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Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC)

Previous Close
$22.26
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
High
Valuation methodValue, $Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)77.94250
Intrinsic value (DCF)2.07-91
Graham-Dodd Method22.782
Graham Formula42.9693

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACHC) is a leading provider of behavioral healthcare services in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, operating a network of 238 facilities with approximately 10,600 beds as of March 2022. The company delivers inpatient psychiatric care, specialty treatment, residential programs, and outpatient services, addressing critical mental health and addiction treatment needs. Headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee, Acadia serves a growing demand for behavioral healthcare amid rising mental health awareness and policy support. The company’s diversified facility portfolio positions it as a key player in the $100B+ U.S. behavioral health market. With no dividend payouts, Acadia reinvests cash flows into facility expansions and acquisitions, targeting underserved regions. Its capital-intensive model balances high regulatory oversight with recurring revenue from government and private payers.

Investment Summary

Acadia Healthcare presents a high-growth opportunity in the fragmented behavioral health sector, leveraging scale advantages and demographic tailwinds (rising mental health prevalence). However, its leveraged balance sheet ($2.1B debt vs. $76M cash) and dependence on reimbursement policies (Medicaid/Medicare ~50% of revenue) pose risks. Margins (8.1% net) lag acute-care peers due to labor costs, but same-facility revenue growth (7.5% YoY in 2023) reflects pricing power. The stock’s beta of 1.01 suggests market-aligned volatility. Valuation at 0.66x revenue (vs. industry 1.2x) appears discounted, but capex-heavy model ($690M in 2023) may pressure free cash flow. Catalysts include state Medicaid expansions and tuck-in acquisitions.

Competitive Analysis

Acadia’s competitive edge stems from its national scale (2nd largest behavioral health provider by beds) and diversified payor mix, reducing reliance on any single contract. Its vertically integrated model—spanning acute inpatient to outpatient—creates referral synergies unmatched by regional operators. However, labor shortages (industry-wide 20% turnover) constrain capacity utilization (~85% bed occupancy). Acadia’s facility-level autonomy allows localized care protocols, but standardization lags Universal Health’s behavioral division (UHS). The company’s M&A expertise (15+ acquisitions since 2015) provides growth leverage in a fragmented market where 60% of providers operate single facilities. Payer negotiations benefit from centralized billing infrastructure, though concentration risk exists with top 3 payers contributing 35% of revenue. Technology adoption (telehealth portals) trails tech-forward rivals like LifeStance Health (LFST), but EHR integration at 90% of facilities supports care coordination. Regulatory moats (certificate-of-need laws in 35 states) protect incumbent positions.

Major Competitors

  • Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS): UHS operates 331 behavioral health facilities (vs. Acadia’s 238) with stronger acute-care integration. Higher EBITDA margins (17% vs. Acadia’s 15%) from shared hospital infrastructure, but slower behavioral-focused growth (3% YoY vs. Acadia’s 7%). Heavy exposure to Medicaid (39% revenue) creates policy risk.
  • LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST): Pure-play outpatient mental health provider with tech-enabled telehealth platform. Higher growth (22% revenue CAGR) but unprofitable (negative EBITDA). Lacks Acadia’s inpatient capabilities, focusing on lower-acuity therapy. Geographic overlap in Sun Belt markets.
  • Encompass Health Corporation (EHC): Dominates inpatient rehab (152 hospitals) but expanding behavioral via joint ventures. Stronger cash flows (9% FCF yield) but limited direct competition—complements rather than competes with Acadia’s psychiatric focus.
  • Community Health Systems, Inc. (CYH): Hospital operator with behavioral units in 25% of facilities. Distressed balance sheet (6x net debt/EBITDA) limits behavioral investment. Acadia’s pure-play model avoids CYH’s acute-care overhead.
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