investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic ValueDiageo plc (DGE.L)

Previous Close£1,675.50
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
£1,675.50

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Diageo plc is a global leader in the alcoholic beverages industry, operating across premium spirits, beer, and ready-to-drink categories. The company’s diversified portfolio includes iconic brands such as Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, Guinness, and Don Julio, catering to a broad consumer base in over 180 markets. Diageo’s revenue model is driven by brand equity, geographic diversification, and a focus on premiumization, positioning it as a dominant player in both mature and emerging markets. Its strategic emphasis on innovation, marketing, and distribution efficiency allows it to maintain competitive advantages in a highly fragmented industry. The company’s strong presence in North America, Europe, and emerging markets like Africa and Latin America underscores its resilience to regional economic fluctuations. Diageo’s market leadership is reinforced by its ability to adapt to shifting consumer preferences, including the growing demand for premium and craft spirits, as well as non-alcoholic alternatives.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Diageo reported revenue of £16.1 billion (GBp) in FY 2024, with a net income of £3.87 billion, reflecting robust profitability. The company’s operating cash flow stood at £3.26 billion, supported by disciplined cost management and pricing power. Capital expenditures of £1.2 billion indicate ongoing investments in production capacity and brand development, aligning with long-term growth objectives.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Diageo’s diluted EPS of 137 GBp demonstrates strong earnings generation, underpinned by high-margin premium brands and operational leverage. The company’s capital efficiency is evident in its ability to sustain profitability while investing in growth initiatives, though its total debt of £18.6 billion warrants monitoring given rising interest rates.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Diageo maintains a solid balance sheet with £1.13 billion in cash and equivalents, though its debt load of £18.6 billion reflects aggressive expansion and shareholder returns. The company’s leverage ratio remains manageable given its stable cash flows, but refinancing risks could emerge in a higher-rate environment.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Diageo has consistently delivered growth through organic expansion and acquisitions, particularly in premium spirits. The company’s dividend of 78.71 GBp per share underscores its commitment to shareholder returns, supported by a predictable cash flow profile. Emerging markets and premiumization trends are expected to drive future revenue growth.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a market cap of £44.9 billion, Diageo trades at a premium reflective of its strong brand portfolio and defensive characteristics. The low beta of 0.286 indicates relative stability, though valuation multiples hinge on sustained premiumization and emerging market execution.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Diageo’s strategic advantages include its unmatched brand portfolio, global distribution network, and pricing power. While near-term headwinds like inflation and geopolitical risks persist, the company’s focus on premiumization and innovation positions it well for long-term growth. Management’s disciplined capital allocation and cost controls should support margin resilience.

Sources

Company filings, Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044204520462047204820492050

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount