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Intrinsic ValueGFL Environmental Inc. (GFL.TO)

Previous Close$58.49
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$58.49

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

GFL Environmental Inc. is a diversified environmental services provider operating across Canada and the United States, specializing in non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure and soil remediation, and liquid waste management. The company serves a broad clientele, including municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers, through comprehensive waste collection, transportation, recycling, and disposal services. Its infrastructure segment focuses on soil decontamination and complementary demolition and excavation services, while its liquid waste division handles industrial and commercial liquid waste processing and resale. GFL has established itself as a key player in the waste management sector, leveraging its integrated service offerings and geographic footprint to maintain competitive positioning. The company’s ability to provide end-to-end environmental solutions enhances its market resilience, particularly in regions with stringent waste regulations. Despite operating in a capital-intensive industry, GFL’s diversified revenue streams and operational scale support its long-term stability.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

GFL reported revenue of CAD 7.86 billion for the period, reflecting its broad service portfolio and market reach. However, the company posted a net loss of CAD 722.7 million, with diluted EPS of -CAD 2.11, indicating profitability challenges. Operating cash flow stood at CAD 1.54 billion, suggesting robust cash generation from core operations, though capital expenditures of CAD 1.19 billion highlight significant reinvestment needs.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s negative net income and EPS underscore earnings pressure, likely driven by high operational costs and debt servicing. Despite this, its operating cash flow demonstrates underlying earnings power, supporting liquidity for debt management and growth initiatives. Capital efficiency remains constrained by the industry’s inherent capital demands, particularly in waste processing infrastructure.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

GFL’s balance sheet shows CAD 133.8 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of CAD 10.55 billion, indicating a leveraged position. The high debt load may limit financial flexibility, though the company’s steady cash flow generation provides some mitigation. Investors should monitor debt reduction progress and refinancing risks.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth is likely tied to acquisitions and regional expansion, given the mature nature of the waste management industry. GFL offers a modest dividend of CAD 0.09 per share, signaling a balanced approach between shareholder returns and reinvestment. Future dividend sustainability will depend on improving profitability and deleveraging.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a market cap of CAD 23.94 billion and a beta of 1.04, GFL trades with moderate volatility relative to the market. The valuation reflects its scale and sector positioning, though profitability concerns may weigh on investor sentiment. Market expectations likely hinge on execution in cost management and debt reduction.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

GFL’s integrated service model and geographic diversification provide strategic advantages in a fragmented industry. The outlook depends on operational efficiency gains and disciplined capital allocation. Regulatory tailwinds in environmental services could bolster demand, but execution risks remain, particularly in balancing growth with leverage.

Sources

Company filings, market data

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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