investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI)

Previous Close$86.35
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$86.35

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. operates as a regional bank holding company, primarily serving commercial and private clients across Texas and the broader U.S. Its core revenue model is driven by interest income from loans and leases, complemented by fee-based services such as treasury management and wealth advisory. The bank focuses on middle-market businesses, real estate developers, and high-net-worth individuals, leveraging its deep regional expertise to foster long-term client relationships. Texas Capital Bancshares distinguishes itself through a relationship-driven approach, offering tailored financial solutions that align with the unique needs of its clientele. The bank operates in a competitive regional banking sector, where it competes with both larger national banks and smaller community institutions. Its market positioning is reinforced by a strong Texas footprint, a reputation for client-centric service, and a diversified loan portfolio that mitigates sector-specific risks. While the bank has faced challenges in scaling beyond its regional stronghold, its niche focus on commercial lending and private banking provides stability in volatile economic conditions.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, Texas Capital Bancshares reported revenue of $932.3 million, with net income of $77.5 million, translating to diluted EPS of $2.03. Operating cash flow stood at $481.1 million, while capital expenditures were -$64.8 million, reflecting disciplined investment in infrastructure. The bank's profitability metrics indicate moderate efficiency, with room for improvement in cost management and asset utilization compared to peers.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The bank's earnings power is primarily driven by its loan portfolio, with net interest margin performance closely tied to macroeconomic conditions. Capital efficiency appears balanced, with a focus on maintaining adequate liquidity while optimizing returns on equity. The absence of dividends suggests reinvestment of earnings to support growth or strengthen the balance sheet, though this may limit appeal to income-focused investors.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Texas Capital Bancshares maintains a robust balance sheet, with cash and equivalents of $3.19 billion against total debt of $1.55 billion, indicating strong liquidity. The debt-to-equity ratio appears manageable, supported by a diversified asset base. The bank's financial health is further underscored by its ability to generate consistent operating cash flows, providing flexibility to navigate economic cycles.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth trends reflect a focus on organic expansion within its core markets, with limited dividend distributions (currently $0 per share). The bank prioritizes reinvestment in its operations and potential acquisitions to enhance scale. Future growth will likely depend on its ability to capitalize on Texas' economic momentum while maintaining underwriting discipline in its lending activities.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The bank's valuation metrics suggest market expectations are tempered, reflecting its regional focus and moderate profitability. Investors likely weigh its strong Texas presence against challenges in achieving higher returns on equity. The absence of a dividend may further influence valuation, as the market assesses the bank's ability to deploy capital effectively for long-term growth.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Texas Capital Bancshares' strategic advantages lie in its deep regional expertise and relationship-driven model, which foster client loyalty. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with growth potential tied to Texas' robust economy. However, the bank must navigate interest rate volatility and competitive pressures to sustain profitability. Strategic initiatives to enhance digital capabilities and operational efficiency could further strengthen its market position.

Sources

10-K filing, company financial statements

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount