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Intrinsic Value of REX American Resources Corporation (REX)

Previous Close$54.68
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$54.68

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

REX American Resources Corporation operates in the renewable energy sector, primarily focusing on ethanol production and related byproducts. The company generates revenue through the sale of ethanol, distillers grains, and non-food-grade corn oil, leveraging its strategic partnerships with ethanol production facilities. REX holds a niche position in the biofuels industry, benefiting from regulatory tailwinds supporting renewable energy but faces competition from larger integrated energy players and fluctuating commodity prices. Its asset-light model, which includes equity investments in ethanol plants rather than direct operations, allows for capital efficiency while maintaining exposure to industry growth. The company’s market positioning is further strengthened by its focus on high-efficiency production facilities, though its smaller scale limits bargaining power compared to industry giants. REX’s success hinges on ethanol demand, government policies, and its ability to navigate volatile feedstock costs.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

REX reported revenue of $642.5 million for FY 2025, with net income of $58.2 million, translating to diluted EPS of $3.30. Operating cash flow stood at $64.2 million, though capital expenditures of $71.3 million resulted in negative free cash flow. The company’s profitability reflects its ability to manage production costs amid fluctuating ethanol and corn prices, though margins remain sensitive to commodity cycles.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is tied to ethanol market dynamics, with diluted EPS of $3.30 indicating moderate profitability. Capital efficiency is mixed, as high capex relative to operating cash flow suggests reinvestment needs, though its asset-light structure mitigates heavy fixed costs. REX’s returns are influenced by plant-level performance and commodity pricing, requiring disciplined cost management.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

REX maintains a solid balance sheet, with $196.3 million in cash and equivalents against $21.1 million in total debt, reflecting strong liquidity. The negligible debt load provides flexibility, though the lack of dividends suggests capital retention for growth or operational needs. The company’s financial health is robust, with low leverage and ample cash reserves.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth is contingent on ethanol demand and regulatory support, with no dividends paid in FY 2025, indicating a focus on reinvestment. The company’s expansion depends on optimizing existing partnerships rather than aggressive capacity additions. Trends in renewable fuel adoption and feedstock costs will dictate future performance, with limited visibility on dividend initiation.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a moderate earnings multiple, REX’s valuation reflects its niche position and exposure to volatile ethanol markets. Investors likely price in regulatory risks and commodity price swings, balancing growth potential against cyclicality. Market expectations appear tempered, with limited premium for its renewable energy alignment.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

REX’s strategic advantages include its asset-light model and focus on high-efficiency ethanol production. However, the outlook is cautious due to reliance on commodity prices and policy support. The company’s ability to navigate feedstock volatility and scale selectively will determine its trajectory, with opportunities tied to broader renewable energy adoption.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), CIK 0000744187

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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