US · ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
- Headquarters
- Bolingbrook, IL 60440
- Website
- ulta.com
Price · as of 2025-01-31
$531.95
Market cap 30.7B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $298.63 | -43.86% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $360.23 | -32.28% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $179.70 | -66.22% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $226.34 | -57.45% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $50.13 | $71.28 | $128.67 | $12.85 | $31.69 |
| 2012 | $95.04 | $99.30 | $270.67 | $19.36 | $57.27 |
| 2013 | $87.69 | $86.13 | $589.03 | $11.26 | $87.42 |
| 2014 | $91.05 | $116.23 | $675.65 | $31.52 | $87.02 |
| 2015 | $151.68 | $156.55 | $827.18 | $39.38 | $114.31 |
| 2016 | $200.51 | $185.37 | $915.79 | $47.58 | $141.20 |
| 2017 | $284.50 | $209.62 | $1,379.47 | $57.57 | $202.50 |
| 2018 | $220.88 | $183.12 | $1,668.58 | $73.92 | $256.25 |
| 2019 | $344.83 | $238.30 | $1,527.56 | $85.23 | $238.86 |
| 2020 | $202.48 | $173.82 | $602.65 | $93.72 | $218.31 |
| 2021 | $322.22 | $214.48 | $0.00 | $50.89 | $0.00 |
| 2022 | $401.55 | $306.15 | $339.50 | $118.45 | $842.90 |
| 2023 | $520.95 | $345.07 | $904.03 | $158.76 | $617.28 |
| 2024 | $442.32 | $323.43 | $1,971.65 | $176.93 | $458.34 |
| 2025 | $361.46 | $298.63 | $84.66 | $179.70 | $226.34 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s (ULTA) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $298.63
- Current price
- $531.95
- AI upside
- -43.86%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$360.23
-32.28% upside
Graham-Dodd
$179.70
-66.22% upside
Graham Formula
$226.34
-57.45% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty, Inc. | $531.95 | 30.7B | -44% | -32% | -66% | -57% | 14.21 | 6.86 | 1.51 | 9.90 | — | 6.89 | 38.84% | 13.98% | 10.63% | 50.39% | 33.65% | 20.52% | 0.77 | — | 1.70 | 0.52 | 0.66 | -265.00% | 79.00% | -738.00% | 5.65% | 0.75 | 27.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 6.02% | 11.58 | 18.96 | 1.62 | 6.26 |
| BBY | Best Buy Co., Inc. | $61.97 | 13.02B | +15% | -63% | — | -73% | 13.48 | 4.45 | 0.30 | 6.77 | — | 6.91 | 22.60% | 4.14% | 2.23% | 31.63% | 22.59% | 6.23% | 1.44 | 33.75 | 1.03 | 0.33 | 1.12 | -2465.00% | -443.00% | 10622.00% | 11.14% | 0.26 | 25.61% | 6.46% | 87.10% | 10.94% | 8.70 | 10.76 | 0.36 | 4.07 |
| CASY | Casey's General Stores, I… | $685.59 | 25.41B | -63% | +6% | -85% | -68% | 35.01 | 5.45 | 1.20 | 18.14 | 388.54 | 8.79 | 23.54% | 5.00% | 3.43% | 16.75% | 11.54% | 7.39% | 0.84 | 8.21 | 0.92 | 0.46 | 2.19 | 901.00% | 725.00% | 5760.00% | 3.06% | 0.99 | 11.05% | 0.38% | 13.20% | 0.38% | 27.33 | 37.23 | 1.37 | 5.09 |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, In… | $203.63 | 16.49B | -5% | +406% | -80% | -18% | 12.62 | 4.60 | 1.09 | 8.87 | 82.18 | 5.08 | 35.90% | 10.96% | 8.67% | 40.08% | 20.42% | 11.79% | 1.40 | 27.82 | 1.76 | 0.62 | 1.42 | 1535.00% | 353.00% | -4582.00% | 3.46% | 0.43 | 9.20% | 2.46% | 31.00% | 4.25% | 11.87 | 34.36 | 1.30 | 4.09 |
