US · MTH
Meritage Homes Corporation
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
- Headquarters
- Scottsdale, AZ 85260
- Website
- meritagehomes.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$66.34
Market cap 5.31B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $105.55 | +59.1% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $30.02 | -54.75% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $79.24 | +19.45% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $0.61 | -99.08% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $13.02 | $80.33 | $2.57 | $5.92 | $0.03 |
| 2012 | $20.93 | $42.63 | $0.00 | $17.91 | $69.56 |
| 2013 | $22.19 | $71.22 | $418.75 | $19.73 | $100.41 |
| 2014 | $20.65 | $46.39 | $634.71 | $22.91 | $49.34 |
| 2015 | $16.77 | $67.62 | $481.97 | $23.61 | $41.83 |
| 2016 | $17.62 | $57.13 | $358.87 | $26.72 | $47.41 |
| 2017 | $21.56 | $52.76 | $218.48 | $28.05 | $25.68 |
| 2018 | $20.57 | $127.08 | $96.55 | $35.21 | $46.90 |
| 2019 | $31.94 | $54.84 | $0.00 | $42.29 | $39.17 |
| 2020 | $42.44 | $110.19 | $4.95 | $59.19 | $168.07 |
| 2021 | $45.06 | $160.66 | $9.63 | $89.05 | $212.87 |
| 2022 | $50.63 | $223.37 | $161.50 | $120.97 | $399.60 |
| 2023 | $76.64 | $141.56 | $0.25 | $104.86 | $58.85 |
| 2024 | $75.72 | $138.88 | $1.13 | $102.25 | $131.77 |
| 2025 | $72.69 | $105.55 | $0.63 | $79.24 | $0.61 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Meritage Homes Corporation's (MTH) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $105.55
- Current price
- $66.34
- AI upside
- +59.1%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$30.02
-54.75% upside
Graham-Dodd
$79.24
+19.45% upside
Graham Formula
$0.61
-99.08% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| MTH | Meritage Homes Corporatio… | $66.34 | 5.31B | +59% | -55% | +19% | -99% | 11.36 | 0.99 | 0.88 | 11.13 | — | 1.00 | 19.69% | 9.18% | 7.73% | 8.76% | 6.83% | 6.12% | 0.36 | — | 12.12 | 1.81 | 1.98 | -4030.00% | -840.00% | -13613.00% | 1.80% | 0.20 | 1.52% | 2.35% | 26.70% | 8.08% | 11.65 | 67.65 | 1.07 | 4.25 |
| ABG | Asbury Automotive Group, … | $213.78 | 4.16B | +3% | -56% | -2% | +51% | 6.17 | 1.05 | 0.23 | 10.14 | 36.57 | -8.40 | 16.61% | 5.57% | 2.73% | 17.91% | 7.89% | 5.99% | 1.63 | 3.59 | 0.95 | 0.18 | 6.14 | 1688.00% | 471.00% | 5884.00% | 14.10% | 0.22 | 6.11% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.76% | 10.36 | 17.99 | 0.58 | 2.53 |
| CVCO | Cavco Industries, Inc. | $577.26 | 4.51B | -47% | +41% | -62% | -28% | 20.44 | 3.28 | 1.73 | 13.71 | 160.50 | 3.78 | 23.10% | 9.44% | 8.49% | 16.30% | 21.55% | 12.39% | 0.04 | 368.04 | 3.00 | 1.86 | -1.35 | 1274.00% | 1229.00% | -2422.00% | 4.49% | 0.59 | 21.95% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.25% | 16.64 | 20.16 | 1.57 | 9.72 |
| EAT | Brinker International, In… | $148.20 | 6.45B | -29% | -57% | -68% | +69% | 18.42 | 19.03 | 1.31 | 12.13 | 12.73 | 44.44 | 18.25% | 9.51% | 7.12% | 186.74% | 21.22% | 14.53% | 4.57 | 9.64 | 0.31 | 0.14 | 2.33 | 14471.00% | 2195.00% | 8552.00% | 5.86% | 1.01 | 20.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.96% | 17.05 | 21.11 | 1.62 | 4.36 |
