US · CHDN
Churchill Downs Incorporated
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical · Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
- Headquarters
- Louisville, KY 40222
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$98.65
Market cap 6.41B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $115.73 | +17.31% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $65.56 | -33.54% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $17.41 | -82.35% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $79.46 | -19.46% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $8.09 | $29.78 | $56.04 | $5.71 | $16.96 |
| 2012 | $10.16 | $25.13 | $114.18 | $3.41 | $7.36 |
| 2013 | $14.70 | $34.34 | $26.03 | $6.54 | $7.54 |
| 2014 | $17.77 | $28.90 | $2.92 | $0.00 | $5.52 |
| 2015 | $22.92 | $37.18 | $185.00 | $0.00 | $34.82 |
| 2016 | $24.50 | $34.19 | $131.66 | $1.08 | $17.34 |
| 2017 | $44.42 | $40.01 | $2.74 | $7.46 | $0.00 |
| 2018 | $42.64 | $43.97 | $3.98 | $18.69 | $93.56 |
| 2019 | $57.77 | $43.13 | $4.89 | $6.18 | $66.09 |
| 2020 | $125.10 | $65.13 | $0.76 | $0.00 | $12.17 |
| 2021 | $105.92 | $71.05 | $170.95 | $10.54 | $185.49 |
| 2022 | $118.43 | $89.30 | $102.90 | $21.57 | $121.43 |
| 2023 | $111.44 | $94.39 | $801.52 | $22.26 | $236.20 |
| 2024 | $111.57 | $91.93 | $333.30 | $25.40 | $107.58 |
| 2025 | $93.78 | $115.73 | $98.52 | $17.41 | $79.46 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Churchill Downs Incorporated's (CHDN) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $115.73
- Current price
- $98.65
- AI upside
- +17.31%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$65.56
-33.54% upside
Graham-Dodd
$17.41
-82.35% upside
Graham Formula
$79.46
-19.46% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorpora… | $98.65 | 6.41B | +17% | -34% | -82% | -19% | 17.24 | -32.78 | 2.27 | 6.96 | — | -32.78 | 33.58% | 25.17% | 12.98% | 87.52% | 16.60% | 9.68% | -3.96 | 2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 | -634.00% | 701.00% | 11927.00% | 7.45% | 8.66 | 15.41% | 0.46% | 8.00% | 66.17% | 10.11 | 15.05 | 2.55 | 12.09 |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Hold… | $125.30 | 10.43B | +14% | -41% | -85% | -89% | 17.11 | 5.71 | 3.54 | 11.78 | — | -10.64 | 48.37% | 32.33% | 20.70% | 35.42% | 22.91% | 10.91% | 1.56 | 9.93 | 4.85 | 3.97 | 1.39 | -1179.00% | -667.00% | -137.00% | 6.09% | 1.79 | 19.72% | 0.85% | 14.60% | 5.93% | 12.42 | 18.62 | 4.02 | 2.88 |
| BIRK | Birkenstock Holding plc | $41.65 | 7.66B | +31% | -45% | -56% | +24% | 20.18 | 2.58 | 3.35 | 12.13 | 24.21 | -19.16 | 59.11% | 26.20% | 16.61% | 13.03% | 11.16% | 7.09% | 0.48 | 7.27 | 2.81 | 1.17 | 1.49 | 8333.00% | 1622.00% | -1875.00% | 4.10% | 0.82 | 7.90% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.97% | 14.55 | 27.74 | 3.81 | 3.11 |
| BYD | Boyd Gaming Corporation | $83.23 | 6.28B | +73% | -46% | +47% | +229% | 3.66 | 2.58 | 1.65 | 3.46 | 1.38 | 38.40 | 42.14% | 21.43% | 45.05% | 87.98% | 12.92% | 27.83% | 1.25 | 5.56 | 0.54 | 0.45 | 1.04 | 26446.00% | 412.00% | -3022.00% | 5.76% | 1.00 | 7.25% | 0.86% | 3.20% | 22.83% | 11.01 | 24.85 | 2.36 | 2.43 |
| HRB | H&R Block, Inc. | $30.62 | 3.88B | +110% | +50% | — | +79% | 11.10 | 75.66 | 1.79 | 8.27 | 169.42 | -6.92 | 44.53% | 22.01% | 16.11% | 674.99% | 48.24% | 18.69% | 26.41 | 10.60 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 1.38 | 655.00% | 417.00% | -888.00% | 8.90% | 0.52 | 44.74% | 2.93% | 32.60% | 9.43% | 9.75 | 13.48 | 2.15 | 3.22 |
| LNW | Light & Wonder, Inc. | $99.75 | 8.43B | — | — | — | -34% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 70.80% | 20.95% | 10.54% | 47.97% | 12.36% | 6.12% | 6.16 | 2.28 | 1.61 | 1.06 | 3.41 | 11029.00% | 986.00% | -287.00% | — | 0.86 | 7.83% | — | 0.00% | — | — | — | — | — |
| MHK | Mohawk Industries, Inc. | $125.27 | 7.74B | -7% | -62% | +16% | -63% | 20.02 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 8.17 | — | 1.16 | 23.87% | 4.73% | 3.43% | 4.64% | 4.06% | 2.80% | 0.33 | 28.63 | 2.19 | 1.02 | 1.67 | -2715.00% | -48.00% | -932.00% | 8.32% | 0.39 | 6.23% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.78% | 18.26 | 15.11 | 0.86 | 2.03 |
| MNSO | MINISO Group Holding Limi… | $18.02 | 5.61B | +65% | -26% | -88% | +4,259% | 16.43 | 4.20 | 2.55 | 12.31 | 2.53 | 5.01 | 44.94% | 19.51% | 15.40% | 27.05% | 49.62% | 16.17% | 0.30 | 256.83 | 2.04 | 1.50 | -1.00 | 65000.00% | 68876.00% | -1560.00% | 3.25% | 0.38 | 26.72% | 2.87% | 47.20% | 3.60% | 11.98 | 28.26 | 2.34 | 5.61 |
| MTN | Vail Resorts, Inc. | $135.81 | 4.88B | +64% | -55% | — | -40% | 17.99 | 12.63 | 1.81 | 9.61 | 74.79 | -3.46 | 42.78% | 18.89% | 9.45% | 51.91% | 12.06% | 5.19% | 8.11 | 3.26 | 0.63 | 0.49 | 3.45 | 2405.00% | 274.00% | -1488.00% | 5.96% | 0.33 | 9.30% | 6.12% | 110.10% | 11.16% | 14.94 | 26.16 | 2.82 | 1.52 |
| MUSA | Murphy USA Inc. | $390.74 | 7.24B | -12% | -59% | -73% | -74% | 16.53 | 12.48 | 0.40 | 11.00 | — | 49.81 | 5.01% | 3.81% | 2.43% | 64.31% | 16.30% | 10.16% | 5.22 | 6.67 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 3.22 | -4.00% | -425.00% | -390.00% | 4.81% | 0.88 | 10.68% | 0.53% | 8.80% | 8.89% | 14.89 | 29.40 | 0.57 | 6.95 |
| SGHC | Super Group (SGHC) Limite… | $10.70 | 5.41B | +243% | -49% | -93% | -37% | 25.15 | 5.12 | 1.75 | 10.95 | — | 15.53 | 49.59% | 15.51% | 6.67% | 20.45% | 53.49% | 10.95% | 0.13 | 43.27 | 1.25 | 1.07 | -1.30 | -113774.00% | 1816.00% | 15174.00% | 6.72% | 0.66 | 67.47% | 1.55% | 39.00% | 4.23% | 10.04 | 13.24 | 1.56 | 6.26 |
About Churchill Downs Incorporated
Churchill Downs Incorporated operates as a racing, online wagering, and gaming entertainment company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated three pari-mutuel gaming entertainment venues with approximately 3,050 historical racing machines (HRMs) in Kentucky; TwinSpires, an online wagering platform for horse racing, sports, and iGaming; nine retail sportsbooks; and casino gaming in eight states with approximately 11,000 slot machines and video lottery terminals, and 200 table games. It also offers streaming video of live horse races, replays, and an assortment of racing and handicapping information; and provides the Bloodstock Research Information Services platform for horse racing statistical data. In addition, the company manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks, off-track betting facilities, and other pari-mutuel wagering businesses. Churchill Downs Incorporated was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
- CEO
- William C. Carstanjen
- Employees
- 6.48K
- Beta
- 0.64
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($65.56 ÷ $98.65) − 1 = -33.54% (DCF, example).