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Intrinsic ValueNTN Corporation (6472.T)

Previous Close¥369.40
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
¥369.40

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

NTN Corporation is a leading global manufacturer of bearings, drive shafts, and precision equipment, serving diverse industries such as automotive, industrial machinery, renewable energy, and aerospace. The company operates across Japan, the Americas, Europe, and Asia, leveraging its extensive product portfolio, which includes rolling bearings, constant velocity joints, and condition monitoring systems. NTN’s revenue model is driven by both original equipment manufacturing (OEM) and aftermarket sales, with a strong focus on high-performance applications in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and robotics. The company’s market position is reinforced by its technological expertise in precision engineering and its ability to cater to specialized industrial demands. NTN competes in a highly fragmented global bearings market, where it differentiates itself through innovation, reliability, and a broad geographic footprint. Its strategic emphasis on renewable energy and electric mobility aligns with long-term industry trends, positioning it for sustained growth in evolving sectors.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

NTN reported revenue of JPY 836.3 billion for FY 2024, with net income of JPY 10.6 billion, reflecting a modest net margin of approximately 1.3%. Operating cash flow stood at JPY 65.1 billion, while capital expenditures were JPY 24.7 billion, indicating disciplined reinvestment. The company’s profitability metrics suggest operational challenges, likely influenced by raw material costs and competitive pricing pressures in the industrial components sector.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Diluted EPS for FY 2024 was JPY 18.65, demonstrating modest earnings power relative to its market capitalization. The company’s capital efficiency is constrained by high debt levels, with total debt at JPY 362.1 billion against cash reserves of JPY 130.0 billion. NTN’s ability to generate consistent cash flow from operations supports its debt servicing capacity but highlights the need for improved return on invested capital.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

NTN’s balance sheet shows JPY 130.0 billion in cash and equivalents against JPY 362.1 billion in total debt, resulting in a net debt position of JPY 232.1 billion. This leverage ratio suggests moderate financial risk, though the company’s industrial cyclicality warrants caution. Liquidity appears manageable, supported by operating cash flow, but deleveraging efforts could enhance financial flexibility.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

NTN’s growth is tied to industrial demand, with particular exposure to automotive and renewable energy sectors. The company paid a dividend of JPY 11 per share, reflecting a conservative payout ratio. Future growth may hinge on expanding its presence in high-growth markets like electric vehicles and wind energy, though macroeconomic headwinds could temper near-term performance.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a market cap of JPY 114.6 billion, NTN trades at a low earnings multiple, reflecting investor skepticism about its profitability and leverage. The beta of 0.579 indicates lower volatility relative to the broader market, suggesting defensive characteristics. Market expectations appear muted, with valuation likely discounting near-term operational challenges.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

NTN’s strengths lie in its diversified industrial customer base and technological expertise in precision components. However, its outlook is mixed, balancing opportunities in renewable energy and electric mobility against cyclical demand and competitive pressures. Strategic initiatives to improve margins and reduce debt will be critical for long-term value creation.

Sources

Company filings, Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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