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Intrinsic Value of Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH)

Previous Close$221.55
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$221.55

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Molina Healthcare, Inc. operates as a managed care organization specializing in government-sponsored healthcare programs, primarily Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace plans. The company serves low-income individuals and families, focusing on cost-effective care coordination and value-based reimbursement models. Molina differentiates itself through localized service delivery, leveraging its expertise in managing complex populations with chronic conditions. Its market position is strengthened by strategic partnerships with providers and state agencies, ensuring competitive access to government contracts. The company operates in a highly regulated sector where scale, operational efficiency, and compliance are critical to maintaining margins. Molina’s revenue is predominantly fee-based, tied to per-member-per-month premiums, with performance incentives tied to quality metrics. As Medicaid expansion and Medicare Advantage enrollment grow, Molina is well-positioned to capitalize on demographic and policy tailwinds.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Molina reported $40.65 billion in revenue for FY 2024, reflecting steady growth driven by membership gains and premium rate adjustments. Net income stood at $1.18 billion, with diluted EPS of $20.42, indicating robust profitability. Operating cash flow of $644 million underscores efficient working capital management, while capital expenditures of -$100 million suggest disciplined reinvestment. The company’s margin stability is supported by its focus on administrative cost containment and risk-adjusted pricing.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Molina’s earnings power is anchored in its ability to scale government-sponsored programs with predictable margins. The company’s capital efficiency is evident in its low capex intensity, allowing free cash flow generation to fund growth initiatives and debt reduction. With a capital-light model, Molina prioritizes return on invested capital through organic enrollment growth and selective market expansion.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Molina maintains a solid balance sheet with $4.66 billion in cash and equivalents against $3.12 billion in total debt, providing ample liquidity. The company’s leverage is manageable, supported by consistent cash flow generation. Regulatory capital requirements are met comfortably, ensuring operational flexibility in a dynamic reimbursement environment.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Molina’s growth is driven by Medicaid expansion and aging population trends, with revenue compounding annually. The company does not pay dividends, opting instead to reinvest cash flows into strategic acquisitions and technology upgrades. Membership growth and geographic diversification remain key priorities, supported by regulatory tailwinds in managed care.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Molina trades at a premium to peers, reflecting its strong execution and growth prospects. Investors price in sustained enrollment gains and margin stability, though regulatory risks remain a monitorable factor. The stock’s valuation aligns with its earnings trajectory and sector multiples.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Molina’s localized expertise and government-focused model provide durable competitive advantages. The outlook remains positive, with policy support for Medicaid and Medicare Advantage likely to sustain growth. Operational efficiency and compliance excellence position the company to navigate industry headwinds, though reimbursement pressures require ongoing vigilance.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), investor presentations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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