US · GEO
The GEO Group, Inc.
- Sector
- Industrials · Security & Protection Services
- Headquarters
- Boca Raton, FL 33431
- Website
- geogroup.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$18.75
Market cap 2.09B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $26.22 | +39.84% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $6.12 | -67.36% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $19.86 | +5.93% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $29.77 | +58.77% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $4.71 | $13.12 | $43.53 | $9.49 | $28.06 |
| 2012 | $12.07 | $14.02 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.42 |
| 2013 | $11.59 | $18.47 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $11.87 |
| 2014 | $16.14 | $21.18 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $25.02 |
| 2015 | $12.82 | $22.45 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $21.11 |
| 2016 | $19.64 | $29.15 | $1.42 | $0.00 | $34.20 |
| 2017 | $16.04 | $181.63 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $14.33 |
| 2018 | $15.99 | $24.24 | $0.95 | $0.00 | $13.27 |
| 2019 | $14.68 | $24.55 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $19.67 |
| 2020 | $8.08 | $19.23 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $2.98 |
| 2021 | $5.53 | $21.86 | $1.10 | $1.25 | $2.77 |
| 2022 | $8.39 | $19.80 | $0.74 | $10.49 | $18.87 |
| 2023 | $11.93 | $20.30 | $0.00 | $8.80 | $8.51 |
| 2024 | $24.01 | $31.33 | $0.00 | $5.63 | $2.07 |
| 2025 | $15.29 | $26.22 | $0.00 | $19.86 | $29.77 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates The GEO Group, Inc.'s (GEO) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $26.22
- Current price
- $18.75
- AI upside
- +39.84%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$6.12
-67.36% upside
Graham-Dodd
$19.86
+5.93% upside
Graham Formula
$29.77
+58.77% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| GEO | The GEO Group, Inc. | $18.75 | 2.09B | +40% | -67% | +6% | +59% | 8.40 | 1.42 | 0.81 | 6.01 | 1.16 | 3.39 | 25.20% | 9.78% | 9.67% | 17.92% | 6.18% | 6.81% | 1.15 | 1.60 | 2.01 | 1.86 | 2.62 | 72727.00% | 858.00% | -17637.00% | -5.84% | 0.20 | -4.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 3.67% | 14.73 | -30.37 | 1.44 | 1.57 |
| ALLE | Allegion plc | $161.15 | 13.88B | -10% | -49% | -95% | -27% | 21.68 | 6.75 | 3.43 | 16.05 | 238.50 | -20.81 | 45.20% | 21.13% | 15.83% | 36.08% | 20.18% | 13.26% | 1.10 | 8.51 | 1.84 | 1.09 | 1.94 | 909.00% | 782.00% | 1764.00% | 4.91% | 1.04 | 19.21% | 1.26% | 27.20% | 1.83% | 18.48 | 23.16 | 3.90 | 4.72 |
| BCO | The Brink's Company | $116.77 | 4.85B | -34% | -57% | — | -45% | 25.09 | 12.95 | 1.00 | 12.27 | 66.96 | -3.53 | 25.81% | 11.13% | 4.00% | 70.99% | 11.45% | 3.01% | 10.71 | 2.38 | 1.51 | 1.13 | 4.09 | 3747.00% | 497.00% | 11445.00% | 8.28% | 0.29 | 14.34% | 0.80% | 20.10% | 8.99% | 13.51 | 18.12 | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| BRC | Brady Corporation | $92.34 | 4.36B | -5% | -67% | -82% | -12% | 18.14 | 2.88 | 2.27 | 12.10 | — | 8.37 | 50.27% | 15.63% | 12.50% | 16.76% | 17.80% | 11.65% | 0.13 | 49.85 | 1.88 | 1.23 | -0.06 | -321.00% | 1284.00% | -1231.00% | 4.48% | 0.55 | 14.47% | 1.33% | 24.10% | 2.81% | 14.44 | 22.24 | 2.26 | 6.39 |
| EVLVW | Evolv Technologies Holdin… | $0.08 | 12.98M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 57.08% | -79.24% | -52.01% | -40.93% | -136.90% | -19.06% | 0.22 | — | 1.26 | 0.84 | 0.31 | -5211.00% | 2916.00% | -1734.00% | — | -0.32 | -113.38% | — | 0.00% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GFAI | Guardforce AI Co., Limite… | $0.58 | 12.73M | +8,252% | +109% | -64% | — | -2.14 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 2.18 | — | 0.43 | 17.22% | -18.49% | -16.13% | -20.41% | -54.04% | -12.92% | 0.08 | — | 4.92 | 4.56 | 6.17 | -8830.00% | 18.00% | 949.00% | -29.06% | -0.53 | -29.83% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 45.88% | 1.02 | 1.88 | -0.19 | -0.44 |
