US · TOL
Toll Brothers, Inc.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
- Headquarters
- Fort Washington, PA 19034
- Website
- tollbrothers.com
Price · as of 2025-10-31
$139.84
Market cap 14.94B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $155.25 | +11.02% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $58.04 | -58.5% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $136.87 | -2.13% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $126.22 | -9.74% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $19.67 | $115.11 | $1.00 | $16.66 | $1.66 |
| 2012 | $31.14 | $72.11 | $0.00 | $32.17 | $100.52 |
| 2013 | $33.24 | $49.60 | $13.97 | $24.73 | $48.68 |
| 2014 | $32.01 | $72.99 | $84.75 | $31.28 | $100.19 |
| 2015 | $26.96 | $66.13 | $29.51 | $34.23 | $29.73 |
| 2016 | $28.27 | $57.88 | $138.29 | $36.49 | $70.59 |
| 2017 | $46.63 | $68.08 | $137.54 | $40.87 | $65.99 |
| 2018 | $33.04 | $83.14 | $316.49 | $49.84 | $147.38 |
| 2019 | $38.49 | $78.83 | $18.55 | $48.74 | $37.75 |
| 2020 | $40.56 | $76.23 | $0.00 | $48.12 | $21.34 |
| 2021 | $62.57 | $129.31 | $0.00 | $66.99 | $210.11 |
| 2022 | $51.50 | $135.09 | $0.91 | $95.10 | $266.62 |
| 2023 | $98.03 | $146.82 | $3.24 | $111.72 | $68.00 |
| 2024 | $122.27 | $165.22 | $7.32 | $136.28 | $247.94 |
| 2025 | $145.11 | $155.25 | $3.34 | $136.87 | $126.22 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Toll Brothers, Inc.'s (TOL) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $155.25
- Current price
- $139.84
- AI upside
- +11.02%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$58.04
-58.5% upside
Graham-Dodd
$136.87
-2.13% upside
Graham Formula
$126.22
-9.74% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| TOL | Toll Brothers, Inc. | $139.84 | 14.94B | +11% | -58% | -2% | -10% | 10.67 | 1.74 | 1.31 | 8.58 | — | 1.74 | 25.96% | 15.69% | 12.28% | 16.89% | 13.43% | 9.66% | 0.35 | — | 4.17 | 0.46 | 0.89 | -1013.00% | 111.00% | 958.00% | 7.14% | 0.36 | 10.66% | 0.68% | 7.20% | 5.22% | 9.31 | 15.61 | 1.46 | 4.17 |
| BALL | Ball Corporation | $67.13 | 17.99B | -53% | -55% | -87% | -5% | 19.91 | 3.36 | 1.38 | 11.49 | — | 303.61 | 14.86% | 10.56% | 6.93% | 16.22% | 9.92% | 4.93% | 1.29 | 4.43 | 1.11 | 0.70 | 2.77 | -7462.00% | 1155.00% | -31355.00% | 4.33% | 0.23 | 7.10% | 1.21% | 24.00% | 8.46% | 17.28 | 30.48 | 1.82 | 1.72 |
| CCK | Crown Holdings, Inc. | $114.60 | 13.22B | -49% | -50% | -94% | -29% | 18.23 | 4.46 | 1.08 | 9.22 | 22.86 | -12.00 | 18.34% | 13.23% | 5.94% | 25.51% | 15.17% | 5.22% | 1.99 | 4.11 | 1.03 | 0.59 | 2.58 | 7972.00% | 478.00% | 3916.00% | 8.21% | 0.35 | 13.42% | 0.90% | 16.30% | 6.21% | 11.36 | 16.92 | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| DECK | Deckers Outdoor Corporati… | $117.27 | 17.09B | +50% | +42% | -59% | +28% | 17.18 | 6.61 | 3.33 | 11.40 | 56.81 | 6.68 | 57.88% | 23.65% | 19.38% | 41.82% | 103.34% | 28.55% | 0.11 | 335.26 | 3.72 | 2.96 | -1.23 | 3025.00% | 1628.00% | 154.00% | 5.77% | 1.36 | 108.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.69% | 12.71 | 15.64 | 3.01 | 12.91 |
| DPZ | Domino's Pizza, Inc. | $402.51 | 13.54B | +14% | -58% | — | -43% | 22.68 | -3.50 | 2.76 | 17.40 | 469.38 | -3.35 | 39.95% | 19.31% | 12.18% | -15.30% | 76.59% | 34.01% | -1.34 | 4.87 | 1.65 | 1.42 | 4.53 | 483.00% | 496.00% | 3115.00% | 4.92% | 1.46 | 69.02% | 1.74% | 39.40% | 5.92% | 19.34 | 27.47 | 3.73 | 3.13 |
| H | Hyatt Hotels Corporation | $161.50 | 15.42B | -53% | +181,156% | -86% | — | -311.47 | 4.58 | 2.13 | 26.73 | — | -6.50 | 11.20% | 7.85% | -0.73% | -1.42% | 3.31% | -0.36% | 1.44 | 1.79 | 58.02 | 58.02 | 5.57 | -10427.00% | 11696.00% | -6588.00% | 1.04% | 9.24 | 2.35% | 0.37% | -116.30% | 2.47% | 34.31 | 121.06 | 2.69 | 2.07 |
| HTHT | H World Group Limited | $54.80 | 16.86B | -25% | -52% | — | -58% | 25.47 | 6.49 | 3.31 | 16.01 | — | 39.39 | 41.27% | 21.77% | 12.76% | 25.52% | 8.98% | 4.92% | 2.91 | 16.35 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 4.33 | -2320.00% | 918.00% | -65.00% | 8.52% | 0.57 | 17.84% | 4.47% | 113.80% | 7.17% | 19.88 | 15.36 | 4.33 | 1.65 |
| MGA | Magna International Inc. | $63.05 | 17.77B | -23% | -60% | -67% | -62% | 21.10 | 1.43 | 0.42 | 6.39 | — | 1.88 | 10.31% | 5.02% | 1.97% | 7.03% | 7.94% | 2.70% | 0.67 | 10.10 | 1.25 | 0.84 | 1.75 | -1506.00% | -21.00% | 2481.00% | 10.21% | 0.33 | 9.95% | 3.11% | 65.60% | 3.92% | 11.42 | 13.49 | 0.57 | 2.71 |
| PAG | Penske Automotive Group, … | $157.52 | 10.37B | -15% | -60% | -2% | +11% | 11.09 | 1.86 | 0.33 | 13.15 | 390.83 | 5.24 | 16.40% | 4.03% | 2.94% | 17.34% | 6.88% | 5.45% | 1.56 | 13.98 | 0.99 | 0.18 | 5.98 | 284.00% | 444.00% | -1980.00% | 6.27% | 0.16 | 4.71% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 14.86 | 29.26 | 0.60 | 2.56 |
| SN | SharkNinja, Inc. | $122.87 | 17.34B | +26% | +137% | -69% | -6% | 24.24 | 6.35 | 2.66 | 16.25 | 41.19 | 12.23 | 49.01% | 14.39% | 10.96% | 30.41% | 26.44% | 14.40% | 0.38 | 18.95 | 2.04 | 1.38 | 0.23 | 5884.00% | 1575.00% | -10000.00% | 0.00% | 0.36 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.97% | 18.72 | — | 2.69 | 6.41 |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts, Limited | $108.19 | 11.25B | -2% | -26% | -99% | -29% | 15.11 | -43.13 | 1.36 | 9.75 | — | -19.44 | 43.51% | 15.89% | 7.03% | -269.05% | 11.91% | 4.74% | -54.27 | 1.65 | 1.90 | 1.79 | 4.89 | -3117.00% | 913.00% | 3550.00% | 10.38% | 0.93 | 10.62% | 1.44% | 21.80% | 13.37% | 17.13 | 19.34 | 2.72 | 1.20 |
About Toll Brothers, Inc.
Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Traditional Home Building and City Living. It also designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. In addition, the company develops, owns, and operates golf courses and country clubs; develops and sells land; and develops, operates, and rents apartments, as well as provides various interior fit-out options, such as flooring, wall tile, plumbing, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, lighting, and home-automation and security technologies. Further, it owns and operates architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, insurance, smart home technology, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and manufacturing operations. The company serves move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. It has a strategic partnership with Equity Residential to develop new rental apartment communities in the United States markets. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.
- CEO
- Douglas C. Yearley Jr.
- Employees
- 4.9K
- Beta
- 1.47
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($58.04 ÷ $139.84) − 1 = -58.5% (DCF, example).