US · UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
- Sector
- Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
- Headquarters
- Atlanta, GA 30328
- Website
- ups.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$107.57
Market cap 98.46B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $101.03 | -6.08% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $47.66 | -55.69% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | — | — |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $38.29 | -64.4% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $47.47 | $42.75 | $5.68 | $0.00 | $59.72 |
| 2012 | $53.56 | $31.47 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $8.12 |
| 2013 | $64.02 | $49.36 | $6.95 | $0.00 | $49.38 |
| 2014 | $65.97 | $39.88 | $0.79 | $0.00 | $42.74 |
| 2015 | $69.53 | $46.84 | $2.52 | $0.00 | $41.65 |
| 2016 | $75.79 | $45.34 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $47.20 |
| 2017 | $80.87 | $57.95 | $1.80 | $0.00 | $99.65 |
| 2018 | $80.73 | $79.83 | $18.50 | $0.00 | $87.31 |
| 2019 | $73.71 | $75.07 | $4.51 | $0.00 | $55.55 |
| 2020 | $135.39 | $95.69 | $13.25 | $0.00 | $33.63 |
| 2021 | $168.32 | $141.59 | $304.69 | $26.84 | $334.34 |
| 2022 | $155.06 | $144.58 | $107.07 | $0.00 | $145.84 |
| 2023 | $137.06 | $113.52 | $7.14 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2024 | $113.84 | $96.41 | $5.37 | $0.00 | $56.28 |
| 2025 | $114.42 | $101.03 | $2.78 | $0.00 | $38.29 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates United Parcel Service, Inc.'s (UPS) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $101.03
- Current price
- $107.57
- AI upside
- -6.08%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$47.66
-55.69% upside
Graham-Dodd
—
— upside
Graham Formula
$38.29
-64.4% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| UPS | United Parcel Service, In… | $107.57 | 98.46B | -6% | -56% | — | -64% | 17.43 | 5.99 | 1.10 | 10.11 | — | 15.25 | 18.53% | 9.56% | 6.29% | 33.83% | 16.75% | 7.78% | 1.99 | 8.38 | 1.22 | 1.09 | 2.16 | -296.00% | -249.00% | -2331.00% | 4.91% | 0.54 | 12.11% | 5.56% | 96.90% | 6.59% | 14.58 | 25.93 | 1.39 | 3.06 |
| EMR | Emerson Electric Co. | $150.75 | 84.77B | -29% | -61% | — | -70% | 34.53 | 3.82 | 4.31 | 18.47 | 193.65 | -10.53 | 52.84% | 12.42% | 12.73% | 10.72% | 5.80% | 5.21% | 0.68 | 5.78 | 0.88 | 0.47 | 2.51 | 1783.00% | 300.00% | -844.00% | 3.44% | 0.32 | 9.06% | 1.54% | 53.10% | 3.14% | 40.11 | 33.66 | 4.98 | 4.07 |
| FDX | FedEx Corporation | $387.00 | 91.31B | -39% | -77% | -77% | -64% | 13.39 | 1.95 | 0.62 | 8.25 | — | 2.55 | 21.60% | 6.92% | 4.65% | 14.70% | 7.71% | 4.69% | 1.33 | 7.71 | 1.19 | 1.10 | 3.04 | -232.00% | 27.00% | -494.00% | 5.44% | 0.46 | 5.02% | 2.44% | 32.70% | 7.95% | 14.24 | 29.06 | 0.99 | 2.49 |
| GD | General Dynamics Corporat… | $357.05 | 96.54B | -14% | -59% | -98% | -22% | 23.39 | 3.84 | 1.87 | 17.37 | 174.18 | 30.41 | 15.13% | 10.19% | 8.01% | 17.66% | 13.78% | 7.44% | 0.38 | 17.06 | 1.44 | 0.78 | 1.22 | 1343.00% | 1013.00% | 2387.00% | 4.02% | 0.30 | 12.35% | 1.62% | 37.80% | 3.81% | 19.77 | 26.75 | 2.02 | 4.33 |
| HWM | Howmet Aerospace Inc. | $262.53 | 105.67B | -47% | -37% | -94% | -73% | 71.02 | 20.01 | 12.98 | 45.34 | 221.75 | 122.55 | 30.74% | 25.81% | 18.27% | 30.44% | 23.09% | 13.90% | 0.57 | 14.11 | 2.13 | 0.87 | 0.96 | 3203.00% | 1106.00% | 4647.00% | 1.34% | 1.06 | 18.93% | 0.17% | 12.00% | 1.43% | 51.37 | 76.46 | 13.26 | 13.13 |
| ITW | Illinois Tool Works Inc. | $290.63 | 83.76B | -23% | -55% | — | -67% | 27.76 | 26.39 | 5.30 | 20.05 | — | -34.54 | 44.10% | 26.28% | 19.11% | 93.75% | 29.92% | 19.64% | 2.78 | 14.44 | 1.21 | 0.80 | 1.75 | -1042.00% | 92.00% | -482.00% | 3.18% | 0.61 | 24.85% | 2.10% | 58.20% | 3.86% | 22.11 | 34.44 | 5.81 | 8.50 |
| JCI | Johnson Controls Internat… | $144.30 | 88.32B | -48% | -68% | — | -62% | 43.26 | 5.76 | 3.16 | 27.04 | 991.11 | -10.17 | 36.41% | 11.99% | 13.95% | 11.86% | 10.16% | 4.27% | 0.87 | 18.01 | 0.93 | 0.61 | 3.43 | 437.00% | 281.00% | -3984.00% | 1.30% | 0.13 | 3.96% | 1.31% | 56.70% | 9.36% | 30.15 | 88.36 | 3.61 | 2.63 |
| MMM | 3M Company | $165.32 | 87.07B | -34% | -59% | -96% | -64% | 26.42 | 18.35 | 3.46 | 15.94 | — | -30.59 | 39.55% | 18.29% | 13.03% | 76.43% | 32.37% | 8.41% | 2.75 | 6.34 | 1.71 | 0.99 | 1.32 | -2053.00% | 152.00% | 11881.00% | 1.62% | 0.24 | 13.00% | 1.36% | 36.00% | 7.36% | 20.44 | 66.81 | 3.74 | 4.26 |
| NOC | Northrop Grumman Corporat… | $724.38 | 102.81B | -21% | -53% | -99% | -59% | 26.35 | 6.61 | 2.63 | 17.43 | 1009.27 | -113.50 | 19.81% | 10.20% | 9.97% | 26.17% | 11.19% | 8.30% | 1.18 | 6.44 | 1.09 | 0.95 | 2.13 | 261.00% | 224.00% | 2617.00% | 3.00% | 0.34 | 10.47% | 1.17% | 30.90% | 3.10% | 29.33 | 37.96 | 2.99 | 3.48 |
| TDG | TransDigm Group Incorpora… | $1,302.79 | 73.57B | +92% | -45% | — | -48% | 37.80 | -8.09 | 8.88 | 23.12 | 149.89 | -3.30 | 60.14% | 47.16% | 23.49% | -25.96% | 21.99% | 8.55% | -3.10 | 2.65 | 3.21 | 2.03 | 5.96 | 2521.00% | 1122.00% | -340.00% | 2.32% | 0.93 | 12.15% | 12.28% | 464.30% | 12.92% | 25.36 | 58.15 | 11.96 | 2.03 |
| WM | Waste Management, Inc. | $240.84 | 97.14B | -30% | -56% | — | -39% | 36.15 | 9.80 | 3.88 | 16.75 | — | -12.78 | 29.08% | 18.28% | 10.74% | 29.69% | 11.31% | 5.99% | 2.29 | 5.05 | 0.89 | 0.77 | 3.15 | -162.00% | 1424.00% | 3043.00% | 2.88% | 1.09 | 8.74% | 1.36% | 49.30% | 2.16% | 26.18 | 42.82 | 4.78 | 2.50 |
About United Parcel Service, Inc.
United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, transportation, logistics, and related services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery of letters, documents, small packages, and palletized freight through air and ground services in the United States. The International Package segment provides guaranteed day and time-definite international shipping services in Europe, the Asia Pacific, Canada and Latin America, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East, and Africa. This segment offers guaranteed time-definite express options. The company also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, distribution and post-sales, and mail and consulting services in approximately 200 countries and territories. In addition, it offers truckload brokerage services; supply chain solutions to the healthcare and life sciences industry; shipping, visibility, and billing technologies; and financial and insurance services. The company operates a fleet of approximately 121,000 package cars, vans, tractors, and motorcycles; and owns 59,000 containers that are used to transport cargo in its aircraft. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
- CEO
- Carol Tome
- Employees
- 490K
- Beta
- 1.09
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($47.66 ÷ $107.57) − 1 = -55.69% (DCF, example).