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Intrinsic Value of Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)

Previous Close$18.51
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$18.51

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Conagra Brands, Inc. operates as a leading packaged foods company, specializing in branded and private-label products across frozen, refrigerated, and shelf-stable categories. The company serves retail, foodservice, and commercial channels, with a diversified portfolio including well-known brands such as Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, and Healthy Choice. Conagra’s revenue model relies on volume-driven sales, pricing strategies, and cost efficiencies, positioning it as a key player in the competitive North American food industry. The company leverages its scale, distribution network, and innovation pipeline to maintain market share in a sector characterized by shifting consumer preferences and inflationary pressures. Its focus on convenience, health-conscious offerings, and sustainability initiatives aligns with evolving demand trends, reinforcing its resilience in a fragmented market.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Conagra reported FY2024 revenue of $12.05 billion, with net income of $347.2 million, reflecting margin pressures from input cost inflation and operational challenges. Diluted EPS stood at $0.72, while operating cash flow of $2.02 billion demonstrated robust cash generation. Capital expenditures of $388.1 million indicate disciplined reinvestment, though profitability metrics remain subdued compared to pre-pandemic levels due to industry-wide cost headwinds.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is tempered by volatile commodity costs and competitive pricing, though its diversified product mix mitigates sector-specific risks. Operating cash flow coverage of capital expenditures and dividends remains adequate, but elevated total debt of $8.61 billion necessitates careful liquidity management. Conagra’s capital efficiency is supported by its asset-light model and focus on high-margin categories, though leverage ratios warrant monitoring.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Conagra’s balance sheet shows $77.7 million in cash and equivalents against $8.61 billion in total debt, highlighting a leveraged position. The debt load, while manageable given stable cash flows, limits near-term financial flexibility. Shareholders’ equity is supported by consistent profitability, but interest coverage ratios may face pressure if borrowing costs rise further. The company’s liquidity profile relies on operational cash generation and disciplined debt management.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth trends reflect modest top-line expansion, with volume recovery offset by pricing actions. The dividend payout of $1.38 per share underscores Conagra’s commitment to returning capital, though yield sustainability depends on earnings stabilization. Long-term growth hinges on innovation, category expansion, and efficiency gains, with M&A remaining a potential lever for scale enhancement in a consolidating industry.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Conagra’s valuation reflects its defensive positioning in staples, though multiples are constrained by margin pressures and debt concerns. Market expectations are balanced between its stable cash flows and the need for operational improvements to restore earnings growth. Investor sentiment may hinge on execution against cost-saving initiatives and volume recovery in key categories.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Conagra’s strategic advantages include its diversified brand portfolio, distribution scale, and adaptability to consumer trends. The outlook remains cautious amid inflationary headwinds, but pricing power and efficiency programs provide levers for margin recovery. Long-term success will depend on innovation, debt reduction, and sustaining competitive relevance in a dynamic food landscape.

Sources

10-K filing for FY2024, company investor relations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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