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Intrinsic Value of ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS)

Previous Close$73.12
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$73.12

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

ONE Gas, Inc. operates as a regulated natural gas utility, serving residential, commercial, and industrial customers across Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. The company generates revenue primarily through the distribution of natural gas, with tariffs approved by state regulatory commissions ensuring stable cash flows. Its business model is anchored in long-term infrastructure investments, supported by a cost-of-service regulatory framework that allows for predictable earnings. ONE Gas holds a strong regional market position, benefiting from its exclusive service territories and low-risk operational profile. The company’s focus on safety, reliability, and customer service reinforces its reputation as a dependable utility provider. In a sector characterized by steady demand and regulatory oversight, ONE Gas differentiates itself through operational efficiency and strategic capital deployment. Its market position is further strengthened by its ability to pass through commodity costs to customers, mitigating exposure to volatile gas prices.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

ONE Gas reported revenue of $2.08 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $222.85 million, translating to diluted EPS of $3.90. Operating cash flow stood at $368.41 million, reflecting the company’s ability to convert earnings into cash. Capital expenditures of $703.17 million highlight ongoing investments in infrastructure, which are critical for maintaining service reliability and regulatory compliance. The company’s profitability metrics are consistent with its regulated utility model, emphasizing stable margins and controlled operating costs.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is underpinned by its regulated operations, which provide a steady return on invested capital. ONE Gas demonstrates disciplined capital allocation, with expenditures focused on system upgrades and expansion. The balance between earnings growth and reinvestment is managed to meet regulatory requirements while delivering shareholder returns. The diluted EPS of $3.90 reflects efficient use of equity capital, supported by a predictable revenue stream.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

ONE Gas maintains a solid balance sheet, with $57.99 million in cash and equivalents and total debt of $3.33 billion. The debt level is manageable within the context of its regulated asset base and stable cash flows. The company’s financial health is further supported by its ability to generate consistent operating cash flow, which covers interest obligations and funds capital investments without undue strain.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth for ONE Gas is driven by incremental rate base expansion and regulatory-approved projects. The company has a history of returning capital to shareholders, with a dividend per share of $2.66 in FY 2024. Dividend sustainability is supported by earnings stability and a payout ratio aligned with industry peers. Future growth will likely hinge on regulatory approvals and organic demand increases in its service territories.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The company’s valuation reflects its status as a low-risk utility with predictable earnings. Market expectations are anchored in steady dividend yields and moderate earnings growth. ONE Gas trades at multiples consistent with regulated gas utilities, with investors valuing its defensive characteristics and reliable cash flows. The stock’s performance is influenced by interest rate trends and regulatory developments.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

ONE Gas benefits from its exclusive service territories, regulatory protections, and focus on operational efficiency. The outlook remains stable, with growth tied to infrastructure investments and regulatory mechanisms. The company is well-positioned to navigate economic cycles, given the essential nature of its services. Strategic initiatives will likely focus on system modernization and customer retention, ensuring long-term sustainability.

Sources

10-K filing, company investor relations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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