US · ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc.
- Sector
- Industrials · Airlines, Airports & Air Services
- Headquarters
- Seattle, WA 98188
- Website
- alaskaair.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$38.55
Market cap 5.92B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $45.86 | +18.96% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $32.17 | -16.55% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $16.40 | -57.45% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $24.76 | -35.78% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $15.62 | $58.24 | $6.52 | $16.65 | $34.38 |
| 2012 | $25.85 | $36.73 | $23.87 | $21.22 | $34.84 |
| 2013 | $40.56 | $50.43 | $50.87 | $29.66 | $67.03 |
| 2014 | $61.14 | $64.68 | $27.13 | $30.51 | $54.26 |
| 2015 | $74.97 | $81.87 | $47.32 | $39.89 | $80.25 |
| 2016 | $91.05 | $80.93 | $43.42 | $23.95 | $89.47 |
| 2017 | $62.10 | $80.15 | $443.78 | $33.25 | $309.29 |
| 2018 | $54.41 | $41.22 | $286.75 | $13.17 | $44.44 |
| 2019 | $45.21 | $37.57 | $240.90 | $29.51 | $87.71 |
| 2020 | $68.02 | $27.92 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $522.17 |
| 2021 | $48.82 | $63.12 | $170.41 | $33.16 | $298.69 |
| 2022 | $46.10 | $51.89 | $3,404.30 | $16.33 | $28.34 |
| 2023 | $36.59 | $31.51 | $6,847.35 | $25.55 | $29.12 |
| 2024 | $60.64 | $36.40 | $1,964.85 | $28.75 | $63.20 |
| 2025 | $50.77 | $45.86 | $943.98 | $16.40 | $24.75 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s (ALK) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $45.86
- Current price
- $38.55
- AI upside
- +18.96%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$32.17
-16.55% upside
Graham-Dodd
$16.40
-57.45% upside
Graham Formula
$24.76
-35.78% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| ALK | Alaska Air Group, Inc. | $38.55 | 5.92B | +19% | -17% | -57% | -36% | 58.66 | 1.42 | 0.41 | 8.22 | — | 10.11 | 59.66% | 2.13% | 0.70% | 2.36% | 2.42% | 0.50% | 1.67 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 0.41 | 4.84 | -7175.00% | 2134.00% | -28525.00% | -5.78% | 0.19 | -3.95% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 35.10 | -31.37 | 0.75 | 1.12 |
| ACA | Arcosa, Inc. | $107.48 | 5.27B | -29% | -60% | -59% | -22% | 25.54 | 2.03 | 1.85 | 11.57 | 20.94 | 5.53 | 22.45% | 11.80% | 7.23% | 8.25% | 7.41% | 4.26% | 0.58 | 3.13 | 2.20 | 1.26 | 2.28 | 12199.00% | 1220.00% | -4380.00% | 3.30% | 0.68 | 4.43% | 0.19% | 4.80% | 5.25% | 19.50 | 37.78 | 2.30 | 2.66 |
| BCO | The Brink's Company | $116.77 | 4.85B | -34% | -57% | — | -45% | 25.09 | 12.95 | 1.00 | 12.27 | 66.96 | -3.53 | 25.81% | 11.13% | 4.00% | 70.99% | 11.45% | 3.01% | 10.71 | 2.38 | 1.51 | 1.13 | 4.09 | 3747.00% | 497.00% | 11445.00% | 8.28% | 0.29 | 14.34% | 0.80% | 20.10% | 8.99% | 13.51 | 18.12 | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| BZ | Kanzhun Limited | $16.08 | 7.41B | +20% | +29% | -56% | -5% | 36.32 | 3.83 | 7.74 | 22.88 | 82.83 | 3.90 | 83.15% | 15.95% | 21.54% | 11.08% | 155.73% | 8.41% | 0.02 | — | 3.60 | 3.55 | -1.21 | 4385.00% | 2358.00% | 2845.00% | 4.72% | 0.85 | 417.14% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 3.00% | 36.27 | 15.84 | 5.78 | 9.05 |
| CPA | Copa Holdings, S.A. | $138.61 | 5.72B | +35% | +94% | -62% | +52% | 8.11 | 1.96 | 1.51 | 5.63 | 68.20 | 2.04 | 31.65% | 22.64% | 18.56% | 26.09% | 19.77% | 10.90% | 0.92 | 8.32 | 1.23 | 1.07 | 1.84 | 1189.00% | 498.00% | -953.00% | 5.66% | 0.78 | 8.59% | 4.88% | 39.60% | 5.04% | 8.15 | 21.66 | 1.84 | 2.48 |
| ECG | Everus Construction Group… | $120.87 | 6.17B | -29% | +1,098% | -76% | +25% | 30.18 | 9.67 | 1.63 | 18.58 | 74.40 | 12.52 | 12.12% | 7.07% | 5.39% | 38.34% | 30.82% | 13.37% | 0.17 | 12.34 | 1.76 | 1.28 | -0.20 | 4057.00% | 3147.00% | -2180.00% | 1.48% | 0.21 | 14.23% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.62% | 22.76 | 66.94 | 1.61 | 6.78 |
| GVA | Granite Construction Inco… | $134.46 | 5.87B | -52% | +130% | -76% | -41% | 30.27 | 4.95 | 1.32 | 16.17 | 78.52 | 9.76 | 16.07% | 6.38% | 4.36% | 17.59% | 12.97% | 5.47% | 1.38 | 5.98 | 1.22 | 0.99 | 2.58 | 3855.00% | 1040.00% | 335.00% | 5.66% | 0.32 | 19.90% | 0.39% | 11.80% | 1.21% | 24.31 | 20.76 | 1.55 | 2.94 |
| MSM | MSC Industrial Direct Co.… | $93.84 | 5.24B | -44% | -63% | — | -74% | 24.14 | 3.47 | 1.28 | 14.01 | — | 8.31 | 40.75% | 8.32% | 5.29% | 14.34% | 12.39% | 8.10% | 0.39 | 13.04 | 1.68 | 0.66 | 1.28 | -2205.00% | -135.00% | -2262.00% | 5.01% | 0.46 | 12.67% | 3.94% | 95.10% | 5.92% | 16.88 | 21.98 | 1.40 | 5.15 |
| OMAB | Grupo Aeroportuario del C… | $122.16 | 5.9B | +11% | -42% | — | -31% | 19.81 | 9.40 | 6.63 | 11.85 | 236.25 | -11.64 | 75.58% | 56.01% | 33.46% | 49.36% | 29.98% | 18.37% | 1.21 | — | 1.32 | 1.09 | 1.07 | 839.00% | 591.00% | 2535.00% | 6.96% | 1.59 | 35.12% | 4.22% | 83.70% | 4.23% | 13.01 | 15.79 | 7.29 | 5.28 |
| POWL | Powell Industries, Inc. | $523.60 | 6.36B | -63% | +28% | -79% | -52% | 22.82 | 6.44 | 3.74 | 15.16 | 109.13 | 6.56 | 29.37% | 19.73% | 16.37% | 32.17% | 115.17% | 17.74% | 0.00 | — | 2.09 | 1.86 | -1.86 | 2091.00% | 908.00% | 6011.00% | 3.75% | 0.38 | 105.73% | 0.31% | 7.10% | 3.88% | 16.76 | 23.59 | 3.31 | 8.25 |
| SKYW | SkyWest, Inc. | $104.08 | 4.21B | -8% | +54% | +16% | +129% | 9.57 | 1.49 | 1.01 | 5.59 | 28.83 | 1.49 | 61.58% | 15.22% | 10.55% | 16.62% | 10.64% | 5.90% | 0.87 | 5.92 | 0.65 | 0.42 | 2.31 | 3320.00% | 1503.00% | -10000.00% | 0.00% | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 3.43% | 9.36 | — | 1.43 | 1.26 |
About Alaska Air Group, Inc.
Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The company operates through three segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. It flies to approximately 120 destinations throughout North America. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
- CEO
- Benito Minicucci
- Employees
- 29.77K
- Beta
- 1.17
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($32.17 ÷ $38.55) − 1 = -16.55% (DCF, example).