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Intrinsic Value of Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)

Previous Close$5,632.27
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$5,632.27

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Booking Holdings Inc. operates as a global leader in online travel and related services, leveraging a diversified portfolio of brands including Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, Kayak, and OpenTable. The company primarily generates revenue through a merchant model, where it earns commissions on bookings, and an agency model, where it facilitates transactions between customers and service providers. Its platform connects travelers with accommodations, flights, rental cars, and dining options, serving both leisure and business segments. Booking Holdings dominates the online travel agency (OTA) space, competing with Expedia and Airbnb, but distinguishes itself through its extensive global inventory, multilingual support, and strong technological infrastructure. The company benefits from network effects, as its vast supplier base attracts more users, reinforcing its market leadership. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships further solidify its position, enabling cross-platform synergies and geographic expansion. Despite regulatory scrutiny and competitive pressures, Booking Holdings maintains a resilient business model with high margins and scalable operations.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, Booking Holdings reported revenue of $23.7 billion, reflecting robust demand for travel services post-pandemic. Net income stood at $5.9 billion, with diluted EPS of $172.69, underscoring strong profitability. Operating cash flow reached $8.3 billion, highlighting efficient cash generation, while capital expenditures were modest at $429 million, indicating a capital-light model. The company’s ability to convert revenue into cash efficiently supports reinvestment and shareholder returns.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Booking Holdings demonstrates exceptional earnings power, driven by high-margin commission-based revenue and scalable technology. The company’s capital efficiency is evident in its ability to generate substantial free cash flow, which funds growth initiatives and debt management. With minimal capital intensity, Booking Holdings allocates resources strategically, balancing organic expansion with opportunistic acquisitions to enhance its ecosystem.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

As of FY 2024, Booking Holdings held $16.2 billion in cash and equivalents, providing ample liquidity. Total debt was $17.1 billion, reflecting a manageable leverage profile given the company’s strong cash flow. The balance sheet remains healthy, with sufficient flexibility to navigate economic cycles and invest in growth opportunities. Prudent financial management ensures stability despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Booking Holdings has consistently capitalized on the recovery in global travel demand, with growth driven by both volume and pricing. The company does not pay dividends, instead prioritizing share repurchases, with $34.92 per share returned to investors in FY 2024. This approach aligns with its strategy to reinvest in high-return opportunities while enhancing shareholder value through buybacks.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market values Booking Holdings at a premium, reflecting its leadership in the OTA sector and strong earnings trajectory. Investors anticipate sustained growth, supported by secular trends in online travel adoption and the company’s competitive advantages. Valuation multiples remain elevated, signaling confidence in its ability to maintain profitability and market share.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Booking Holdings benefits from its scale, brand recognition, and technological edge, which create barriers to entry for competitors. The outlook remains positive, with growth expected in emerging markets and alternative accommodations. However, regulatory risks and competition from disruptors like Airbnb require ongoing innovation. The company’s strategic focus on user experience and operational efficiency positions it well for long-term success.

Sources

10-K, investor presentations, Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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