US · BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
- Headquarters
- Hangzhou 311121
- Website
- alibabagroup.com
Price · as of 2025-03-31
$131.50
Market cap 334.18B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $14.20 | -89.2% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $73.20 | -44.33% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $57.70 | -56.12% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $106.20 | -19.24% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | |||||
| 2012 | $2.50 | $65.70 | |||
| 2013 | $2.40 | $39.90 | |||
| 2014 | $8.00 | $77.00 | |||
| 2015 | $86.15 | $53.80 | $1,312.12 | $13.40 | $74.80 |
| 2016 | $72.10 | $55.78 | $320.99 | $28.10 | $161.00 |
| 2017 | $132.43 | $77.01 | $718.91 | $21.10 | $152.50 |
| 2018 | $194.75 | $101.22 | $1,782.69 | $28.80 | $224.60 |
| 2019 | $146.47 | $83.72 | $3,799.65 | $36.20 | $270.00 |
| 2020 | $208.51 | $114.62 | $2,506.56 | $65.40 | $333.40 |
| 2021 | $200.99 | $109.22 | $2,731.08 | $72.60 | $368.40 |
| 2022 | $104.31 | $59.30 | $1,019.23 | $51.60 | $85.20 |
| 2023 | $81.20 | $52.38 | $180.51 | $58.00 | $38.30 |
| 2024 | $75.47 | $60.99 | $49.62 | $47.60 | $71.90 |
| 2025 | $117.40 | $101.30 | $47.29 | $57.70 | $106.20 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Alibaba Group Holding Limited's (BABA) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $14.20
- Current price
- $131.50
- AI upside
- -89.2%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$73.20
-44.33% upside
Graham-Dodd
$57.70
-56.12% upside
Graham Formula
$106.20
-19.24% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Lim… | $131.50 | 334.18B | -23% | -44% | -56% | -19% | 15.07 | 1.94 | 1.97 | 9.58 | 21.25 | 2.68 | 39.95% | 14.14% | 13.06% | 13.06% | 15.87% | 7.31% | 0.25 | 14.68 | 1.54 | 1.24 | 0.37 | 7092.00% | 586.00% | -4818.00% | 3.97% | 0.38 | 11.28% | 1.49% | 22.50% | 5.93% | 12.42 | 22.40 | 1.76 | 3.11 |
| CART | Instacart (Maplebear Inc.… | $37.51 | 9.85B | +113% | -10% | -54% | -16% | 22.12 | 3.64 | 2.64 | 13.89 | 1747.83 | 4.40 | 73.57% | 15.39% | 11.95% | 15.40% | 26.30% | 11.46% | 0.03 | — | 2.40 | 2.17 | -1.13 | 127.00% | 1078.00% | 4623.00% | 9.21% | 1.06 | 51.73% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 14.01% | 15.80 | 9.99 | 2.43 | 6.34 |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | $90.86 | 41.07B | -11% | -21% | -94% | -22% | 20.06 | 8.68 | 3.61 | 15.61 | 197.59 | 270.54 | 71.45% | 20.51% | 18.30% | 40.85% | 24.82% | 10.80% | 1.60 | 9.26 | 1.10 | 0.91 | 1.93 | 1015.00% | 795.00% | -1508.00% | 4.15% | 0.47 | 20.92% | 1.33% | 26.60% | 7.57% | 19.54 | 26.79 | 4.01 | 2.94 |
| HD | The Home Depot, Inc. | $380.72 | 379.01B | -28% | -59% | — | -58% | 26.01 | 28.74 | 2.24 | 15.89 | — | -18.54 | 33.32% | 12.68% | 8.60% | 145.54% | 32.54% | 14.07% | 1.48 | 8.66 | 1.06 | 0.22 | 0.73 | -456.00% | 324.00% | -2254.00% | 3.43% | 0.50 | 25.89% | 2.49% | 64.70% | 14.17% | 18.47 | 30.51 | 2.34 | 4.64 |
| JD | JD.com, Inc. | $26.53 | 37.65B | +15% | +321% | +2% | +108% | 10.10 | 1.88 | 0.39 | 6.48 | 13.20 | 2.67 | 9.79% | 3.34% | 3.57% | 18.96% | 32.71% | 6.73% | 0.38 | 13.38 | 1.29 | 0.88 | -0.39 | 7651.00% | 684.00% | 1207.00% | 9.81% | 0.19 | 43.14% | 1.83% | 18.50% | 10.93% | 7.92 | 6.93 | 0.26 | 2.86 |
| MELI | MercadoLibre, Inc. | $1,757.58 | 89.1B | -38% | +2,567% | -81% | +2% | 45.11 | 13.35 | 3.12 | 26.73 | 1000.16 | 13.75 | 44.50% | 11.08% | 6.91% | 35.99% | 23.32% | 5.89% | 1.69 | 21.63 | 1.17 | 0.47 | 2.17 | 451.00% | 3906.00% | 5264.00% | 11.96% | 0.42 | 111.68% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 29.73 | 8.84 | 3.29 | 2.76 |
| MNSO | MINISO Group Holding Limi… | $18.02 | 5.61B | +65% | -26% | -88% | +4,259% | 16.43 | 4.20 | 2.55 | 12.31 | 2.53 | 5.01 | 44.94% | 19.51% | 15.40% | 27.05% | 49.62% | 16.17% | 0.30 | 256.83 | 2.04 | 1.50 | -1.00 | 65000.00% | 68876.00% | -1560.00% | 3.25% | 0.38 | 26.72% | 2.87% | 47.20% | 3.60% | 11.98 | 28.26 | 2.34 | 5.61 |
| PDD | PDD Holdings Inc. | $103.73 | 145.15B | -1% | +1,794% | -14% | +609% | 10.53 | 3.78 | 3.01 | 7.91 | 12.41 | 3.78 | 60.92% | 27.53% | 28.55% | 44.92% | -669.51% | 26.36% | 0.03 | — | 2.21 | 1.82 | -0.43 | 8482.00% | 5904.00% | 2926.00% | 10.22% | 0.65 | -881.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 7.96 | 7.13 | 2.19 | 6.25 |
| TM | Toyota Motor Corporation | $242.38 | 315.9B | -3% | +123% | -10% | +45% | 7.58 | 1.01 | 0.76 | 6.76 | — | 1.05 | 19.94% | 9.98% | 9.92% | 13.66% | 6.20% | 5.21% | 1.08 | 57.02 | 1.26 | 1.06 | 3.41 | -174.00% | 652.00% | 8539.00% | -4.30% | 0.13 | -2.70% | 3.12% | 23.60% | 6.37% | 12.34 | -37.91 | 1.23 | 1.70 |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty, Inc. | $684.79 | 30.7B | -56% | -47% | -74% | -67% | 14.21 | 6.86 | 1.51 | 9.90 | — | 6.89 | 38.84% | 13.98% | 10.63% | 50.39% | 33.65% | 20.52% | 0.77 | — | 1.70 | 0.52 | 0.66 | -265.00% | 79.00% | -738.00% | 5.65% | 0.75 | 27.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 6.02% | 11.58 | 18.96 | 1.62 | 6.26 |
| WSM | Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | $205.65 | 24.55B | -28% | -69% | -87% | -67% | 16.38 | 8.60 | 2.39 | 11.18 | 78.96 | 8.92 | 46.45% | 18.55% | 14.59% | 52.70% | 47.79% | 21.28% | 0.63 | — | 1.44 | 0.70 | 0.08 | 2074.00% | -50.00% | -2367.00% | 6.18% | 0.71 | 50.24% | 1.52% | 24.90% | 5.90% | 12.98 | 16.30 | 2.41 | 6.46 |
About Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through seven segments: China Commerce, International Commerce, Local Consumer Services, Cainiao, Cloud, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives and Others. It operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Alimama, a proprietary monetization platform; 1688.com and Alibaba.com, which are online wholesale marketplaces; AliExpress, a retail marketplace; Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz that are e-commerce platforms; Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and fresh goods; and Tmall Global, an import e-commerce platform. The company also operates Cainiao Network logistic services platform; Ele.me, an on-demand delivery and local services platform; Koubei, a restaurant and local services guide platform; and Fliggy, an online travel platform. In addition, it offers pay-for-performance, in-feed, and display marketing services; and Taobao Ad Network and Exchange, a real-time online bidding marketing exchange. Further, the company provides elastic computing, storage, network, security, database, big data, and IoT services; and hardware, software license, software installation, and application development and maintenance services. Additionally, it operates Youku, an online video platform; Quark, a platform for information search, storage, and consumption; Alibaba Pictures and other content platforms that provide online videos, films, live events, news feeds, literature, music, and others; Amap, a mobile digital map, navigation, and real-time traffic information app; DingTalk, a business efficiency mobile app; Tmall Genie smart speaker; and Qwen, an artificial intelligence chatbot. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
- CEO
- Yongming Wu
- Employees
- 124.32K
- Beta
- 0.39
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($73.20 ÷ $131.50) − 1 = -44.33% (DCF, example).