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Intrinsic Value of Cummins Inc. (CMI)

Previous Close$369.52
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$369.52

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Cummins Inc. is a global leader in the design, manufacture, and distribution of engines, power generation systems, and related technologies. The company operates across multiple segments, including Engine, Distribution, Components, Power Systems, and New Power, catering to diverse industries such as transportation, construction, mining, and energy. Cummins' revenue model is driven by both original equipment manufacturer (OEM) sales and aftermarket services, ensuring recurring income streams. The company's strong market position is reinforced by its technological expertise, extensive distribution network, and commitment to innovation, particularly in clean energy solutions like hydrogen fuel cells and electrified power systems. Cummins competes in a highly cyclical industry but maintains resilience through geographic diversification and a broad product portfolio. Its reputation for reliability and efficiency has solidified its standing as a preferred supplier for heavy-duty and industrial applications worldwide.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Cummins reported revenue of $34.1 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $3.95 billion, reflecting a robust margin of approximately 11.6%. Diluted EPS stood at $28.37, demonstrating strong earnings power. Operating cash flow was $1.49 billion, though capital expenditures of $1.21 billion indicate significant reinvestment in growth initiatives. The company’s ability to generate consistent profitability amid cyclical demand underscores its operational efficiency.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Cummins' earnings power is evident in its $3.95 billion net income and $28.37 diluted EPS, supported by a disciplined cost structure and pricing power. The company’s capital efficiency is balanced between reinvestment ($1.21 billion in capex) and shareholder returns, with a dividend payout of $7.01 per share. Its focus on high-margin aftermarket services further enhances returns on invested capital.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Cummins maintains a solid balance sheet with $1.67 billion in cash and equivalents, though total debt of $7.6 billion suggests moderate leverage. The company’s financial health is supported by strong cash flow generation, enabling debt service and strategic investments. Its liquidity position remains adequate to navigate cyclical downturns and fund innovation in clean energy technologies.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Cummins has demonstrated steady growth, driven by demand for fuel-efficient engines and electrification solutions. The company’s dividend policy, with a $7.01 per share payout, reflects its commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Future growth is likely to be fueled by advancements in alternative power technologies and expansion in emerging markets.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Cummins' valuation reflects its leadership in engine technology and transition to sustainable power solutions. Market expectations are anchored on its ability to maintain margins while investing in electrification and hydrogen. The stock’s performance will hinge on execution in new energy segments and cyclical demand recovery in core markets.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Cummins’ strategic advantages include its technological leadership, global distribution network, and diversified product portfolio. The outlook is positive, with growth opportunities in clean energy and aftermarket services. However, macroeconomic volatility and regulatory shifts pose risks. The company’s focus on innovation and operational excellence positions it well for long-term success.

Sources

10-K filing, company investor relations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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