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Intrinsic ValueNestlé S.A. (NESN.SW)

Previous CloseCHF73.43
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
CHF73.43

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Nestlé S.A. is a global leader in the packaged foods and beverages industry, operating across three key geographic segments: Europe, Middle East and North Africa; the Americas; and Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. The company’s diversified portfolio spans baby foods, bottled water, cereals, chocolates, coffee, culinary products, dairy, healthcare nutrition, ice cream, and pet care, supported by iconic brands like Nescafé, KitKat, Purina, and Gerber. Nestlé’s revenue model is anchored in mass-market penetration, premiumization in categories like coffee (Nespresso) and pet care, and strategic acquisitions to bolster growth in high-margin segments. Its market position is reinforced by extensive distribution networks, R&D capabilities in nutrition science, and a focus on sustainability, which appeals to evolving consumer preferences. The company competes with peers like Unilever and Danone but maintains an edge through scale, brand equity, and operational efficiency. Nestlé’s ability to adapt to regional tastes while leveraging global supply chains underscores its resilience in the consumer defensive sector.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Nestlé reported CHF 91.7 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of CHF 10.9 billion, reflecting a robust margin of approximately 11.9%. Operating cash flow stood at CHF 16.7 billion, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities. Capital expenditures of CHF 5.96 billion indicate ongoing investments in production and innovation, though free cash flow remains healthy. The company’s efficiency is evident in its ability to sustain profitability despite inflationary pressures and commodity cost volatility.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Diluted EPS of CHF 4.19 underscores Nestlé’s earnings power, supported by pricing strategies and cost optimization. The company’s capital efficiency is reflected in its disciplined allocation to high-return segments like coffee and pet care, while divesting lower-margin businesses. Nestlé’s ROIC, though not explicitly provided, is likely competitive given its industry-leading margins and asset-light model in key divisions.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Nestlé’s balance sheet shows CHF 5.56 billion in cash and equivalents against total debt of CHF 63.6 billion, indicating moderate leverage. The debt level is manageable given its stable cash flows and defensive sector positioning. The company’s liquidity position remains solid, with ample capacity to fund dividends, share buybacks, and M&A activities.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Organic growth is driven by pricing power and premiumization, particularly in coffee and pet care. Nestlé’s dividend policy is shareholder-friendly, with a CHF 3.05 per share payout in FY 2024, supported by consistent cash flow generation. The company’s focus on high-growth categories like health science and plant-based foods positions it for long-term revenue expansion.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a market cap of CHF 227.6 billion and a beta of 0.41, Nestlé is valued as a low-volatility defensive stock. Investors likely price in steady growth, margin resilience, and dividend reliability, though premium valuations may reflect its brand strength and geographic diversification.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Nestlé’s strategic advantages include its unmatched brand portfolio, global scale, and R&D prowess in nutrition. The outlook remains positive, with growth levers in premium categories, sustainability initiatives, and emerging markets. Challenges include navigating input cost inflation and shifting consumer trends, but the company’s adaptability and pricing power provide a buffer.

Sources

Company filings, Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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