US · HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Recreational Vehicles
- Headquarters
- Milwaukee, WI 53208
- Website
- harley-davidson.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$24.48
Market cap 2.19B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $43.20 | +76.47% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $17.95 | -26.67% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $29.61 | +20.94% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | — | — |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $34.36 | $40.20 | $7.12 | $15.98 | $44.05 |
| 2012 | $40.75 | $49.94 | $2.60 | $15.51 | $35.47 |
| 2013 | $51.36 | $48.87 | $7.29 | $17.23 | $45.13 |
| 2014 | $45.11 | $51.46 | $13.40 | $16.32 | $52.66 |
| 2015 | $38.56 | $52.19 | $5.12 | $8.92 | $16.68 |
| 2016 | $48.61 | $50.34 | $8.62 | $8.59 | $31.32 |
| 2017 | $36.98 | $45.50 | $7.36 | $3.60 | $7.83 |
| 2018 | $32.27 | $44.67 | $5.58 | $4.16 | $29.76 |
| 2019 | $23.40 | $39.63 | $5.18 | $1.91 | $5.93 |
| 2020 | $35.26 | $46.78 | $1.47 | $4.19 | $0.00 |
| 2021 | $35.61 | $305.39 | $14.60 | $28.32 | $162.17 |
| 2022 | $37.33 | $43.37 | $21.07 | $34.80 | $78.10 |
| 2023 | $36.86 | $41.23 | $32.53 | $37.07 | $46.99 |
| 2024 | $25.54 | $37.72 | $14.42 | $30.53 | $0.00 |
| 2025 | $17.77 | $43.20 | $19.29 | $29.61 | $0.00 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (HOG) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $43.20
- Current price
- $24.48
- AI upside
- +76.47%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$17.95
-26.67% upside
Graham-Dodd
$29.61
+20.94% upside
Graham Formula
—
— upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| HOG | Harley-Davidson, Inc. | $24.48 | 2.19B | +76% | -27% | +21% | — | 6.30 | 0.68 | 0.48 | 4.08 | — | 0.68 | 30.24% | 8.64% | 7.57% | 10.71% | 4.77% | 3.40% | 0.94 | 11.56 | 2.10 | 1.25 | -0.25 | -1919.00% | -1376.00% | -5212.00% | 19.46% | 0.21 | 7.14% | 4.05% | 25.50% | 281.26% | 5.20 | 4.84 | 0.45 | 1.41 |
| ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch Co. | $97.80 | 4.6B | — | +871% | -16% | +343% | 6.52 | 2.80 | 0.76 | 4.07 | — | 2.80 | 61.00% | 14.79% | 11.44% | — | — | — | 0.71 | 60.62 | 1.48 | 0.88 | 0.19 | — | — | — | 14.10% | 0.63 | — | 0.00% | 0.00% | 8.02% | 5.20 | 7.21 | 0.77 | 4.94 |
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoo… | $60.13 | 4.01B | — | — | — | -80% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 29.63% | 3.71% | 2.49% | 62849.74% | 8.59% | 3.17% | -332.37 | 1.77 | 1.72 | 0.22 | 7.32 | 39259.00% | 96.00% | 12175.00% | — | 0.35 | 9.84% | — | 0.00% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CARG | CarGurus, Inc. | $30.70 | 3.03B | +86% | -56% | -62% | -31% | 19.14 | 7.97 | 3.18 | 12.69 | 2.84 | 8.71 | 88.98% | 20.70% | 16.60% | 34.04% | 38.08% | 20.98% | 0.51 | — | 2.81 | 2.31 | 0.00 | 67500.00% | 499.00% | 6021.00% | 9.68% | 2.94 | 71.80% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 11.80% | 15.35 | 10.33 | 3.18 | 9.71 |
| GTX | Garrett Motion Inc. | $20.36 | 3.96B | +73% | -60% | — | -15% | 12.93 | -5.00 | 1.12 | 8.95 | 62.64 | -4.03 | 24.50% | 13.76% | 8.65% | -42.03% | 62.33% | 13.35% | -1.88 | 4.70 | 0.97 | 0.67 | 2.23 | 2063.00% | 314.00% | 757.00% | 8.51% | 0.30 | 54.52% | 1.30% | 16.80% | 8.31% | 10.82 | 15.65 | 1.49 | 2.12 |
| LCII | LCI Industries | $133.20 | 3.22B | -21% | -60% | — | +2% | 17.45 | 2.41 | 0.80 | 8.15 | 49.61 | 9.78 | 23.78% | 6.79% | 4.57% | 13.70% | 11.32% | 6.20% | 0.22 | 7.84 | 2.85 | 0.98 | 0.17 | 3518.00% | 1018.00% | -1513.00% | 8.47% | 0.70 | 15.25% | 3.47% | 60.60% | 30.48% | 11.99 | 12.06 | 0.81 | 3.01 |
| MHO | M/I Homes, Inc. | $142.16 | 3.72B | +38% | -59% | +36% | -34% | 9.38 | 1.19 | 0.86 | 7.37 | — | 1.20 | 23.03% | 11.47% | 9.12% | 13.20% | 11.54% | 8.64% | 0.34 | 25.28 | 24.19 | 3.80 | 0.70 | -2522.00% | -193.00% | -2953.00% | 3.19% | 0.72 | 3.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.35% | 8.25 | 34.59 | 0.95 | 4.70 |
| PII | Polaris Inc. | $60.74 | 3.44B | -61% | -61% | — | — | -7.22 | 4.05 | 0.47 | -41.74 | — | 118.21 | 18.52% | -0.40% | -6.51% | -43.88% | -0.91% | -8.92% | 1.86 | -0.21 | 0.98 | 0.17 | -12.29 | -51949.00% | -33.00% | 848615.00% | 16.62% | 0.33 | 20.55% | 4.48% | -32.30% | 19.79% | -168.15 | 8.53 | 0.67 | 1.80 |
| RRR | Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | $60.55 | 3.57B | -5% | -14% | — | -38% | 10.04 | 17.14 | 1.77 | 4.35 | 43.04 | -52.94 | 52.59% | 29.70% | 9.35% | 168.01% | 29.21% | 8.66% | 0.28 | 2.96 | 0.79 | 0.60 | -0.11 | 2332.00% | 374.00% | 1581.00% | 8.09% | 1.68 | 15.97% | 3.38% | 34.00% | 99.76% | 5.83 | 12.07 | 1.73 | 1.56 |
| RUSHA | Rush Enterprises, Inc. | $70.97 | 5.46B | -29% | -59% | -60% | -83% | 21.32 | 2.57 | 0.76 | 15.13 | — | 3.22 | 18.69% | 5.29% | 3.55% | 12.25% | 8.42% | 5.88% | 0.70 | 8.51 | 1.40 | 0.34 | 2.89 | -1210.00% | -475.00% | 14772.00% | 8.15% | 0.58 | 12.85% | 1.03% | 21.90% | 7.44% | 17.82 | 15.17 | 0.94 | 4.28 |
| VC | Visteon Corporation | $95.67 | 2.61B | -1% | -42% | -14% | -56% | 12.19 | 1.66 | 0.69 | 5.24 | — | 1.93 | 14.12% | 8.76% | 5.33% | 15.23% | 17.56% | 6.82% | 0.34 | 82.50 | 1.80 | 1.40 | -0.51 | -2587.00% | -253.00% | -448.00% | 10.67% | 0.41 | 23.39% | 0.58% | 7.00% | 4.08% | 7.17 | 8.54 | 0.63 | 3.79 |
About Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
- CEO
- Arthur Francis Starrs
- Employees
- 5.9K
- Beta
- 1.42
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($17.95 ÷ $24.48) − 1 = -26.67% (DCF, example).