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Intrinsic Value of Eversource Energy (ES)

Previous Close$65.71
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$65.71

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Eversource Energy operates as a regulated utility holding company, primarily serving New England with electricity, natural gas, and water distribution. The company generates revenue through rate-regulated operations, ensuring stable cash flows from its monopoly-like position in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. Its business model is anchored in infrastructure investments, with a focus on transmission, distribution, and renewable energy projects, aligning with regional decarbonization goals. Eversource holds a dominant market position in its service territories, benefiting from regulatory frameworks that guarantee returns on capital expenditures. The company also engages in offshore wind development through joint ventures, positioning itself as a leader in the Northeast's clean energy transition. Its diversified utility operations mitigate risks associated with any single energy source, while its scale and regulatory relationships provide a competitive moat.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Eversource reported $11.9 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of $811.7 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 6.8%. Diluted EPS stood at $2.27, supported by $2.16 billion in operating cash flow. Capital expenditures totaled $4.48 billion, underscoring the company's heavy investment in infrastructure. The regulated nature of its operations ensures predictable earnings, though high capex pressures free cash flow.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company's earnings are driven by rate-base growth and regulatory mechanisms that ensure recovery of invested capital. ROE metrics are typically in line with allowed regulatory returns, though elevated debt levels ($29.1 billion) weigh on capital efficiency. Operating cash flow covers interest obligations, but sustained capex demands may necessitate further financing.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Eversource maintains a leveraged balance sheet, with total debt of $29.1 billion against minimal cash ($26.7 million). Debt-to-equity ratios are elevated but manageable under regulatory frameworks. The company's credit profile benefits from stable utility cash flows, though rising interest rates could pressure financing costs for ongoing projects.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth is tied to rate-base expansion and renewable energy investments, particularly offshore wind. The company pays a $2.80 annual dividend per share, yielding approximately 4-5%, with a payout ratio near 120% of earnings—sustainable due to regulatory cash flow support but requiring careful monitoring if capex remains high.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Eversource trades at a premium to book value, reflecting its regulated earnings stability and growth opportunities in renewables. Market expectations hinge on successful execution of offshore wind projects and regulatory approvals for rate increases to fund investments.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

The company's strategic advantages include its entrenched regulatory position and leadership in New England's energy transition. Risks include capex overruns and political pressures on rate hikes. Long-term prospects are tied to decarbonization investments, but execution risks remain.

Sources

Company 10-K, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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