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Intrinsic Value of HCI Group, Inc. (HCI)

Previous Close$138.99
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$138.99

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

HCI Group, Inc. operates as a diversified insurance holding company, primarily focused on property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, and real estate. The company generates revenue through underwriting premiums, primarily in Florida, where it specializes in homeowners' insurance, a market characterized by high exposure to natural disasters. HCI leverages its underwriting expertise and risk management capabilities to maintain profitability in a volatile sector, positioning itself as a nimble player in a competitive landscape dominated by larger insurers. Its subsidiary, TypTap Insurance Group, utilizes advanced data analytics and technology to streamline underwriting and claims processing, differentiating HCI through innovation. The company also invests in real estate, adding a complementary revenue stream that diversifies its earnings. HCI’s market position is bolstered by its ability to adapt to regulatory changes and catastrophic events, ensuring resilience in a challenging operating environment.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

HCI reported revenue of $749.5 million for FY 2024, with net income of $110.0 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 14.7%. Diluted EPS stood at $8.89, demonstrating strong profitability. Operating cash flow was robust at $331.8 million, supported by efficient premium collection and claims management. Capital expenditures were minimal at -$4.1 million, indicating a capital-light business model focused on underwriting and technology rather than heavy infrastructure investments.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is evident in its ability to generate consistent underwriting profits despite exposure to catastrophic risks. HCI’s capital efficiency is highlighted by its high return on equity, driven by disciplined risk selection and reinsurance strategies. The strong operating cash flow relative to net income suggests effective working capital management, with premiums collected ahead of claims payouts, enhancing liquidity.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

HCI maintains a solid balance sheet with $532.5 million in cash and equivalents, providing ample liquidity to cover claims and operational needs. Total debt of $186.4 million is manageable, with a conservative leverage ratio. The company’s financial health is further supported by its reinsurance programs, which mitigate peak risk exposures, ensuring stability even in adverse scenarios.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

HCI has demonstrated growth through premium expansion and technological investments in its TypTap subsidiary. The company pays a dividend of $1.60 per share, reflecting a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. While growth is prioritized, the dividend policy remains sustainable given the strong cash flow generation and conservative payout ratio.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market values HCI based on its ability to navigate the cyclical insurance market and its technological edge in underwriting. The current valuation reflects expectations of sustained profitability and growth in its niche markets, with investors pricing in resilience to catastrophic events and regulatory changes.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

HCI’s strategic advantages include its tech-driven underwriting platform, geographic focus on Florida, and diversified revenue streams. The outlook remains positive, with opportunities to expand its market share in underserved regions and further integrate data analytics into operations. However, exposure to climate-related risks and regulatory scrutiny remain key challenges to monitor.

Sources

Company filings, 10-K, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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