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Intrinsic Value of Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)

Previous Close$73.73
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$73.73

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) is a publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in the acquisition, development, and management of retail net lease properties. The company primarily focuses on single-tenant retail assets leased to high-quality tenants, including national and regional retailers, under long-term agreements. ADC's portfolio is diversified across sectors such as grocery, convenience stores, and home improvement, providing stability through recession-resistant tenants. The firm emphasizes a disciplined investment approach, targeting properties with strong credit tenants and strategic locations. Its market position is bolstered by a scalable platform and a conservative capital structure, enabling consistent growth in a competitive net lease environment. By maintaining a high occupancy rate and prioritizing tenant creditworthiness, ADC mitigates risk while delivering predictable cash flows to shareholders.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, ADC reported revenue of $617.1 million, reflecting steady growth driven by strategic acquisitions and lease escalations. Net income stood at $189.2 million, with diluted EPS of $1.78, supported by efficient property management and low leverage costs. Operating cash flow reached $432 million, underscoring the REIT's ability to convert rental income into distributable cash. The absence of capital expenditures highlights ADC's focus on externally managed growth through acquisitions rather than development.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

ADC demonstrates strong earnings power, with a high proportion of rental income derived from investment-grade tenants. The company’s capital efficiency is evident in its ability to fund acquisitions while maintaining a prudent leverage ratio. Operating cash flow coverage of dividends remains robust, ensuring sustainable payouts. The REIT’s focus on net lease assets minimizes operational overhead, enhancing margins and scalability.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

ADC maintains a solid balance sheet with $6.4 million in cash and equivalents and total debt of $2.83 billion. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable, supported by long-term, fixed-rate financing. The REIT’s liquidity position is adequate, with access to revolving credit facilities. Conservative leverage and staggered debt maturities reduce refinancing risk, ensuring financial flexibility for future acquisitions.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

ADC has consistently expanded its portfolio through accretive acquisitions, driving revenue growth. The company pays a reliable dividend, with an annualized payout of $3.08 per share, reflecting a high payout ratio typical of REITs. Dividend growth has been supported by contractual rent escalations and disciplined capital recycling. Future growth is expected to be fueled by strategic investments in high-quality retail assets.

Valuation And Market Expectations

ADC trades at a premium to NAV, reflecting investor confidence in its high-quality portfolio and growth prospects. Market expectations are anchored in the REIT’s ability to sustain occupancy and rental income growth. Valuation multiples align with sector peers, given ADC’s conservative leverage and predictable cash flows. The stock’s yield remains attractive to income-focused investors.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

ADC’s key advantages include a diversified tenant base, long lease durations, and a scalable acquisition platform. The REIT is well-positioned to capitalize on dislocations in the net lease market. The outlook remains positive, with management focused on maintaining balance sheet strength and pursuing disciplined growth. Macroeconomic resilience and tenant credit quality underpin ADC’s ability to navigate market cycles.

Sources

Company 10-K, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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