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Intrinsic Value of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)

Previous Close$57.87
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$57.87

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Etsy, Inc. operates a leading global e-commerce marketplace focused on unique, handmade, and vintage goods, as well as craft supplies. The company serves a niche market of buyers seeking personalized and non-mass-produced items, differentiating itself from broader e-commerce giants like Amazon and eBay. Etsy's revenue model is primarily driven by marketplace fees, including listing fees, transaction fees, and payment processing fees, supplemented by advertising services for sellers. The platform fosters a community-driven ecosystem, connecting over 7 million active sellers with nearly 90 million active buyers, emphasizing sustainability and small-business empowerment. Etsy's market position is strengthened by its brand recognition and loyal customer base, though it faces competition from both large e-commerce players and smaller niche platforms. The company continues to innovate with tools like Etsy Ads and Purchase Protection to enhance seller success and buyer trust.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Etsy reported revenue of $2.81 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $303.3 million, reflecting a diluted EPS of $2.25. The company generated $752.5 million in operating cash flow, demonstrating strong cash conversion from operations. Capital expenditures were modest at $14.2 million, indicating efficient use of resources. The platform's ability to maintain profitability while investing in growth initiatives underscores its operational efficiency.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Etsy's earnings power is evident in its ability to sustain profitability in a competitive e-commerce landscape. The company's capital efficiency is highlighted by its high operating cash flow relative to capital expenditures, suggesting effective reinvestment strategies. With a focus on scaling its marketplace and enhancing seller tools, Etsy is well-positioned to leverage its capital for long-term growth.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Etsy's balance sheet shows $811.2 million in cash and equivalents, providing liquidity for strategic initiatives. However, total debt stands at $2.39 billion, which warrants monitoring given the company's growth trajectory. The absence of dividends allows Etsy to reinvest cash flows into the business, supporting its expansion and innovation efforts.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Etsy has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, driven by increasing buyer and seller engagement. The company does not pay dividends, opting instead to reinvest profits into platform enhancements and market expansion. This strategy aligns with its focus on long-term value creation and market share gains in the niche e-commerce segment.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Etsy's valuation reflects its position as a leader in the handmade and vintage goods market. Investors likely anticipate continued growth in gross merchandise sales and seller adoption, though competition and macroeconomic factors could impact performance. The company's ability to innovate and scale will be critical in meeting market expectations.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Etsy's strategic advantages include its strong brand, loyal community, and focus on unique products. The company's outlook is positive, with opportunities to expand its buyer base and enhance seller tools. However, challenges such as competition and economic volatility remain. Etsy's ability to execute its growth strategy will determine its future success.

Sources

10-K, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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