| DRI | Darden Restaurants, Inc. | $213.85 | 24.87B | -28% | -63% | — | -42% | 22.43 | 10.19 | 1.95 | 15.69 | 545.36 | -33.90 | 21.88% | 11.28% | 8.69% | 46.10% | 15.29% | 8.78% | 2.70 | 7.55 | 0.42 | 0.15 | 3.18 | 411.00% | 603.00% | 524.00% | 4.40% | 0.76 | 13.12% | 2.80% | 62.70% | 4.57% | 21.68 | 28.53 | 2.45 | 2.56 |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Company | $119.26 | 16.59B | -8% | -60% | — | -95% | 249.78 | 3.72 | 0.68 | 32.20 | — | -26.50 | 34.58% | 5.00% | 0.27% | 1.51% | 11.13% | 0.33% | 1.87 | 7.43 | 1.08 | 0.29 | 10.35 | -9274.00% | 346.00% | -3845.00% | 2.56% | 0.09 | 3.86% | 3.42% | 855.00% | 3.42% | 19.98 | 57.66 | 1.00 | 2.32 |
| PHM | PulteGroup, Inc. | $137.20 | 26.39B | +4% | -58% | -21% | -62% | 11.93 | 2.04 | 1.53 | 8.88 | — | 2.05 | 26.41% | 17.32% | 12.82% | 17.67% | 17.45% | 12.53% | 0.19 | 4956.49 | 5.91 | 0.88 | 0.13 | -2430.00% | -354.00% | 1192.00% | 6.61% | 0.73 | 13.35% | 0.67% | 8.00% | 6.39% | 8.96 | 15.37 | 1.55 | 6.22 |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands Interna… | $71.71 | 23.59B | +81% | -52% | — | -36% | 22.35 | 6.61 | 2.55 | 16.69 | — | -1.73 | 41.09% | 23.72% | 8.23% | 31.88% | 8.45% | 4.28% | 4.84 | 4.34 | 0.98 | 0.68 | 6.77 | -2610.00% | 1223.00% | 1129.00% | 6.03% | 0.59 | 7.67% | 4.61% | 103.10% | 4.61% | 18.07 | 27.91 | 4.29 | 1.46 |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply Company | $51.84 | 27.39B | -22% | -60% | -99% | -51% | 25.28 | 10.73 | 1.78 | 17.06 | 2578.29 | 12.69 | 33.24% | 9.45% | 7.06% | 45.18% | 14.59% | 10.57% | 2.30 | 21.22 | 1.34 | 0.08 | 2.93 | 98.00% | 431.00% | 1628.00% | 2.67% | 0.63 | 9.39% | 1.76% | 44.50% | 3.06% | 22.80 | 45.18 | 2.16 | 4.91 |
| WSM | Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | $205.65 | 24.55B | -28% | -69% | -87% | -67% | 16.38 | 8.60 | 2.39 | 11.18 | 78.96 | 8.92 | 46.45% | 18.55% | 14.59% | 52.70% | 47.79% | 21.28% | 0.63 | — | 1.44 | 0.70 | 0.08 | 2074.00% | -50.00% | -2367.00% | 6.18% | 0.71 | 50.24% | 1.52% | 24.90% | 5.90% | 12.98 | 16.30 | 2.41 | 6.46 |
About Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a retailer of beauty products in the United States. The company's stores offer cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools; professional hair products; salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services; and nail services. It also provides its private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection branded cosmetics, skincare, and bath products, as well as Ulta Beauty branded products; and the Ulta Beauty branded gifts. As of March 10, 2022, the company operated 1,308 retail stores across 50 states. It also distributes its products through its website ulta.com; and mobile applications. The company was formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.
- CEO
- Kecia L. Steelman
- Employees
- 20K
- Beta
- 0.83
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($360.23 ÷ $531.95) − 1 = -32.28% (DCF, example).