investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Terex Corporation (TEX)

Previous Close$52.12
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$52.12

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Terex Corporation operates as a global manufacturer of materials processing machinery and aerial work platforms, serving industries such as construction, infrastructure, and recycling. The company generates revenue through the design, production, and sale of equipment under well-known brands like Genie and Powerscreen. Terex holds a competitive position in niche markets, leveraging its engineering expertise and aftermarket services to foster customer loyalty and recurring revenue streams. Its diversified product portfolio mitigates cyclical risks inherent in heavy machinery demand. The company competes with larger industrial conglomerates by focusing on operational agility and targeted innovation, particularly in sustainable and automated equipment solutions. Terex’s market position is reinforced by its global distribution network and strong relationships with rental companies, which account for a significant portion of sales.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Terex reported $5.1 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of $335 million, reflecting a 6.5% net margin. Diluted EPS stood at $4.96, supported by disciplined cost management and pricing strategies. Operating cash flow was $326 million, though capital expenditures of $137 million indicate ongoing investments in production capacity. The company’s asset turnover and working capital efficiency remain key focus areas to sustain profitability amid input cost volatility.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is driven by its high-margin aftermarket services and selective pricing adjustments. ROIC trends suggest improving capital allocation, particularly in automation and electrification R&D. Free cash flow conversion has been stable, enabling debt reduction and shareholder returns. Terex’s capital-light model for certain product lines enhances flexibility, though supply chain dependencies pose efficiency risks.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Terex maintains a manageable leverage profile, with total debt of $2.58 billion offset by $388 million in cash. The debt-to-EBITDA ratio aligns with industry peers, supported by consistent EBITDA generation. Liquidity remains adequate, with undrawn credit facilities providing cushion. The balance sheet reflects a focus on deleveraging while funding growth initiatives, though interest coverage metrics warrant monitoring in rising-rate environments.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Organic growth is tied to infrastructure spending cycles and equipment replacement demand, with recent emphasis on electrified machinery. The $0.68 annual dividend per share yields approximately 1.3%, reflecting a conservative payout ratio. Share repurchases have been sporadic, suggesting prioritization of operational investments. Geographic expansion in emerging markets and acquisitions in niche segments remain potential growth levers.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a forward P/E multiple in line with machinery sector averages, Terex’s valuation implies moderate growth expectations. Market pricing appears to discount cyclical headwinds but recognizes the company’s margin resilience. Analyst consensus projects mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025, contingent on construction activity and supply chain normalization.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Terex’s strategic focus on product innovation and dealer network expansion underpins its competitive moat. Near-term challenges include raw material inflation and geopolitical disruptions, while long-term opportunities lie in sustainability-driven equipment demand. Management’s execution on pricing and cost controls will be critical to maintaining outperformance in a fragmented market.

Sources

10-K filing, company investor relations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount