investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic ValueDollarama Inc. (DOL.TO)

Previous Close$183.50
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$183.50

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Dollarama Inc. is a dominant player in Canada's discount retail sector, operating a vast network of 1,421 stores as of January 2022. The company specializes in offering a curated selection of general merchandise, consumables, and seasonal products at fixed price points, primarily under CAD $4. Its value-driven model caters to cost-conscious consumers, leveraging high-volume sales and efficient inventory turnover to maintain profitability. Dollarama's vertically integrated supply chain and private-label offerings further enhance margins, while its online store expands accessibility. The company holds a leading market position in Canada's dollar store segment, benefiting from consistent demand for affordable essentials and discretionary items. Its no-frills store format and disciplined expansion strategy have solidified its reputation as a reliable low-cost retailer. Dollarama's success is underpinned by its ability to adapt merchandise to local preferences while maintaining stringent cost controls, making it a resilient performer even in economic downturns.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Dollarama reported robust revenue of CAD 6.41 billion for the fiscal year, with net income reaching CAD 1.17 billion, reflecting a healthy net margin of approximately 18.2%. The company's operating cash flow of CAD 1.64 billion underscores its ability to convert sales into cash efficiently, while capital expenditures of CAD 246.9 million indicate disciplined reinvestment in store growth and maintenance.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Dollarama's diluted EPS of CAD 4.14 demonstrates strong earnings power, supported by its high-volume, low-margin business model. The company's capital efficiency is evident in its ability to generate substantial cash flows relative to its store footprint, with a focus on optimizing inventory turnover and minimizing operating costs across its network.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

The company maintains a solid financial position with CAD 122.7 million in cash and equivalents, though it carries significant total debt of CAD 4.71 billion. Dollarama's ability to service this debt is supported by its consistent cash flow generation and stable operating performance in the defensive discount retail sector.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Dollarama has demonstrated consistent growth through strategic store expansion and same-store sales increases. The company pays a dividend of CAD 0.3818 per share, reflecting a balanced approach to returning capital to shareholders while funding growth initiatives. Its defensive sector positioning provides stability during economic fluctuations.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a market capitalization of approximately CAD 47.69 billion and a beta of 0.467, Dollarama is valued as a stable, low-volatility investment in the consumer defensive space. The market appears to price in continued steady growth from store expansion and operational efficiency gains.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Dollarama's key advantages include its market-leading position in Canadian discount retail, efficient supply chain, and proven ability to navigate inflationary environments. The outlook remains positive given the company's resilient business model, though competition from other value retailers and potential margin pressures warrant monitoring. Dollarama is well-positioned to capitalize on sustained consumer demand for value-oriented shopping.

Sources

Company filings, market data

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044204520462047204820492050

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount