US · ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
- Sector
- Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
- Headquarters
- Shanghai 201708
- Website
- zto.com
Price · as of 2024-12-31
$25.14
Market cap 19.45B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $2.70 | -89.26% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $25.42 | +1.11% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $3.00 | -88.07% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $34.00 | +35.24% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | |||||
| 2011 | |||||
| 2012 | |||||
| 2013 | |||||
| 2014 | |||||
| 2015 | $1.60 | $14.70 | |||
| 2016 | $9.81 | $16.76 | $509.30 | $5.70 | $30.10 |
| 2017 | $13.73 | $15.66 | $159.60 | $6.50 | $24.80 |
| 2018 | $17.85 | $17.29 | $168.35 | $7.20 | $33.90 |
| 2019 | $23.87 | $20.61 | $85.79 | $7.80 | $33.10 |
| 2020 | $29.99 | $20.05 | $35.17 | $7.30 | $16.30 |
| 2021 | $20.74 | $16.42 | $33.66 | $8.20 | $22.60 |
| 2022 | $23.78 | $16.66 | $39.41 | $11.10 | $28.10 |
| 2023 | $18.85 | $15.45 | $27.45 | $11.60 | $24.30 |
| 2024 | $19.73 | $19.35 | $36.77 | $3.00 | $34.00 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s (ZTO) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $2.70
- Current price
- $25.14
- AI upside
- -89.26%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$25.42
+1.11% upside
Graham-Dodd
$3.00
-88.07% upside
Graham Formula
$34.00
+35.24% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| ZTO | ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. | $25.14 | 19.45B | -23% | +1% | -88% | +35% | 13.04 | 1.87 | 2.62 | 7.38 | 1382.62 | 2.25 | 30.98% | 26.60% | 19.91% | 14.59% | 15.85% | 9.83% | 0.28 | 34.85 | 1.07 | 1.01 | 0.26 | 94.00% | 1526.00% | -1739.00% | 4.77% | 0.40 | 9.82% | 4.84% | 63.10% | 5.83% | 9.42 | 20.07 | 2.51 | 3.86 |
| ALLE | Allegion plc | $161.15 | 13.88B | -10% | -49% | -95% | -27% | 21.68 | 6.75 | 3.43 | 16.05 | 238.50 | -20.81 | 45.20% | 21.13% | 15.83% | 36.08% | 20.18% | 13.26% | 1.10 | 8.51 | 1.84 | 1.09 | 1.94 | 909.00% | 782.00% | 1764.00% | 4.91% | 1.04 | 19.21% | 1.26% | 27.20% | 1.83% | 18.48 | 23.16 | 3.90 | 4.72 |
| CHRW | C.H. Robinson Worldwide, … | $185.25 | 21.97B | -55% | -60% | — | -100% | 38.35 | 12.20 | 1.39 | 27.00 | 152.61 | 80.64 | 8.37% | 4.90% | 3.62% | 32.91% | 19.48% | 11.34% | 0.88 | 12.60 | 1.53 | 1.46 | 1.65 | 2513.00% | -842.00% | 8397.00% | 3.97% | 0.50 | 26.99% | 1.34% | 51.30% | 3.48% | 30.17 | 26.80 | 1.48 | 9.84 |
| CSL | Carlisle Companies Incorp… | $394.77 | 16.5B | -12% | -55% | -93% | -63% | 22.69 | 9.39 | 3.36 | 15.22 | — | -14.42 | 35.71% | 19.92% | 14.76% | 34.88% | 21.54% | 12.30% | 1.60 | 12.74 | 3.09 | 2.32 | 1.45 | -3864.00% | 33.00% | 262.00% | 5.76% | 1.50 | 26.72% | 1.07% | 24.40% | 8.79% | 18.62 | 19.19 | 3.71 | 5.53 |
| EXPD | Expeditors International … | $145.03 | 19.68B | -37% | -58% | -83% | -49% | 24.36 | 8.40 | 1.79 | 16.94 | 605.72 | 8.42 | 15.31% | 9.51% | 7.35% | 35.47% | 42.06% | 16.83% | 0.44 | — | 1.81 | 1.61 | -0.25 | 402.00% | 442.00% | 3961.00% | 4.82% | 0.49 | 51.32% | 1.05% | 25.50% | 4.42% | 18.52 | 20.45 | 1.76 | 8.80 |
| JBHT | J.B. Hunt Transport Servi… | $233.41 | 22.22B | -48% | -60% | -83% | -81% | 37.89 | 6.36 | 1.89 | 15.53 | 376.22 | 6.76 | 10.52% | 7.21% | 4.99% | 15.79% | 11.64% | 7.18% | 0.53 | 12.19 | 0.83 | 0.71 | 1.18 | 1007.00% | -73.00% | 5338.00% | 4.18% | 0.87 | 16.93% | 0.75% | 28.60% | 4.94% | 28.37 | 25.90 | 2.05 | 6.09 |
| LTM | LATAM Airlines Group S.A. | $56.16 | 16.18B | -2% | +99% | — | +66% | 10.48 | 11.37 | 1.07 | 6.48 | 18.63 | 70.96 | 29.16% | 16.37% | 10.23% | 141.14% | 32.17% | 8.88% | 6.01 | 3.24 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 1.81 | 5625.00% | 1116.00% | -1181.00% | 9.72% | 0.45 | 22.65% | 3.96% | 41.50% | 7.78% | 9.09 | 14.27 | 1.49 | 1.78 |
| TXT | Textron Inc. | $98.65 | 17.18B | — | -59% | -44% | -18% | 11.31 | 2.30 | 1.23 | 11.99 | — | 3.27 | 16.91% | 8.44% | 6.22% | — | — | — | 0.45 | 12.88 | 5.94 | 2.33 | 0.97 | — | — | — | 4.87% | 1.07 | — | 0.10% | 1.20% | 6.04% | 15.81 | 22.33 | 1.33 | 2.94 |
| WSO | Watsco, Inc. | $417.33 | 16.97B | -19% | -61% | — | -89% | 33.55 | 5.60 | 2.15 | 21.26 | — | 8.15 | 28.05% | 9.57% | 6.87% | 17.07% | 21.26% | 10.38% | 0.29 | — | 4.12 | 2.13 | 0.52 | -789.00% | -498.00% | -2793.00% | 3.44% | 0.79 | 20.64% | 3.04% | 102.10% | 3.04% | 22.61 | 29.24 | 2.16 | 10.60 |
| WWD | Woodward, Inc. | $386.76 | 23.2B | -54% | +15% | -87% | -71% | 40.85 | 7.04 | 5.06 | 27.12 | 208.05 | 13.83 | 26.81% | 14.33% | 12.39% | 18.64% | 15.07% | 9.83% | 0.28 | 11.19 | 2.08 | 1.28 | 0.58 | 1963.00% | 730.00% | -71.00% | 1.88% | 0.52 | 11.84% | 0.36% | 14.70% | 2.52% | 36.10 | 54.22 | 5.17 | 7.73 |
| XPO | XPO Logistics, Inc. | $210.47 | 24.71B | -52% | -59% | -92% | -88% | 80.35 | 13.64 | 3.11 | 23.83 | — | 8463.75 | 12.00% | 8.94% | 3.87% | 18.26% | 8.99% | 3.97% | 2.53 | 3.33 | 1.05 | 0.86 | 3.51 | -1827.00% | 105.00% | 209333.00% | 1.30% | 0.63 | 5.61% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.49% | 40.85 | 90.52 | 3.65 | 3.86 |
About ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers delivery services for e-commerce and traditional merchants, and other express service users. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of approximately 10,900 trucks. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
- CEO
- Meisong Lai
- Employees
- 24.48K
- Beta
- -0.17
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($25.42 ÷ $25.14) − 1 = +1.11% (DCF, example).