investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic ValueFerguson plc (FERG.L)

Previous Close£18,440.00
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
£18,440.00

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Ferguson plc operates as a leading distributor of plumbing and heating products, serving residential, commercial, civil/infrastructure, and industrial markets across the United States and Canada. The company’s diversified product portfolio includes pipes, valves, fittings, HVAC systems, water heaters, and kitchen fixtures, complemented by value-added services such as project management, logistics, and digital design tools. Ferguson’s extensive network of 1,679 branches and 11 distribution centers ensures broad market penetration and efficient supply chain operations. The company’s revenue model is built on wholesale distribution, leveraging economies of scale and strong supplier relationships to maintain competitive pricing. Its digital sales channels further enhance accessibility for contractors and builders, reinforcing its position as a one-stop solution provider. Ferguson’s focus on high-growth segments like water infrastructure and energy-efficient HVAC systems aligns with broader industry trends, supporting its resilience in cyclical markets. The company’s market leadership is underpinned by its technical expertise, localized service, and ability to cater to both large-scale projects and smaller tradespeople.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Ferguson reported revenue of £29.6 billion for FY 2024, reflecting steady demand in its core markets. Net income stood at £1.7 billion, with diluted EPS of 853p, demonstrating robust profitability. Operating cash flow of £1.9 billion highlights efficient working capital management, while capital expenditures of £372 million indicate ongoing investments in distribution infrastructure and digital capabilities. The company’s ability to convert sales into cash underscores its operational discipline.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is evident in its consistent net income margins, supported by a scalable distribution model. Ferguson’s capital efficiency is reflected in its ability to generate substantial operating cash flow relative to its asset base. The balance between reinvestment and shareholder returns is managed prudently, with a focus on maintaining high returns on invested capital.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Ferguson’s balance sheet remains solid, with £571 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of £5.5 billion. The debt level is manageable given the company’s strong cash flow generation. The financial structure supports both growth initiatives and shareholder returns, with no immediate liquidity concerns. The company’s leverage ratio is within industry norms, reflecting a balanced approach to financing.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Ferguson has demonstrated consistent growth, driven by market share gains and strategic acquisitions. The company’s dividend policy is shareholder-friendly, with a dividend per share of 210.4p, reflecting a commitment to returning capital. Growth initiatives focus on expanding digital capabilities and enhancing service offerings, positioning the company for sustained long-term growth in a fragmented market.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a market capitalization of approximately £26 billion and a beta of 1.065, Ferguson is valued as a stable yet growth-oriented industrial distributor. The market appears to price in continued execution on margins and market share gains, supported by the company’s strong competitive positioning and cyclical recovery potential in its end markets.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Ferguson’s strategic advantages include its extensive distribution network, technical expertise, and diversified customer base. The outlook remains positive, with tailwinds from infrastructure spending and energy efficiency trends. The company’s focus on digital transformation and operational efficiency should further strengthen its market position, though macroeconomic volatility remains a monitorable risk.

Sources

Company filings, London Stock Exchange disclosures

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044204520462047204820492050

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount