investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic ValueMizuho Financial Group, Inc. (8411.T)

Previous Close¥6,783.00
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
¥6,783.00

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. is a leading Japanese financial services conglomerate operating across banking, trust, securities, and asset management. The company serves a diverse clientele through its five core segments: Retail & Business Banking, Corporate & Institutional, Global Corporate, Global Markets, and Asset Management. Its revenue model is anchored in interest income from loans, fee-based services (including advisory and asset management), and trading activities. Mizuho differentiates itself through its integrated financial solutions, catering to retail customers, SMEs, and large corporations with tailored products like syndicated loans, M&A advisory, and risk hedging instruments. The group maintains a strong domestic presence while expanding strategically in key international markets, including the Americas, Europe, and Asia/Oceania. Mizuho’s market position is reinforced by its scale as one of Japan’s 'megabanks,' with a focus on cross-selling synergies between its banking and securities arms. The company competes with peers like Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, leveraging its research capabilities and IT-driven services to enhance customer retention. Its global markets segment capitalizes on Japan’s low-interest-rate environment by offering yen-denominated funding solutions to multinational clients.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Mizuho reported revenue of JPY 3.12 trillion for FY 2024, with net income reaching JPY 679 billion, reflecting a robust net margin of approximately 21.7%. The group’s earnings power is supported by diversified income streams, including stable interest margins and growing fee-based services. Operating cash flow stood at JPY 1.88 trillion, underscoring efficient liquidity management, while capital expenditures were modest at JPY -63.1 billion, indicating disciplined cost control.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The group’s diluted EPS of JPY 267.88 highlights its ability to generate shareholder value despite Japan’s challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Mizuho’s capital efficiency is evident in its extensive cash reserves (JPY 72.97 trillion) and a loan-to-deposit ratio that aligns with regional banking norms. Its low beta (0.164) suggests relative resilience to market volatility, though this also reflects sensitivity to domestic monetary policy.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Mizuho maintains a solid balance sheet with total debt of JPY 58.95 trillion against cash and equivalents of JPY 72.97 trillion, indicating strong liquidity coverage. The group’s asset-heavy structure is typical for Japanese megabanks, with a focus on conservative risk-weighted asset allocation. Its Tier 1 capital ratios, though not disclosed here, are likely compliant with Basel III standards given its systemic importance.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth has been steady, driven by overseas corporate banking and asset management. The dividend payout is sustainable, with JPY 145 per share, offering a yield competitive with domestic peers. Shareholder returns may benefit from Japan’s corporate governance reforms, though loan growth remains tempered by demographic headwinds.

Valuation And Market Expectations

At a market cap of JPY 9.77 trillion, Mizuho trades at a P/E multiple of ~14.4x, in line with Japanese banking sector averages. Investors likely price in modest growth expectations, balancing its stable domestic franchise against limited near-term catalysts for re-rating.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Mizuho’s integrated model and global footprint provide strategic advantages in cross-border finance and large-scale corporate services. The outlook hinges on Japan’s economic recovery and the group’s ability to monetize digital banking initiatives. Regulatory tailwinds, such as relaxed brokerage rules, could further bolster its securities segment.

Sources

Company filings, Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044204520462047204820492050

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount