -737.00% | 97.00% | 11249.00% | 2.99% | 0.45 | 19.48% | 1.30% | 78.90% | 3.20% | 34.14 | 35.78 | 5.82 | 5.52 |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | $229.00 | 70.89B | -27% | -55% | — | -66% | 33.59 | 6.00 | 4.33 | 13.74 | 605.58 | -13.30 | 30.34% | 20.02% | 12.89% | 18.30% | 15.00% | 6.41% | 0.05 | 5.79 | 0.64 | 0.57 | 0.10 | 555.00% | 349.00% | 1576.00% | 3.35% | 1.09 | 13.19% | 1.03% | 34.50% | 19.44% | 21.71 | 29.93 | 4.35 | 3.13 |
About Waste Connections, Inc.
Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal, and resource recovery services in the United States and Canada. It offers collection services to residential, commercial, municipal, industrial, and exploration and production (E&P) customers; landfill disposal services; and recycling services for various recyclable materials, including compost, cardboard, mixed paper, plastic containers, glass bottles, and ferrous and aluminum metals. The company also owns and operates transfer stations that receive compact and/or load waste to be transported to landfills or treatment facilities through truck, rail, or barge; and intermodal services for the rail haul movement of cargo and solid waste containers in the Pacific Northwest through a network of intermodal facilities. In addition, it provides E&P waste treatment, recovery, and disposal services for waste resulting from oil and natural gas exploration and production activity, such as drilling fluids, drill cuttings, completion fluids, and flowback water; production wastes and produced water during a well's operating life; contaminated soils that require treatment during site reclamation; and substances, which require clean-up after a spill, reserve pit clean-up, or pipeline rupture. Further, the company offers leasing services to its customers. As of December 31, 2021, it owned 334 solid waste collection operations; 142 transfer stations; 61 municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills; 12 E&P waste landfills; 14 non-MSW landfills; 71 recycling operations; 4 intermodal operations; 23 E&P liquid waste injection wells; and 19 E&P waste treatment and oil recovery facilities. The company also operates an additional 53 transfer stations, 10 MSW landfills, and 2 intermodal operations. Waste Connections, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is based in Woodbridge, Canada.
- CEO
- Ronald J. Mittelstaedt
- Employees
- 23.85K
- Beta
- 0.62
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($69.73 ÷ $161.23) − 1 = -56.75% (DCF, example).