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Intrinsic Value of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

Previous Close$171.57
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$171.57

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading independent refiner, marketer, and transporter of petroleum products in the U.S., operating through its Refining & Marketing and Midstream segments. The company owns and operates one of the largest refining systems in the country, with a combined crude oil processing capacity of approximately 2.9 million barrels per day across 13 refineries. MPC’s diversified revenue streams include refining crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other products, as well as logistics and wholesale marketing. The Midstream segment, managed through MPLX LP, provides critical infrastructure, including pipelines, terminals, and storage facilities, enhancing supply chain efficiency. MPC’s scale and integrated operations position it as a key player in the energy sector, benefiting from economies of scale and strategic geographic locations near major demand centers. The company’s market position is further strengthened by its retail network under the Speedway and Marathon brands, which provides stable cash flows and direct consumer access. MPC’s ability to adapt to fluctuating crude oil prices and regulatory changes underscores its resilience in a cyclical industry.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Marathon Petroleum reported revenue of $138.9 billion for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, with net income of $3.4 billion and diluted EPS of $10.13. Operating cash flow stood at $8.7 billion, reflecting strong operational performance. Capital expenditures totaled $2.5 billion, indicating disciplined investment in maintaining and upgrading infrastructure. The company’s profitability metrics demonstrate its ability to navigate volatile refining margins and optimize operational efficiency.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

MPC’s earnings power is evident in its robust operating cash flow generation, which supports both reinvestment and shareholder returns. The company’s capital efficiency is highlighted by its ability to generate significant cash flow relative to its capital expenditures. With a focus on optimizing refinery utilization and cost management, MPC maintains a competitive edge in capital allocation, balancing growth initiatives with financial returns.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

As of December 31, 2024, Marathon Petroleum held $3.2 billion in cash and equivalents, with total debt of $28.8 billion. The company’s leverage ratio reflects its strategic use of debt to fund growth and operations while maintaining liquidity. MPC’s financial health is supported by its strong cash flow generation, which provides flexibility to manage debt obligations and invest in high-return projects.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

MPC has demonstrated a commitment to returning capital to shareholders, with a dividend per share of $3.38 in FY 2024. The company’s growth strategy focuses on optimizing its refining portfolio and expanding its midstream infrastructure. While refining margins remain cyclical, MPC’s diversified operations and focus on cost control position it to capitalize on market opportunities and sustain dividend growth over time.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Marathon Petroleum’s valuation reflects its position as a leading refiner with integrated midstream assets. Market expectations are influenced by its ability to generate stable cash flows and navigate industry volatility. The company’s share price performance is closely tied to refining margins, crude oil price differentials, and regulatory developments, which investors monitor for long-term value creation.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

MPC’s strategic advantages include its scale, geographic diversity, and integrated operations, which provide resilience in a dynamic energy market. The company’s outlook is supported by its focus on operational excellence, cost management, and strategic investments in high-return projects. While macroeconomic and regulatory risks persist, MPC’s strong market position and financial flexibility position it well for sustained performance.

Sources

10-K filings, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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