| MG | Mistras Group, Inc. | $15.28 | 482.06M | +121% | -73% | -76% | -54% | 16.89 | 1.61 | 0.44 | 6.78 | — | -14.19 | 29.21% | 5.46% | 2.60% | 9.76% | 8.08% | 3.59% | 1.01 | 2.33 | 1.50 | 1.27 | 2.46 | -20345.00% | 343.00% | 77586.00% | 8.47% | 0.44 | 7.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.61% | 12.64 | 18.55 | 0.69 | 2.34 |
| MSA | MSA Safety Incorporated | $195.41 | 7.65B | -19% | -57% | -90% | -58% | 27.86 | 5.69 | 4.15 | 17.39 | — | 23.11 | 46.46% | 21.44% | 14.88% | 22.22% | 18.21% | 11.72% | 0.46 | 12.64 | 3.01 | 1.63 | 0.98 | -166.00% | 369.00% | 2197.00% | 3.80% | 1.26 | 17.58% | 1.06% | 29.50% | 2.22% | 20.48 | 27.87 | 4.39 | 6.30 |
| NL | NL Industries, Inc. | $6.18 | 301.97M | +2,038% | -17% | -48% | — | 4.71 | 0.82 | 2.24 | 1.52 | — | 0.88 | 28.34% | 25.95% | 46.07% | 18.07% | 14.32% | 11.99% | 0.00 | 71.46 | 2.61 | 2.05 | -1.51 | -301755.00% | -951.00% | -3270.00% | 7.40% | 0.28 | 10.98% | 11.22% | 52.90% | 27.04% | 4.32 | 6.78 | 1.12 | 2.74 |
| NSSC | Napco Security Technologi… | $46.61 | 1.66B | -8% | -51% | -89% | -88% | 32.83 | 8.45 | 7.85 | 27.43 | — | 8.62 | 55.63% | 25.47% | 23.90% | 25.74% | 53.64% | 21.91% | 0.03 | — | 6.75 | 5.37 | -1.60 | -1119.00% | -381.00% | 1745.00% | 3.61% | 2.23 | 68.76% | 0.96% | 31.40% | 3.54% | 28.78 | 25.89 | 7.33 | 32.88 |
| REZI | Resideo Technologies, Inc… | $38.70 | 5.79B | -12% | -60% | — | — | -10.83 | 1.96 | 0.76 | -64.66 | — | -4.48 | 29.39% | 8.12% | -7.05% | -16.93% | 12.05% | -6.34% | 1.09 | 4.50 | 1.91 | 0.99 | -19.73 | -71803.00% | 1052.00% | -44423.00% | -21.96% | -0.65 | -24.88% | 0.61% | -6.60% | 1.12% | 13.53 | -6.55 | 1.10 | 2.03 |
About The GEO Group, Inc.
The GEO Group, Inc. engages in the ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, reentry facilities, and processing centers in the United States, Australia, and South Africa. It operates through four segments: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry Services, and International Services. The company provides counseling, education, and treatment for alcohol and drug abuse problems at various facilities; and compliance technologies for monitoring services, and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. It also offers secure facility management services, including security, administrative, rehabilitation, education, and food services at secure services facilities; reentry services comprising supervision of individuals in community-based programs and reentry centers, and provision of temporary housing, programming, employment assistance, and other services; and supervision and reporting services that improves the participation of non-detained aliens in the immigration court system. In addition, the company provides secure transportation services; and rehabilitation services, such as evidence-based, including cognitive behavioral treatment and post-release services, as well as academic and vocational classes in life skills and treatment programs under the GEO Continuum of Care platform; and develops new facilities based on contract, as well as designs, constructs, and finances the facilities. The GEO Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.
- CEO
- George C. Zoley
- Employees
- 16.5K
- Beta
- 0.76
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($6.12 ÷ $18.75) − 1 = -67.36% (DCF, example).