investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE)

Previous Close$30.73
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$30.73

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

CareTrust REIT, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in healthcare-related properties, primarily skilled nursing, senior housing, and other post-acute care facilities. The company generates revenue through long-term triple-net leases, ensuring stable cash flows with minimal operational responsibilities. Its portfolio is strategically diversified across high-demand markets, catering to the aging U.S. population, which supports consistent occupancy and rental income. CareTrust maintains a disciplined acquisition strategy, targeting properties with strong operator partnerships and growth potential. The REIT’s focus on mission-critical healthcare real estate positions it as a resilient player in a sector with inelastic demand. Its market position is further strengthened by a conservative leverage profile and a commitment to dividend sustainability, appealing to income-focused investors. The company’s ability to identify underperforming assets and reposition them for higher yields underscores its competitive edge in a fragmented industry.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

CareTrust reported revenue of $228.3 million for FY 2024, with net income of $125.1 million, reflecting a robust net margin of approximately 54.8%. Diluted EPS stood at $0.80, supported by efficient property management and low overhead costs. Operating cash flow of $244.3 million significantly exceeded net income, highlighting strong cash conversion and minimal working capital needs. Capital expenditures were modest at $8.1 million, underscoring the REIT’s asset-light model.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is driven by predictable lease income and high occupancy rates across its portfolio. With operating cash flow covering dividends comfortably, CareTrust demonstrates capital efficiency. Its focus on triple-net leases reduces operational risks, while disciplined acquisitions enhance returns on invested capital. The REIT’s ability to maintain high cash flow margins (over 100% of net income) reflects its low-capital-intensity business model.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

CareTrust maintains a solid balance sheet, with $213.8 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of $396.9 million, indicating a conservative leverage ratio. The debt-to-equity structure appears manageable, with ample liquidity to fund growth initiatives. The absence of near-term debt maturities reduces refinancing risks, supporting financial stability. The REIT’s strong cash position also provides flexibility for opportunistic acquisitions.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

CareTrust has demonstrated consistent growth through strategic acquisitions and lease escalations. The dividend payout of $1.11 per share is sustainable, with a payout ratio of approximately 139% of EPS, though covered robustly by operating cash flow. The REIT’s focus on healthcare real estate aligns with demographic trends, suggesting long-term growth potential. Dividend growth has been steady, reflecting management’s commitment to shareholder returns.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market values CareTrust’s stable cash flows and defensive sector exposure, though its P/E multiple may reflect sector-wide pressures. Investors likely price in moderate growth from accretive acquisitions and rent escalations. The REIT’s valuation metrics should be assessed against peers, considering its lower leverage and high-quality portfolio.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

CareTrust’s strategic advantages include its niche focus on healthcare real estate, strong operator relationships, and conservative financial management. The aging population and increasing healthcare demand provide tailwinds for long-term growth. Challenges include regulatory risks and operator performance, but the REIT’s diversified tenant base mitigates these. The outlook remains positive, with disciplined capital allocation driving sustainable returns.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount