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Intrinsic Value of Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM)

Previous Close$179.68
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$179.68

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Howmet Aerospace Inc. operates as a leading global supplier of advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries. The company specializes in lightweight metals, particularly aluminum and titanium, which are critical for high-performance aircraft components, jet engines, and fastening systems. Its revenue model is driven by long-term contracts with major aerospace OEMs, defense contractors, and industrial manufacturers, ensuring stable cash flows and recurring demand. Howmet’s competitive edge lies in its proprietary manufacturing processes, stringent quality standards, and deep relationships with blue-chip customers like Boeing, Airbus, and GE Aerospace. The company benefits from secular trends in fuel-efficient aircraft and defense spending, positioning it as a key enabler of next-generation aviation technology. Its market leadership in fasteners and forged wheels further diversifies its exposure beyond aerospace, providing resilience against cyclical downturns.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Howmet reported $7.43 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of $1.16 billion, reflecting a robust 15.5% net margin. Diluted EPS stood at $2.81, supported by disciplined cost management and pricing power in its aerospace segments. Operating cash flow of $1.3 billion underscores strong conversion of earnings into cash, while capital expenditures of $321 million indicate a focus on maintaining rather than aggressively expanding capacity.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company demonstrates solid earnings power, with operating cash flow covering capital expenditures by a 4:1 ratio, allowing for debt reduction and shareholder returns. Its capital-light model prioritizes high-return incremental investments in automation and process optimization, evident in its steady ROIC improvement. Howmet’s focus on premium aerospace components ensures above-industry-average margins despite raw material cost volatility.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Howmet maintains a balanced capital structure with $564 million in cash against $3.47 billion of total debt. The leverage ratio appears manageable given consistent cash generation, and liquidity is sufficient to meet near-term obligations. The company has steadily reduced debt since its 2020 separation from Arconic, aligning with its investment-grade credit profile targets.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth is tied to commercial aerospace recovery and defense budget expansions, with aftermarket sales providing stability. The $0.27 annual dividend per share (1.0% yield) signals a conservative payout policy, prioritizing reinvestment and opportunistic buybacks. Management has guided for mid-single-digit organic revenue growth in 2024, with margin expansion potential from operational improvements.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a forward P/E of ~25x (based on FY2024 EPS), the market prices in Howmet’s exposure to aerospace upcycles and defense spending tailwinds. Premium valuation reflects its niche positioning in mission-critical components and expectations for sustained margin discipline. Consensus estimates project high-single-digit EPS growth through 2025.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Howmet’s technical expertise in lightweight materials and entrenched OEM relationships provide durable competitive advantages. Near-term headwinds include supply chain normalization in aerospace, but long-term demand for fuel-efficient aircraft and defense modernization programs support positive fundamentals. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on industry trends while maintaining financial flexibility.

Sources

Company 10-K, Investor Presentations, Bloomberg

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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