investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic ValueExxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

Previous Close$112.16
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$112.16

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global leader in the integrated energy sector, operating across upstream exploration and production, downstream refining and marketing, and chemical manufacturing. The company generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, and petrochemicals, leveraging its vast operational scale and technological expertise. ExxonMobil maintains a dominant market position due to its vertically integrated structure, which provides cost efficiencies and resilience against commodity price volatility. The firm competes in a highly cyclical industry but benefits from long-term contracts, diversified assets, and a strong brand presence in both developed and emerging markets. Its chemical segment further diversifies revenue streams by supplying high-value products to industrial and consumer markets. ExxonMobil’s strategic investments in low-carbon initiatives, such as carbon capture and biofuels, reflect its adaptive approach to evolving energy demand and regulatory pressures.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

ExxonMobil reported revenue of $339.2 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $33.7 billion, reflecting robust profitability despite fluctuating energy prices. The company’s diluted EPS of $7.84 underscores its earnings strength, supported by disciplined cost management and operational efficiency. Operating cash flow of $55.0 billion highlights ExxonMobil’s ability to generate substantial liquidity, even as capital expenditures totaled $24.3 billion, indicating sustained investment in growth and maintenance projects.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

ExxonMobil’s earnings power is evident in its consistent cash generation, with operating cash flow covering capital expenditures and dividends comfortably. The company’s capital efficiency is reinforced by its focus on high-return projects and technological innovation, which enhance resource recovery and operational performance. This disciplined approach ensures competitive returns on invested capital, even in challenging market conditions.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

ExxonMobil maintains a solid balance sheet, with $23.2 billion in cash and equivalents and total debt of $68.8 billion. The company’s financial health is supported by strong cash flows, enabling it to manage debt levels effectively while funding shareholder returns and strategic investments. Its liquidity position provides flexibility to navigate cyclical downturns and capitalize on growth opportunities.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

ExxonMobil has demonstrated a commitment to shareholder returns, with a dividend per share of $3.89 in FY 2024. The company’s growth strategy balances reinvestment in core operations with selective ventures into emerging energy technologies. While production volumes may fluctuate, ExxonMobil’s focus on cost efficiency and portfolio optimization supports long-term value creation.

Valuation And Market Expectations

ExxonMobil’s valuation reflects its position as a blue-chip energy company, with market expectations centered on stable cash flows and disciplined capital allocation. Investors likely price in moderate growth prospects, balanced by the firm’s resilience to commodity cycles and its progressive dividend policy. The stock’s performance is closely tied to oil price trends and broader energy sector dynamics.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

ExxonMobil’s strategic advantages include its integrated business model, technological leadership, and global scale, which provide a competitive edge in the energy sector. The company’s outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with a focus on balancing traditional energy investments with transitional and low-carbon initiatives. Long-term success will depend on its ability to adapt to evolving energy markets and regulatory environments.

Sources

10-K, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount