US · AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
- Headquarters
- Luxembourg 2134
- Website
- ardaghmetalpackaging.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$3.94
Market cap 2.9B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $20.57 | +422.08% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $1.94 | -50.76% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | — | — |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $0.36 | -90.84% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | |||||
| 2012 | |||||
| 2013 | |||||
| 2014 | |||||
| 2015 | |||||
| 2016 | |||||
| 2017 | |||||
| 2018 | |||||
| 2019 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| 2020 | $0.00 | $2.06 | |||
| 2021 | $5.38 | $24.35 | $1.65 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2022 | $3.11 | $20.17 | $7.74 | $0.00 | $9.09 |
| 2023 | $2.83 | $17.77 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2024 | $2.65 | $19.10 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2025 | $4.85 | $20.57 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.36 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s (AMBP) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $20.57
- Current price
- $3.94
- AI upside
- +422.08%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$1.94
-50.76% upside
Graham-Dodd
—
— upside
Graham Formula
$0.36
-90.84% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| AMBP | Ardagh Metal Packaging S.… | $3.94 | 2.9B | +422% | -51% | — | -91% | 263.54 | -4.29 | 0.53 | 9.20 | — | -1.56 | 12.68% | 5.02% | 0.20% | -2.69% | 3.46% | 0.20% | -6.55 | 1.32 | 1.06 | 0.73 | 5.27 | -5929.00% | 1200.00% | 76.00% | 9.14% | 0.26 | 8.31% | 9.04% | 2381.80% | 9.04% | 24.62 | 25.65 | 1.24 | 1.43 |
| ADNT | Adient plc | $24.32 | 1.92B | -36% | -53% | — | — | -5.47 | 0.87 | 0.11 | 6.79 | — | -4.27 | 6.61% | 3.02% | -1.93% | -14.41% | 12.91% | -3.07% | 1.36 | 2.14 | 1.12 | 0.77 | 3.29 | -179500.00% | -104.00% | -2635.00% | 13.27% | 0.12 | 6.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 9.50% | 6.78 | 14.59 | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| EYE | National Vision Holdings,… | $26.97 | 2.14B | +17% | -82% | — | -93% | -33.53 | 1.17 | 0.52 | 18.95 | — | -7.31 | 58.10% | -0.57% | -1.56% | -3.46% | -0.66% | -1.36% | 1.00 | -0.64 | 0.53 | 0.26 | 8.28 | -5714.00% | -1426.00% | -3453.00% | 3.99% | 0.29 | 2.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 3.59% | -163.89 | 44.51 | 0.93 | 1.40 |
| GEF | Greif, Inc. | $72.67 | 3.44B | -17% | -64% | +13% | +75% | 186.82 | 1.06 | 0.72 | 9.97 | 83.67 | 8.15 | 22.16% | 6.85% | 19.58% | 0.66% | 2.56% | 0.27% | 0.54 | 5.24 | 1.47 | 0.81 | 2.98 | 22328.00% | -100.00% | -15027.00% | -2.77% | 0.05 | -1.86% | 3.29% | 613.70% | 54.14% | 14.93 | -51.52 | 1.02 | 2.48 |
| GT | The Goodyear Tire & Rubbe… | $8.25 | 2.36B | +189% | -60% | — | — | -1.40 | 0.73 | 0.13 | 6.51 | — | 0.94 | 18.44% | 3.57% | -9.41% | -42.56% | 5.82% | -8.68% | 2.24 | 1.47 | 1.06 | 0.46 | 4.76 | -259583.00% | -317.00% | -9388.00% | -1.26% | 0.12 | -0.27% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 64.27% | 13.54 | -294.37 | 0.48 | 1.51 |
| OI | O-I Glass, Inc. | $13.40 | 2.06B | +56% | -44% | — | — | 412.44 | 1.59 | 0.32 | 8.07 | 1897.23 | -4.97 | 17.26% | 9.85% | -2.01% | 0.42% | 11.45% | 0.06% | 3.86 | 1.86 | 1.25 | 0.65 | 5.43 | 2174.00% | -161.00% | -23125.00% | 8.15% | 0.29 | 3.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 11.88% | 9.96 | 37.51 | 0.98 | 1.23 |
| PHIN | PHINIA Inc. | $72.63 | 2.79B | -32% | -60% | -62% | -53% | 22.42 | 1.84 | 0.84 | 8.18 | 26.66 | 4.29 | 20.87% | 8.04% | 3.73% | 8.23% | 8.39% | 3.43% | 0.64 | 3.46 | 1.86 | 1.23 | 1.51 | 8409.00% | 235.00% | -739.00% | 6.45% | 0.33 | 8.58% | 1.44% | 32.30% | 8.37% | 12.77 | 19.02 | 1.03 | 2.24 |
| SAH | Sonic Automotive, Inc. | $62.72 | 2.14B | -50% | -61% | -76% | -20% | 17.61 | 1.96 | 0.14 | 11.89 | — | 10.87 | 14.65% | 3.57% | 0.78% | 11.14% | 7.13% | 2.00% | 3.96 | 2.78 | 1.09 | 0.18 | 7.95 | -4466.00% | 653.00% | -56596.00% | 19.98% | 0.22 | 8.00% | 2.33% | 41.10% | 6.28% | 11.66 | 15.12 | 0.42 | 3.49 |
| SBET | SharpLink Gaming Ltd. | $6.82 | 1.02B | +2,633,040% | +17,050% | +2,587% | — | -0.32 | 0.68 | 0.39 | 0.01 | — | 0.68 | 24.75% | -130.05% | 275.77% | 122.28% | -606.29% | -12.12% | 0.00 | -14.68 | 5.23 | 3.48 | 0.30 | -6756.00% | -2605.00% | -778893.00% | -1616.18% | -46.72 | -2904.49% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 833.12% | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -44.36 |
| TRS | TriMas Corporation | $39.08 | 1.59B | +43,486% | +34,359,102% | +57,361% | +507,629,204% | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 21.40% | 6.40% | 18.61% | 34.02% | 11.59% | 16.17% | 0.05 | 2.29 | 2.52 | 0.77 | 0.06 | 40000.00% | 6970681.00% | 53890156.00% | 4509.95% | 0.64 | 19.39% | 431.41% | 5.50% | 438.16% | 0.18 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.75 |
| UAA | Under Armour, Inc. | $7.42 | 3.17B | +328% | -64% | -88% | -95% | -14.47 | 1.54 | 0.56 | 433.73 | — | 2.08 | 47.92% | -3.59% | -3.90% | -9.95% | -6.73% | -4.44% | 0.69 | — | 2.10 | 1.06 | 93.27 | -19038.00% | -943.00% | -21197.00% | -7.83% | -0.05 | -8.40% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 3.09% | -20.04 | -16.28 | 0.72 | 2.37 |
About Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. supplies metal beverage cans in Europe, the United States, and Brazil. Its products are used in various end-use categories, including beer, carbonated soft drinks, energy drinks, hard seltzers, juices, pre-mixed cocktails, teas, sparkling waters, and wine. The company serves beverage producers. The company is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A.
- CEO
- Oliver Graham
- Employees
- 6.3K
- Beta
- 0.56
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($1.94 ÷ $3.94) − 1 = -50.76% (DCF, example).