US · FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
- Headquarters
- Bradenton, FL 34201
- Website
- firstwatch.com
Price · as of 2025-12-28
$13.09
Market cap 760.46M
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $16.81 | +28.42% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $25.58 | +95.42% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $4.97 | -62% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $8.81 | -32.69% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | |||||
| 2012 | |||||
| 2013 | |||||
| 2014 | |||||
| 2015 | |||||
| 2016 | |||||
| 2017 | |||||
| 2018 | |||||
| 2019 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| 2020 | $0.00 | $10.80 | |||
| 2021 | $12.26 | $139.33 | $22.78 | $3.08 | $0.00 |
| 2022 | $15.28 | $28.27 | $47.96 | $3.60 | $3.34 |
| 2023 | $25.00 | $27.38 | $103.23 | $5.51 | $12.52 |
| 2024 | $19.00 | $26.79 | $7.41 | $4.83 | $6.75 |
| 2025 | $12.46 | $16.81 | $19.49 | $4.97 | $8.81 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s (FWRG) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $16.81
- Current price
- $13.09
- AI upside
- +28.42%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$25.58
+95.42% upside
Graham-Dodd
$4.97
-62% upside
Graham Formula
$8.81
-32.69% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| FWRG | First Watch Restaurant Gr… | $13.09 | 760.46M | +28% | +95% | -62% | -33% | 39.09 | 1.21 | 0.62 | 13.59 | 1172.71 | 24.38 | 13.04% | 2.76% | 1.59% | 3.18% | 2.49% | 1.19% | 1.18 | 2.02 | 0.29 | 0.17 | 6.60 | 333.00% | 2034.00% | 15248.00% | -4.08% | 0.75 | -2.28% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 7.62% | 43.76 | -47.69 | 1.21 | 1.07 |
| BH | Biglari Holdings Inc. | $387.78 | 1.21B | -2% | -67% | -8% | — | -81.12 | 0.53 | 0.84 | 8.50 | — | 0.61 | 38.28% | 6.38% | -1.04% | -0.64% | 1.82% | -0.44% | 0.26 | 3.77 | 1.16 | 1.08 | 3.16 | -10698.00% | -88.00% | -6156.00% | 6.25% | 0.34 | 3.26% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13.91 | 16.86 | 0.89 | 2.18 |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | $37.99 | 840.5M | +4% | -62% | -49% | -81% | 49.81 | 2.25 | 0.61 | 15.10 | — | 2.27 | 74.17% | 1.04% | 1.23% | 4.54% | 1.66% | 1.47% | 1.35 | 2.57 | 0.41 | 0.24 | 5.49 | -1463.00% | 181.00% | 25493.00% | 2.96% | 0.52 | 2.89% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 4.94% | 92.73 | 53.14 | 0.96 | 2.35 |
| CBRL | Cracker Barrel Old Countr… | $32.72 | 730.58M | -10% | -53% | -53% | -46% | 18.85 | 1.89 | 0.25 | 10.16 | 149.97 | 2.00 | 32.95% | 1.58% | 1.33% | 10.29% | 3.46% | 2.15% | 2.44 | 2.69 | 0.50 | 0.12 | 5.64 | 1257.00% | 37.00% | 4809.00% | 6.89% | 0.35 | 3.79% | 2.64% | 49.80% | 14.41% | 35.68 | 32.58 | 0.56 | 2.12 |
| CNNE | Cannae Holdings, Inc. | $12.20 | 639.02M | +75% | -60% | — | — | -0.22 | 0.67 | 1.62 | -2.17 | -0.24 | 0.72 | 12.68% | -28.23% | -121.15% | -215.22% | -7.47% | -173.43% | 0.32 | -11.50 | 2.07 | 1.87 | -0.39 | 9197.00% | -639.00% | -10000.00% | 0.00% | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 7.17% | -6.99 | — | 1.97 | 1.42 |
| FOXF | Fox Factory Holding Corp. | $16.84 | 703.93M | +1,371% | -58% | — | — | -1.34 | 1.09 | 0.50 | -1.62 | — | 1.25 | 30.21% | -35.64% | -37.11% | -58.22% | -39.70% | -27.91% | 0.04 | -9.74 | 2.86 | 0.96 | 0.07 | -825000.00% | 527.00% | -6930.00% | 3.69% | 0.23 | 2.16% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 93.45% | -1.34 | 25.94 | 0.48 | 0.91 |
| LGIH | LGI Homes, Inc. | $51.90 | 1.2B | +132% | -52% | +103% | — | 16.01 | 0.55 | 0.68 | 26.82 | — | 0.56 | 20.73% | 4.68% | 4.25% | 3.51% | 1.63% | 1.89% | 0.79 | — | 223.39 | 5.79 | 15.52 | -6241.00% | -2257.00% | -329.00% | -12.13% | -8.65 | -3.91% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 34.56 | -19.57 | 1.62 | 2.75 |
| SG | Sweetgreen, Inc. | $5.55 | 656.38M | +326% | -61% | — | — | -4.74 | 1.79 | 0.94 | -14.43 | -10.70 | 2.00 | 4.71% | -20.50% | -19.73% | -33.42% | -23.54% | -16.30% | 1.00 | -7332.53 | 1.09 | 0.80 | -4.25 | 4430.00% | 39.00% | 14420.00% | -18.75% | -0.11 | -20.14% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -6.47 | -7.56 | 1.33 | -0.61 |
| XPEL | XPEL, Inc. | $42.62 | 1.18B | +22% | +27% | -59% | -10% | 23.20 | 4.17 | 2.50 | 15.00 | 191.44 | 6.74 | 42.21% | 13.16% | 10.76% | 20.06% | 20.95% | 15.33% | 0.08 | 754.81 | 3.49 | 1.52 | -0.36 | 1212.00% | 1327.00% | 5307.00% | 5.29% | 1.01 | 26.13% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.52% | 18.53 | 18.44 | 2.44 | 10.99 |
About First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name. As of March 23, 2022, it operated 341 company-owned restaurants and 94 franchised restaurants in 28 states in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Bradenton, Florida.
- CEO
- Christopher A. Tomasso
- Employees
- 15K
- Beta
- 0.89
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($25.58 ÷ $13.09) − 1 = +95.42% (DCF, example).