| GPK | Graphic Packaging Holding… | $12.23 | 3.61B | +1% | -61% | -57% | -26% | 7.86 | 1.05 | 0.41 | 6.56 | — | 5.81 | 18.71% | 10.08% | 5.15% | 13.99% | 7.81% | 3.87% | 1.67 | 3.91 | 1.30 | 0.46 | 3.96 | -3148.00% | -216.00% | -7769.00% | -2.32% | 0.38 | -0.96% | 3.67% | 28.80% | 8.94% | 10.13 | -108.65 | 1.02 | 1.48 |
| GRBK | Green Brick Partners, Inc… | $73.66 | 3.21B | +25% | -55% | +5% | -21% | 10.12 | 1.71 | 1.51 | 7.56 | — | 1.71 | 30.54% | 19.51% | 14.93% | 17.98% | 16.59% | 13.09% | 0.18 | — | 22.60 | 2.06 | 0.41 | -1633.00% | -2.00% | 86740.00% | 6.57% | 2.26 | 10.78% | 0.09% | 0.90% | 3.45% | 8.19 | 16.08 | 1.60 | 6.35 |
| KBH | KB Home | $63.58 | 4.02B | +14% | -62% | +16% | — | 9.61 | 1.06 | 0.66 | 9.45 | — | 1.06 | 18.88% | 8.42% | 6.88% | 10.77% | 7.68% | 6.28% | 0.44 | — | 4.57 | 0.43 | 2.52 | -2722.00% | -1001.00% | -1025.00% | 7.04% | 0.25 | 5.49% | 1.66% | 16.00% | 14.80% | 10.71 | 19.37 | 0.90 | 3.69 |
| MHO | M/I Homes, Inc. | $142.16 | 3.72B | +38% | -59% | +36% | -34% | 9.38 | 1.19 | 0.86 | 7.37 | — | 1.20 | 23.03% | 11.47% | 9.12% | 13.20% | 11.54% | 8.64% | 0.34 | 25.28 | 24.19 | 3.80 | 0.70 | -2522.00% | -193.00% | -2953.00% | 3.19% | 0.72 | 3.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.35% | 8.25 | 34.59 | 0.95 | 4.70 |
| SKY | Champion Homes, Inc. | $93.48 | 5.22B | -10% | -65% | -60% | +10% | 18.38 | 2.40 | 1.49 | 10.39 | 52.24 | 3.30 | 26.16% | 9.54% | 7.99% | 13.59% | 17.76% | 10.00% | 0.08 | 27.99 | 2.41 | 1.54 | -1.54 | 3518.00% | 2265.00% | 1210.00% | 5.14% | 0.53 | 18.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.87% | 13.61 | 16.95 | 1.30 | 6.48 |
| TMHC | Taylor Morrison Home Corp… | $65.89 | 6.35B | +50% | -58% | +46% | -9% | 8.18 | 1.01 | 0.79 | 6.92 | — | 1.13 | 23.03% | 13.98% | 9.63% | 12.85% | 11.20% | 8.18% | 0.37 | 24.15 | 6.24 | 0.96 | 1.32 | -605.00% | -57.00% | 36468.00% | 12.62% | 0.74 | 10.49% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 9.09% | 6.97 | 9.80 | 0.97 | 3.03 |
| TPH | Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. | $46.30 | 3.98B | +125% | -60% | +14% | — | 16.44 | 1.19 | 1.14 | 11.46 | — | 1.25 | 21.96% | 9.74% | 6.94% | 7.25% | 6.98% | 4.86% | 0.36 | — | 9.23 | 2.42 | 0.58 | -4369.00% | -2275.00% | -8089.00% | 3.25% | 0.35 | 3.68% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 12.34 | 32.46 | 1.20 | 4.21 |
About Meritage Homes Corporation
Meritage Homes Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs and builds single-family homes in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Homebuilding and Financial Services. It acquires and develops land; and constructs, markets, and sells homes for first-time and first move-up buyers. The company also offers title insurance and closing/settlement services to its homebuyers. It builds and sells homes in Texas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee under the Meritage Homes brand name. Meritage Homes Corporation was founded in 1985 and is based in Scottsdale, Arizona.
- CEO
- Phillippe Lord
- Employees
- 1.9K
- Beta
- 1.48
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($30.02 ÷ $66.34) − 1 = -54.75% (DCF, example).